Dan

Economist (MSc) | Historian (MA) | Ex-Parliament | Aristotelian | Romantic Nationalist

[Dan @dcp286]

@neilchristiex @JonathanBrash @EleanorQueenie According to this 11,884 arrived in Q1+Q2 2026, which is more than 2023 but lower than 2024 and 2025.

Traditionally, the peak months for crossings have been August, September and October (see 2022-24) so this declaration of progress is premature imo.

https://t.co/EllVWOtSAX

[Dan @dcp286]

Link to source for those figures:

https://t.co/gAeJrYT5f2

[Dan @dcp286]

.@JonathanBrash, I would be grateful if you could point me to the data showing that. The latest I can find is the HO website ("illegal entry route summary tables"), which states there were 39,271 arrivals (623 boats) in 2025-26 vs 38,023 arrivals (on 700 boats) in 2024-25

[Jonathan Brash MP @JonathanBrash]

Down 41% this year. Deal in facts.

[Dan @dcp286]

@JonathanBrash @EleanorQueenie I would be grateful if you could point me to the data showing that. The latest I can find is the HO website ("illegal entry route summary tables"), which states there were 39,271 arrivals (623 boats) in 2025-26 vs 38,023 arrivals (on 700 boats) in 2024-25

https://t.co/gAeJrYT5f2

[Dan @dcp286]

@ReemAmirIbrahim It is *not* logically inconsistent to say "the law is an ass", but to then say "while the law is an ass it should at least be applied equally".

Reform's point is about applying the rule of law, not the Neoplatonist ins and outs of free speech/expression.

[Dan @dcp286]

@Steve_Laws_ Samuel Winter (August, 2024)

[Dan @dcp286]

@mollygiles2015 On the assumption they are proposing only to change the tax and not the funding mechanics of LAs, this is basically a fiscal transfer from the South to the North.

That fact alone probably explains the motives at hand.

[Dan @dcp286]

@Jonathan_Hinder Would there be any reform to the mechanics of local authority funding to complement this?

or is the idea to keep it the same such that this would represent a large fiscal transfer from the South to the North?

[Dan @dcp286]

HOWEVER if the plan is to do this reform while keeping the mechanics of the old system (i.e., revenues pooled centrally and distributed back to local authorities via a grant formula), would this not represent a considerable fiscal transfer from the LAs of the South to the North?

[Dan @dcp286]

I don't disagree in principle with replacing council tax + stamp duty with a property tax: stamp duty is the most damaging tax on the books and council tax is anchored to 1991 values and unreformable due to explosive house price growth (concentrated in England) since then.

[Jonathan Hinder MP @Jonathan_Hinder]

This pro-growth tax reform *could* be delivered by April 2028.

75% of households getting a tax cut… with the biggest in Labour-Reform marginals

👀

[Dan @dcp286]

There is also a lesson to learn from Theresa May. She called a snap election in 2017 to strengthen her hand against her backbenchers (and the EU). What she got was a hung parliament and confidence and supply to remain PM. Burnham doesn't need to take that risk...

[Dan @dcp286]

Loathe as I am to say it, this is probably correct from Burnham. None of the parties (incl. Labour) are in the position to contest a general election, and the choice offered to voters would be badly thought through and uncosted...

[Politics UK @PolitlcsUK]

🚨 NEW: Andy Burnham has officially ruled out an early general election

"I don’t think people want it"

[Dan @dcp286]

@aswren If this is due to Sentencing Act reforms (under which the govt expects 5,000-6,000 released in Sep), this means that >20% of those expected to be released have either raped a child or sexually assaulted a child. CSA Centre (2025) says the recidivism rate for these crimes is ~13%.

[Dan @dcp286]

So of the expected ~5,000-6,000 offenders (~5,500) that will be released, >20% (1,202) of them have either raped a child or sexually assaulted a child. What are we actually doing here?

The answer to this is obviously build more prisons (but I can't wait to learn from Prosper UK / David Gauke about why thats wrong and why we should prioritise the right to rehabilitation for child rapists instead!)

[Danny Shaw @DannyShawNews]

NEW Analysis of prisoners due for early release show:
85 were jailed for manslaughter
220 rape of a child
344 rape of an adult
982 sexual assault of children

Details in @telegraph https://t.co/wPgVwHtg41

[Dan @dcp286]

@drantero190 @piersmorgan 1) this is quite an entitled thing to post to someone you don't know and have never met.

2) that notwithstanding, according to summary table A6 of the Mar 2026 stats, violence without injury (829,017) is <50% of violence against the person (1,962,413).

https://t.co/8e8VTZICrm

[Dan @dcp286]

@piersmorgan P.S., source for my claims, just in case anyone would like to verify:

https://t.co/ETamohAs7L

[Dan @dcp286]

This will be determined by a multiplicity of independent variables from population aging to healthcare advances that transform murders into assaults.

In 2025/26, there were 1.96 million violence against the person offences, which is a slight increase from the 1.94 million recorded in 2024/25.

However, it is *more than treble* the number of violent offences recorded in 2013/14 (~600,000). So perhaps you would like to revise your view in light of that?

[Dan @dcp286]

.@zannymb was raised in Shropshire, where one of the main contributions of immigration has been the Telford grooming gangs; now lives in London where knife crime stats are still at all-time highs. It is genuinely difficult to comprehend this extent of wilful blindness.

[The Economist @TheEconomist]

.@elonmusk believes that Britain is heading for “a reckoning”. @zannymb challenges him on that claim, his support for the far right and on the picture he paints of Britain to his hundreds of millions of followers. Watch the full Insider interview: https://t.co/ON3TUgyVqh

[Dan @dcp286]

I note your use of a very specific statistic to imply that knife crime has gone down. According to Metropolitan Police statistics, knife crime offences are still at an all-time high: (16,163 in 2025/26).

For context, that number was 15,156 in 2023/24 (the year in which you were last re-elected), and 9,752 in 2015/16 (the year before you were first elected).

https://t.co/4MKxGInjfj

[Dan @dcp286]

The more we find out; the worse it gets.

[Politics UK @PolitlcsUK]

🚨 BREAKING: The CPS says Ann Widdecombe died after she was hit on the head with a hammer 21 times