Founding CEO & CIO of $8B asset manager. Retired 2017. Wannabe cyclist, full time Dad. Market engaged - post sarcoma resection & salvage circa 1H 2020.
@AlphaMind101 It’s all part of the mosaic. Which includes shifting regimes, or not. Momentum vs reversion to the mean, as a ‘for instance’. Yes a vague response, but that’s appropriate and emphasised the point. It’s not precise math, ‘never’ will be.
@kittysquiddy 100%! And the faster services rise, the quicker goods fall, particularly as the "real" pie shrinks from the negative wealth effect and inflation.
@SoccerMomTrades Standard QE regime playbook that will not work in current tightening regime. That was Fed comes to the rescue playbook. This is a 75 bps ++ regime. What am I missing? Delusional dream.
@kittysquiddy Related to this is an inability of producers to lock in future prices. Not just curve messaging but real economic impact to finance production in a rational manner. Bullish for natural gas as related production from oil drilling is reduced regardless of NG forward prices.