Meat Puppet

I maintain that chaos is the future and beyond it is freedom. Confusion is next and next after that is the truth.

[Meat Puppet @daydreamnative]

To the sunrise and the sunset
The master and his servant
Have exactly the same fate
It's a sunrise and a sunset
From a cradle to a casket
There is no way to escape
The sunrise and the sunset
Hold your sadness like a puppet
Just keep putting on the play

[Meat Puppet @daydreamnative]

@fergieweather Awesome sky just before sunrise in Yatton this morning. Camera never captures the pink shades that are so vibrant to the eye but the way it brought out all the texture of the cloud base was very cool.

[Meat Puppet @daydreamnative]

@AndyHazelton @VORTEXJeff Also enjoyed the -60Pa/s large-scale vertical velocity, summoning of the 400K potential temp contour, bizarre yet foreboding sim IR sat, and absurd vertical temp profile within the eye.

[Meat Puppet @daydreamnative]

The simulated IR sat was also quite the bizarre sight, and the deep warmth of the eye astonishing. Deeply unphysical of course but cool to see all the same.

[Meat Puppet @daydreamnative]

@fergieweather STY Bavi broke several HWRF runs in a quite fascinating way. 192kt 10m winds, 285kt at 850hPa, w/ central pressures as low as 826hPa so only a few hundred feet up! Also large-scale vertical velocities -50 to -60Pa/s and 400K pot. temp contour making an appearance.

[Meat Puppet @daydreamnative]

@fergieweather The altitude explains the diurnal oscillations in 850mb temps but what causes the sub-daily oscillation of 500mb height? My best guess is it’s an artefact of the way the model handles GPH over mountainous terrain since it seems to be every 6hr step?

[Meat Puppet @daydreamnative]

@dussoljean @Djpuco Working at ESSL probably helps. 😄 (If this is actually public by chance though would love a link!)

[Meat Puppet @daydreamnative]

@Sausius_wx Those 2-4km lapse rates are insane. If not for the SBCINH we’d be looking at quite significant tornado potential too.

[Meat Puppet @daydreamnative]

@fergieweather @PaulBlight6 @jamjake01 Nearby PWS had peak rainfall rates of 90mm/hr and almost 25mm in under 45 minutes.

[Meat Puppet @daydreamnative]

For our region tomorrow too.

[Meat Puppet @daydreamnative]

@fergieweather If that cap can be overcome this week there could be some serious potential there…

[Meat Puppet @daydreamnative]

@PaulBlight6 You sure Friday is off the table? GEFS at least still shows potential and WRF-NMM has a decent Theta-E plume.

[Meat Puppet @daydreamnative]

@VORTEXJeff Quite a lot faster if that 133kt downshear Corfidi vector is involved.

[Meat Puppet @daydreamnative]

@fergieweather What is this I don’t even

[Meat Puppet @daydreamnative]

@PaulBlight6 Of course no more than a curiosity at this range, but 12Z EC develops a weak heat low that advects 20-22°C Td’s into E Anglia and backs low-level winds to generate a parameter space that would present substantial tornado risk by UK standards.

[Meat Puppet @daydreamnative]

@MesocastUK @ThermoConveyor 👀

[Meat Puppet @daydreamnative]

@fergieweather Some rather ‘interesting’ Skew-T’s from 12Z EC for East Anglia Friday, with a weak heating-driven surface low advecting 20-22°C Td’s and backing low-level winds…

[Meat Puppet @daydreamnative]

@MesocastUK @ThermoConveyor Looks like it could be quite a potent setup for elevated storms into the evening if forcing is present. Large hail analogues, ~1100J/kg DCAPE and steep lapse rates just above the LFC plus the shear sorely lacking from today’s setup.

[Meat Puppet @daydreamnative]

@fergieweather Elevated storms tmrw evening could be quite active it appears - much more respectable shear compared to today/tmrw afternoon. 4.25” hail analogue is eye-catching, as is the ~1100J/kg DCAPE. Good thing not surface-based looking at 0-1km SRH too!

[Meat Puppet @daydreamnative]

Appears elevated storms Weds night may have better kinematics to work with though, particularly around the S Dorset coast…

[Meat Puppet @daydreamnative]

@fergieweather This CAPE/shear mismatch feels like some sort of cruel joke. Not uncommon to see big CAPE without the other necessary ingredients tail-end of UK heatwaves of course but this one is so close to delivering, add 20-30kt to those mid-level SW-lies and it’s a real one.