dcard1

Occam's Razor Applied

[dcard1 @dcard1]

Lebanon stopped being a real sovereign state when the Palestinians started the civil war there, attacking Christians in Southern Lebanon. Before long everybody was fighting each other there and outside players (Syria and Iran) deeply extended their influence....

.... and Hezbollah was born

[dcard1 @dcard1]

@JordanM10724168 @MaxNordau https://t.co/fCOmbkP0X1

[dcard1 @dcard1]

The USA forced Israel to the negotiating table to save Anwar Sadat from horrific public embarrassment.

Israel had encircled the massive Egyptian Third Army, had complete control of the skies. The USA forced Israel allow food and water and medicine through to army (UN trucks) with lots of pressure from the Soviets.

Yes, it was made to look like a stalemate to save Sadat.

And Sadat turned completely away from her Soviet sponsors, and became an ally of the USA after that.

Six year later, Sadat would come into Israel and reach his hands out in peace, and Israel gave the Sinai back on that deal.

[dcard1 @dcard1]

Sorry. But Google AI often wrong.

Ask Google something like:

"Hey Google. Is it true that after Israel suffered heavy losses on the surprise attack in 1973 on Oct 6th, that Israel had decimated the Syrian Army on the Golan by Oct 10th, and by Oct 14th had routed the Egyptians in the second largest tank battle in world history.

Is it true that the USA only delivered their first weapons, three F-4 aircraft on Oct 14th, and Israel still had lots of available aircraft on that date.

Why do some people say that the USA saved Israel in that war? "

You will get a very different response.

[dcard1 @dcard1]

What a great thread on this chat. I grew tired of upvoting nearly every comment on this thread.

Here are two "tells" that show what Vance is made of.

Two nights ago he was on Fox's Jesse Waters show. Jesse came out swinging about the undeniable Pentagon leak that Israel was spying on Trump's administration as if it was an indisputable fact.

Remember that the same Pentagon "intelligence office" also leaked to the press months ago that the US massive attack on Iran nuclear facilities was largely ineffective.

And the White House had already disputed the recent leak as untrue.

Did Vance correct Jesse about the validity of that report.

NO!

Months ago I watched Vance at a Turning Point event. An audience question began how Israel was an Apartheid State, and the Gazans were experiencing a Genocide.

Charlie would have politely corrected that assertion.

What did Vance do? He said nothing. The non-correction appears to be acknowledgment of some truth there.

I will not vote for that guy.

[dcard1 @dcard1]

You are the devious Putz. Israel told Hezbollah that if thy attack Israeli cities across the border, if they are trying to kill innocent Israeli civilians....

.... then Beirut is going to get hammered.

Trump and Hezbollah agreed with that formula.

And Hezbollah broke it, attacking Israeli cities across the border.

Who care what Iran said? Who cares that they tried to put their own spin on this.

My opinion, any attack by Iran's external armies, Hezbollah, Houthis, Iraqi militias, should result in a direct attack against Iran. Pummel them. Make it so painful that Iran tells her external armies to stand down.

[dcard1 @dcard1]

If you want to know what really happened, you can read it in every minor detail in the following book. Names, dates, intelligence reports.

All of the strange un-explained things come out. All the pieces of the puzzle fall into place and it all makes sense.

HINT: Israel were not the bad guys in that play..

https://t.co/Z2pmt9T4Iv

[dcard1 @dcard1]

What an idiot. That guy (Phil) has no idea of the history there.

The USA threw the UK, France, and Israel under the bus after the 1956 Sinai War, on behalf of Egypt.

The USA was constantly trying to un-seat the Soviets as Egypt's main sponsors. By the later 1960's, Egypt was very nearly a rump Soviet State with Soviet bases there (just before the 1967 War).

The USA was successful in ousting the Soviets right after the 1973 Yom Kippur War in clever set of moves (Kissinger) using Israel as the lever to save Sadat.

Arab oil, and the rise of Nasser's pan-Arab unification strategy made Egypt a very important asset in the Cold War. Israel brought absolutely no value to US national interests in those years.

[dcard1 @dcard1]

The White House has denied these allegations against Israel. Why did Vance not straighten Jesse out on that topic?

The Pentagon intelligence group that supposedly made this claim about Israel has been bashed by the White House before concerning statements questioning the success of the US bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities.

The Deep State is deeply embedded. Hegseth just took out the head of that group.

Vance REALLY gives me the creeps.

[dcard1 @dcard1]

Let's review the hard facts:

The USS Liberty is commandeered by the NSA, a spy agency, a week before the conflict began. It was no longer in control by the US Navy Sixth Fleet.

It was parked 11 miles off the Gaza coast, in range of Israeli defense land communications. Why there, and not off the Egyptian coast far away?

There were nine Israeli overflights where it appeared to be friendly encounters. On the tenth approach, the Liberty knew they were about to be attacked. How did they know?

