🌅 Monday Market Theme
Constructive AI/memory absorption attempt, but not clean permission yet.
The leader board is doing what we wanted: $SMH, $MU, $SNDK, $MRVL, $NVDA, and $ASML are all green and above damage lows. $VIXY is not firing, and $TLT is steady.
The only real yellow veto right now is $USO — oil is sitting above the 134.30-135.20 warning zone.
Motto: Fear is an opportunity only after absorption. Question first. Answer second. Size third.
Full June 8 Market Watch Grid + AI Sentiment Grid in the comments.
Closest clean contract first. Add only to premium expansion. 🎯
$QQQ $SPY $NVDA $SMH $MU $MRVL $SNDK $ASML $USO #Trading #AI
I’m still trying to understand why we got that -4% day on the Nasdaq $QQQ last Friday.
The last time we had that bad of a day was April of 2025.
I think the question on everyone’s mind is if that downside move was the start of something bigger or if it was a one off event.
The core reasons I can see for why we had a selloff:
- Jobs report was TOO good, meaning the chances of a rate cut are virtually gone if we have so many jobs because it will lead to more inflation. Good news is bad news.
- SpaceX $SPCX will require tons of liquidity so people are selling assets that have done really well to free up money.
- Markets were going vertical for a month, we were bound to get some pain if we had a bad earnings and $AVGO wasn’t bad but a lack of guidance raise was enough to be used as the excuse.
- Meta $META having the dilution rumor leak during the worst part of the day only made people more concerned the capex funding is entering an entirely new stage which has implications for Amazon and Microsoft as well after we saw the Google $85B dilution news.
- Crypto liquidations never help and last week led to a momentum based drawdown across all of crypto which also hurt risk on parts of the equity market like tech.
All of these seem to be reasonable arguments, I just wonder if they all are *enough* to begin a much broader sell off. Is the earnings growth going to continue in Q2? If it does, will the street once again give stocks the benefit of the doubt to go higher if earnings are, or if earnings slip, do stocks slip? Does Kevin Warsh actually raise rates because of a healthy labor market or does he wait it out? Does this Iran situation get resolved soon or will it continue to be the cloud lingering over the market?
This week will be really important but there are many more questions than answers for if last week’s selloff could turn into a more broad based drawdown over the coming months.
🌅 Friday Market Theme |
Bearish gap-down / failed AI leadership until proven repair.
Oil is easing and TLT is firm, but equities are **not accepting the relief**. $SPY, $QQQ, $SMH, $MU, $MRVL, and $NVDA are all below key repair ladders. $VIXY is above the fear gate.
This is a **conditional repair tape** — not automatic.
Motto: Do not predict the replay. Make the market prove it.
Full June 5 Market Watch Grid + AI Sentiment Grid in the comments.
Question first. Answer second. Size third. 🎯
$SPY $QQQ $NVDA $SMH $MU $MRVL $VIXY $BTC #Trading
🌅 Thursday Market Theme | 760 Gate Checklist
Bearish gap-down / failed AI leadership until proven repair.
$SPY is below 754.31/753.91 support, $QQQ far below 743.04, $VIXY above the fear gate. Oil is easing and $TLT is firm, but equities are not accepting the relief yet. $SMH, $MU, and $MRVL leadership is broken for now.
This is not automatic repair. The gap is already extended lower.
Motto:Do not force the future. Engineer the conditions. Collect receipts. Only then collapse into action. Question first. Answer second. Size third.
Full June 4 Market Watch Grid + AI Sentiment Grid in the comments.
No hero trades. Trade the receipts. 🎯
$SPY $QQQ $NVDA $SMH $MU $MRVL $VIXY $BTC #Trading #760Checklist