$BTC's Current consolidation has been slightly different compared to the previous ones this cycle.
Yet, it is still following the same pattern where it stalls, deviates below, retakes the range and then grinds higher.
The only thing that's missing, to be in line with previous consolidations, is the actual breakout and continuation.
$ETH Trading in the bigger ~$2.1K-$2.8K Range.
Has seen a strong rebound since the last flush and now trading back within the local range.
$2.8K is the big level to break for high timeframe continuation higher to the $3K-4K region.
$BTC Attempting a breakout.
Any closes up around this $110K region would be good. You don't want to see this deviate back below $108K again at this point.
🚨 MASSIVE Day of Economic Data today.
With that, the market closes early and will be closed tomorrow because of Independence Day.
We've recently seen a slowing in job numbers but the big one in this regard is the Nonfarm Payrolls which will also come out in ~2 hours from now.
A further decrease in job market strength would likely mean yields come down and more rate cuts get priced in sooner. On the other hand it also shows signs of an upcoming recession so it will be up to the market on how to digest it all.
Good one to keep an eye on today.
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$BTC Open Interest on CME Futures has been pretty stable.
It's nowhere close to the post election rally hype which saw Open Interest peak at $23B vs the $15B now.
TradFi seems more focussed on all these BTC treasury company investment vehicles for the time being.
Which are arguably better in the short term because they are more spot orientated. Longer term I do have some doubts about a lot of these companies though. As I don't think they will be as well managed as the likes of $MSTR or something. This might cause issues by next bear market. But we'll see in due time.
$BTC Has been consolidating below this high timeframe resistance for about 6 weeks now.
Meanwhile, most alts have steadily sold off and many are down a lot during this timeframe.
It's why I have repeatedly said to wait for the resistance to actually be broken and held on a weekly basis, before getting too excited and calling for much higher targets.
It's a resistance until it isn't. Don't get chopped up by trying to prematurely long the breakout because you see what can happen.
Especially this cycle, things have taken much longer compared to previous cycles.
Now, today we're giving this breakout another go so let's see what the bulls can do this time around.
$ETH Nice move out of the local range. Bulls would want to hold on to that ~$2520 level otherwise this is just another deviation/liquidity grab in the bigger chop.
Wouldn't be the first time something like that has happened. Below $2520 I am assuming this goes and test the range low region again.
Major levels to watch remain ~$2310 & ~$2735.
Altcoin Sector Overview 📊
Pretty uneventful end and start of the new quarter so far.
No major outliers in terms of altcoin sector outperformance.
Price action mostly choppy as expected. This is what we usually see at the start of a new quarter as investors rebalance their books and will look for new opportunities in the quarter ahead.
I think it's important when looking at $BTC to consider the recent decrease in $USD value.
If we denominate BTC against other major currencies, you can see how the chart is telling a much different story.
Similar to stocks which are technically at an all time high, but compared to earlier this year they are still down over 10% just because $DXY lost value.
We have seen a solid bounce since the Tariff drama but a lot of it is also because of the USD devaluation. Keep that in mind when looking at risk assets to compare their relative strength to earlier this year.
The number one thing you need to get in order if you want to survive in this space is risk management.
Without risk management there is no surviving, especially if you're actively trading.
Another thing is that I think any portfolio would be well off having a big chunk of it in $BTC. It's the one thing you can trust it will have demand and won't just die down after a single cycle.
Alts can be amazing but need a lot more managing.
With the bounce last week, we've seen the average Weekly RSI level of coins move up quite bit.
The average of ~40 is still pretty neutral/low which is of course the case for many alts. Especially the mid/low caps.
BTC is currently sitting in between the 60-70 range which is a good area to be. Not overbought but also indicating there's somewhat of a bullish weekly trend going.
Alts still have a long way to go and still seem unable to string together multiple weeks of upside/outperformance against BTC. A few exceptions obviously.
The third quarter of 2025 has begun.
As you can see from the historical data, this quarter is generally the slowest out of all, for both $BTC & $ETH.
This is due to the slower summer months where there's generally less action, volumes & liquidity.
We do often see a new interesting narrative evolve from this slower/boring time. So be on the look out for that.