There were not one, but three attempts by the US Sixth Fleet to call back the Liberty to evacuate the area. The most sophisticated communications vessel in the world at that time, with every technology know to man, including earth-moon-earth communications direct back to the NSA offices in Maryland.

The Israelis just so happened to be carrying Napalm, a perfect weapon to melt lots of aluminum structures holding aluminum antennas all over the topside of that vessel. The first to get hit was the gyro adjusted 16 foot moon parabolic antenna.

The only torpedo to hit the Liberty, hit perfectly below deck directly into the NSA-staffed communications room killing everyone there.

Few understand that although a political ally, the US still had an arms embargo against Israel since 1947. JFK had sold Israel the very first defensive weapons to protect against Soviet aircraft attack (Egyptian and Syrian pilots) just a few years earlier (HAWK surface to air missiles).

Furthermore, the State Department, CIA, NSA had been against the creation of the Israeli state in 1947, worked against Israel (and Britain and France) in the 1956 Suez War (Eisenhower almost hostile to Israel). Arab oil, and the hugely important Nasser (Egypt) attempting to unite the Arab world was far more important to America's interest than a financially struggling, resource-less Israel. TURNING THE EGYPTIANS AWAY FROM HER SOVIET SPONSORS WAS A TOP PRIORITY. (Kissinger Machiavellian machinations successful in 1973, nearly (inadvertently) destroying Israel.

*********************
I am a big believer in Occam's Razor. Strip away the nonsense. Look at the hard facts, and seek an explanation, a theory, that puts all the puzzle pieces together that explains everything. 98% of the time, that hypothesis IS THE REALITY!

An entire chapter about the Liberty in this book brought it home for me. Incredibly detailed, names, dates, places and sources:
https://t.co/Z2pmt9T4Iv

That the NSA would underestimate Israel's ability to decrypt their communication trail to British bases on Cyprus and the subsequent forwarding to Egyptian intelligence in real-time, and, underestimating Israel's ability to plant moles in Egyptian intelligence also would be typical.

*************************
So maybe everybody is right on this one. The only thing that is wrong, is who is the bad guy in this play?

My message to the poor veterans who suffered is simple:

The only thing worse than your enemy, is someone pretending to be your friend, but secretly aiding your enemy.

Despicable.

Veteran anger should be against your government for putting you in a compromising situation.

No doubt, had the truth come out, congressional investigations would have taken oilman, US President Lyndon B. Johnson's presidency down.

And just like none of us will ever know the truth about the Kennedy assassination, and perhaps even the Epstein nonsense, the truth will NEVER be revealed on this one.

SO YES, JUST A CASE OF MISTAKEN IDENTITY!

[dcard1 @dcard1]

@SteveInman unnecessary escalation from a very light sort-of slap.

[dcard1 @dcard1]

The Jews began arriving in greater numbers beginning 1880, and would immigrate over the next 70 years (generations) to 1947. There was no "pushing out, or expelling" by the Jews over those 70 years.

When the Arabs made clear their genocidal intent to expel all the Jews from the region at end 1947, and began their attacks, it just did not work out so well for them I think.

[dcard1 @dcard1]

Yes! The Arabs took their turn to try to get rid of their British overlords in the four-year Arab Revolt (1936-1939).

And the Jews took their turn to get rid of the British 1945-1949.

Many British colonies would eventually rise up against their imperial overlords.

Nobody likes to be ruled by an autocratic government that plays silly games to remain in power.

INSURGENCY is political tool to remove a tyrannical government from power. It is a liberal Lockean concept and the US Constitution 2nd Amendment sets up that possibility.

And yes, the tactic of terror against the state, its infrastructure, police, military, administration are all fair game. Deliberately targeting civilians though is not recognized as a legitimate. deliberatley targeting civilians earns you the title of "TERRORIST."

The Jewish insurgency went to great lengths to avoid civilian casualties. Over the 4-year period hundreds of targets were hit, about 200 British police/military killed, but very few collateral deaths. The only significant event was the King David Hotel bombing of the British Administration offices in that wing of hotel. The Hotel operator ignored the warning call to clear the hotel.

In all, the Jewish Insurgency in Mandate Palestine was a very clean insurgency, and extremely successful in pushing Britain out of Palestine. And yes, the Arabs often helped the Jews during that insurgency.

[dcard1 @dcard1]

You are forgetting the biggest, nastiest one: The 1973 Yom Kippur War. Israel was crushed with a surprise attack on Oct 6th, 1973. But by Oct 10th, Israel had trounced the Syrians leaving 867 Soviet tanks in smoking ruin on the Golan Heights, and crossed into Syria on road to Damascus.

