This week I went back to my second home – the beautiful Garden City, Bengaluru. It was a special 24 hours. Hope you enjoy the episode. #360Show
https://t.co/sBy9hSLyjx
P.S. Bengaluru, you’ll always have my heart ♥️
“How much time do I have?”
“Between an hour and two months,” Benjamin Netanyahu answered.
The question came from Shlomi Binder, head of AMAN—the IDF’s intelligence branch. It is the question no one seems able to answer: how much longer will this war go on?
“I don’t want to see it go on too long,” Trump told CNN on March 2. “I always thought it would be four weeks. And we’re a little ahead of schedule.”
Well—happy March 27. We’ve now reached the four-week mark, more than doubling the length of the June war. As for being “ahead of schedule”—to channel Ronald Reagan, you should never expect government to be on time.
“We have the capability to go far longer,” Trump added. After all, “I don’t get bored.”
Recent actions don’t suggest boredom—but they do suggest the war won’t go on “far longer.” The question is: how much longer? Judging by Binder’s question and Netanyahu’s answer, even Israel doesn’t know.
For all the theatricality of the war, the idea of an abrupt ending is surprising—if not a bit disappointing. It seems the Pentagon agrees, if for strategic rather than presentational reasons. According to reports, the Pentagon and U.S. Central Command are developing plans for a “finishing blow” against Iran.
Four main options are reportedly on the table:
Invading or blockading Iran’s oil chokepoint Kharg Island.
Seizing Larak Island, which anchors Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz;
Taking control of Abu Musa and two smaller islands near the strait’s western entrance.
Intercepting Iranian oil tankers on the eastern side of Hormuz.
The military has also prepared plans for ground operations deep inside Iran to seize enriched uranium from nuclear facilities.
After that kind of operation, Trump has options: he can go back into negotiations, dangling new assets, or call an end to the war unilaterally, with something major to show for it.
All of that takes time to prepare—time the global economy doesn’t seem willing to give Trump after his energy ultimatum. If only there were a way to calm the markets—perhaps by letting negotiations drag on and extending the deadline while the military prepares.
If only.
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