Good evening.
I’m getting a lot of questions about whether my conviction has been impaired or my thesis has changed about Bitcoin with its recent price weakness. The answer is an emphatic no. Why? Because I like to keep it simple and focus on first principles. While other assets are enjoying the warmth of the hot ball of money, Bitcoin will simply continue to reflect the debasement of all government sponsored currencies over the long run. Nothing more. Nothing less. Hope this helps.
Have a great night.
$MSTR — 2024 and 2026 are separated by two years, yet the structure looks nearly identical.
Same duration.
Same wave count.
Same bear trap.
The last time this pattern appeared, a major breakout of the range followed.
Scenario A:
Bitcoin stops going down only,
STRC goes back par ($100),
Strategy continues accumulating Bitcoin,
The market realizes that their emotional projections onto Bitcoin due to it's price were unwarranted.
And a long recovery and ultimately new highs begin.
"Bitcoin isn't backed by anything."
Let me stop you right there.
Bitcoin is backed by energy. Real energy. Kilowatts. Heat. Physics.
The kind of backing you can't print, fake, or vote into existence at an emergency Fed meeting.
Every block mined is a thermodynamic proof of work. Not a promise. Not a policy. Proof.
The issuance schedule has never been amended by a committee. Not once. Not ever. Because there is no committee.
There's just math. Cold, indifferent, and immune to political theater.
The network is secured by more raw computing power than anything humanity has ever built. Hundreds of exahashes per second standing guard. Every single day.
Now let's talk about what is backed by nothing.
The dollar.
It's is backed by confidence. Specifically, confidence in the institution that printed $6 trillion in two years while telling you 3% inflation was healthy and you should be grateful for the soft landing.
In the same people who can't pass an audit.
Who fund wars with a credit card.
Who promise solvency while sitting on $39 trillion in debt and accelerating.
"Backed by nothing" isn't an attack on Bitcoin.
It's a confession about the dollar.
Follow if you're serious about building wealth they can't print away.
If Strategy sells MSTR to pay the dividend, it's a ponzi.
If Strategy sells Bitcoin to pay the dividend, it's a death spiral.
If Strategy sells STRC to buy Bitcoin, the common stockholders are being "diluted".
If Strategy uses the USD reserve to pay off the debt, it's a "fatal error".
At some point you have to realize the bear thesis has become a Choose Your Own Adventure book for people who hate the ending.
Capital markets are funding the AI buildout at historic scale: ~$400B over 6 months. Bitcoin ETFs have seen ~$4B of outflows since May 14, pressuring $BTC. This is a capital rotation, not a Bitcoin impairment. Volatility creates opportunity.
$GOOG's proposed $80B capital raise includes a $15B convertible preferred and a $40B ATM. Financing tools popularized by $MSTR to acquire Bitcoin are now being used by a Mag 7 company to build AI. AI and Bitcoin are the digital rails of the future.
🚨 AWESOME! President Trump just said he hosted right-wing Brazilian presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro in the Oval Office
Hopefully he wins! The right wing is rising 🇺🇸 🇧🇷
“It was very nice having Flávio Bolsonaro in the Oval Office of the White House — A smart young man who loves his Country, Brazil, very much! President DONALD J. TRUMP”
Bitcoin was at an all time high only ~8 months ago and today sentiment is horrendous.
High CAGR comes with high volatility. This is par for the course.