In the Sinai against Egypt, Israel turned the tables by Oct 10th, and on Oct 14th, in what is considered the second largest tank battle in World history (after Battle for Kursk in WW2), Israel destroyed the Egyptian tank offensive into the Sinai, and began their offensive to cross to the western shore of the Suez and encircle Egypt's Third Army.

The USA sent three F-4 phantoms on Oct 14th, but Israel still had lots of combat fighters (including Phantoms on that date).

After Israel (essentially) won the war, the USA began to supply Israel as the Soviets were pouring weapons into Egypt and Syria (and they threatened to invade to save Egypt, with USA going to DEFCON 3 nuclear alert).

[dcard1 @dcard1]

Yes. Nothing really makes sense on this one.

Here is some mitigating information to ponder:

The USA, although "an ally" to Israel, supposedly, still had an arms embargo against Israel in 1967 since her 1948 War of Independence. JFK sold Israel the very first defense-only weapons in 1961 HAWK surface-to-air.

But Israel entered the 1967 War with French aircraft (Mirage and Mystere) and mostly British tanks (Centurions). It would only be in 1970 that the USA would deliver offensive weapons purchased by Israel (F-4 Phantom jets) in very limited numbers.

The USA was far more interested in turning the Egyptians away from her Soviet sponsors, than helping Israel. The State Department, CIA, NSA (the aka the Deep State today) had always been against the Jewish state from 1947 till that day.

There is only one story I have heard that makes any sense of all of this. All the strange pieces, motivations for a cover-up, and even the turn to the USA breaking the embargo against Israel the following year.

AN entire chapter in this book:

[dcard1 @dcard1]

Of course, Iran warning came after Israel warned their external army, Hezbollah, not to attack innocents in Northern Israel cities. Hezbollah ignored Trump's ceasefire and again attacked cities in the north.

Israel should automatically attack Iran when any of Iran's external armies attack Israel from now on. That means, Hezbollah, Houthis and Iraqi Shia militias.

[dcard1 @dcard1]

For a more complex problem "4.3" instead of "4" in this example.....

....You can use a log to any base that you want. Log base 10, natural log base 2.71828, log base 4, or any other.

You think you are simplifying by using base 4?

Yes, the "left side" logbase4(4^x) = x simplifies easily, but the other side requires you to use a simple phone calculator that likely does not have a function to take log of anything other than base 10 or base natural log.

Those are the easy tools available to you.

[dcard1 @dcard1]

False. The UN General Assembly, just as worthless back then as today, by the UN Charter can only make a recommendation. And that is what they did. It was not binding on any party. The Security Council did not even comment on the General Assembly nonsense, with zero involvement.

As the Arabs refused that recommendation, and even a MUCH better recommendation (The Minority Report plan where they would have ruled over the whole area), it was dead on arrival.

Britain was against the plan, and except for USA Truman's state recognition, the USA State Department was against it to. The Jews were at war with the British at that moment and into the following war, and the USA worked to reverse the attempted partition plan in the months following. And of course the USA arms embargo to the Jews that would last for another 30 years (first offensive weapons in 1970 in limited numbers). Israel won her war with covert Czechoslovakian weapons.

Everybody at the UN understood that the Arabs would follow thru with their threats to expel the Jews in mass and did nothing to dissuade them. They did not expect the Jews to survive there.

Big surprise!!!

[dcard1 @dcard1]

A map in 1947 would be a map of the British Mandate called "Palestine" in English. It was, for all practical purposes, a British Crown Colony administered by the British Colonial Office.

The Legal name of that region was "Palestina-Land of Israel" over that period. All legal documents, currency, stamps, passports, were by law, required to carry that legal name.

Legally, It is just as correct to call that region "Land of Israel" during that period.

Before the British conquered that region in 1919 from the Ottomans, the northern half of entire area was in the Ottoman Province of Beirut (just north of a horizontal line between north Tel Avi and Jerusalem

And, about 2/3's of the largely Eastern European Jews that migrated during the Second Industrial Revolution landed in that Province. 1880-1947 migration. 1880-1930 Second Industrial Revolution

Tht was the largest migration in human history with 60 million Eastern and Southern Europeans taking flight from economically those depressed regions. The US population doubled over that short period. Jews a small percentage in flight

Beirut was a city that was 75% Christian, and, uniquely in the late Ottoman era, Christian leaders were in charge.

Much of the land purchases in the largely uninhabited lowlands between Haifa and Jordan/Syria, the Jezreel Valley, were purchased from wealthy Christian notables from Beirut.

Over 400 years of Ottoman rule, there never was a province or region neither called "Palestine" nor a division having borders close to what you see on that map.

At the beginning of British Mandate, the Arabs were terribly angry with the British for allowing the legal name Palestina-Land of Israel, but refusing the their request for the name "Southern Syria."

This can be found from primary source hosted at the UN Archives website. The 1926 British Report to the League of Nations. Ask and I will post the real link.