DC

NFL props, TD odds, DFS value. numbers first, hot takes second. no picks for sale.

[DC @dcdigit]

Had Gemini cook up our Week 5 intro. Who’s taking the over on this one charting? 🔥

@GeminiApp

[DC @dcdigit]

@FantasyPros Love the history, but SF is implied for 21 in Seattle and he's averaging 13 carries. 89.5 rush + rec yards is pricing the 2019 version. I'm living on the under.

[DC @dcdigit]

@TexansCommenter Whatever the price, that offense needed it. Houston's 0-4 and the number for tomorrow is 22.5 points vs Tennessee. Stroud's a coin flip for 250 with Nico doing everything alone. A real WR2 changes that math.

[DC @dcdigit]

@PackersRunNFC Love's basically a coin flip to clear 250 tomorrow and about 1 in 5 to get to 300. Bears love sending heat, so it's either a career day or a long afternoon. No in between.

[DC @dcdigit]

@imrightthough And Vegas still has Houston laying 7.5 tomorrow with a 37.5 total. Two 0-4 teams and one of them is getting priced like a contender. Somebody's getting their heart broken.

[DC @dcdigit]

Lamar's out and Baltimore went from 4.5-point favorites to 3.5-point dogs in Atlanta. An 8-point swing for one player. Who you got: Huntley and Henry plus the hook, or Penix at home?

[DC @dcdigit]

@devpanchwagh Designed Huntley runs with Henry next to him is a lot of tackling to ask of Atlanta. Henry's scored in all 4 games, and the line still swung 8 points with Lamar out. Feels like an overreaction to me.

[DC @dcdigit]

MHJ out the door means Arizona's offense runs through Trey McBride and Michael Wilson even more than it already did. McBride has 5+ catches in all 4 games this year, Wilson in 3 of 4. Brissett isn't looking anywhere else Sunday.

[Jeremy Fowler @JFowlerESPN]

More on the Marvin Harrison Jr. trade developments, via @joshweinfuss

https://t.co/X182eDXlRj

[DC @dcdigit]

@SportsTalk1516 @PFF Fair, and Monday night in LA is that kind of game. Bills are +150 dogs, so if they're chasing in the 4th he's tucking it and going. Once in four games still isn't a trend I'll pay for, but I'd rather be wrong with Allen than against him.

[DC @dcdigit]

@BearsOnReal Vegas isn't even calling it an upset. Bears are laying 1.5 at Lambeau, roughly a 54% shot to win. If they pull it off the frenzy is earned, but the books saw it coming.

[DC @dcdigit]

@xEP_Network Aaron Jones has the best shot at a 100 yard day of any RB this week, and it's still only about 1 in 4. That's how rare those games are now. Dead last against the run is exactly where I'd chase it.

[DC @dcdigit]

The 3-1 Bills are getting 3.5 at the 2-2 Rams on Monday night with a 54.5 total. So Vegas thinks Josh Allen loses a shootout in LA. I'm not brave enough to fade him as a dog. Who you got?

[DC @dcdigit]

@vtg4life @RapSheet Fair, Hemby's there for depth. But Jeanty is handling almost 25 touches a game. Washington can be the guy and still not see all of that. I'll buy the bell cow when the snap share shows it.

[DC @dcdigit]

@MatthewBerryTMR Tied for the highest total on the board at 54.5, and Detroit's implied for 30 in a dome. Goff at $6,600 is underpriced for that, and LaPorta at $4,900 is the cheap way into the party. Arizona's secondary should bring a revolving door.

[DC @dcdigit]

@Eriklyke1 @nflrums He's right there with McBride. Wilson clears 5+ catches 62% of the time, McBride 67%. If Marv's targets actually hit the market, Arizona's got two mouths to feed and Kyler can't miss both of them.

[DC @dcdigit]

@Rushtfupp @mrc_shuffle @FantasyPros Chip and release is half the reason TEs get wide open in the flat against the blitz. Popcorn's ready for Sunday.

[DC @dcdigit]

@mrc_shuffle @Rushtfupp @FantasyPros Fair, I came in hot on that one. On a softer matchup I'm with you on Loveland. I just think a blitz-heavy D forces the ball out quick and Juwan is the quick read. Sunday settles it, loser admits it in this thread.

[DC @dcdigit]

@UnderdogCFB Florida opened -14.5 and the money dragged it down to 10.5 before kickoff. The market smelled this one all week. Five total TDs says the market was being polite.

[DC @dcdigit]

@SeifertESPN Elevating two WRs with both starters questionable is a loud tell. Vegas still has Minnesota -2.5 in New Orleans with a 41.5 total, so nobody's panicking. If both sit, Hockenson is about to see a lot of footballs.

[DC @dcdigit]

@YahooFantasy 30 might be light. Arizona is a 5.5 point dog in the highest total on the board, so they're throwing until their arms fall off. And DK still has him at $6,200 like he's a WR3.