Ya’ll never change.
Bitcoin is now experiencing its 11th 25%+ correction in ten years and every time everyone reacts like the sky is falling and every time everyone screams that it’s different this time.
This pullback looks, smells and feels 100% just like 2017 to me. Rising fiat liquidity leading to massive asset price gains.
Right now the new admin has decided that we need:
1. Lower treasury rates to refinance debt
2. Lower mortgage rates to unlock the housing and CRE markets
3. Lower treasury rates to save banks from their collective insolvency
China is in a deep recession and needs lower U.S. rates to support its own money printing regime. And print they will.
We’re likely going to see massive job cuts via government cuts, tech cuts and housing related cuts. At the same time ISM will likely rise for the next several months.
All of this tells us liquidity will continue to flow and the markets will do what they always do in this type of cycle. That liquidity will flow into stocks, Bitcoin, crypto and real estate.
Once again… buckle up… 🚀🚀
if you got caught in the massive liquidation event that just happened
1. i really hope you're okay
2. i want you to know that this is not the end—you can make it back and more!
while some on the TL were hoping 'bonk guy' got liquidated, i'm fine
my $BONK long is still up high 7 figures and never came close to liquidation during the recent crash
for the sake of us all, i really hope we never get to the stage where that position gets liquidated
that said, this recent market crash was no trivial event—it was the greatest liquidation event in crypto history, with estimates suggesting as much as $10 billion worth of liquidations occurred within a 24-hour period
i did get carried out on a couple of smaller, higher-leverage positions because I didn’t expect this level of downside volatility to hit so quickly. but I was prepared for the possibility of losing those trades when I opened them
for those who lost it all during this recent crash, i understand how frustrating and hopeless such a situation can feel
trust me, i've been there before—it’s not pleasant
i know what it feels like to lose everything or so much that the thought of what to do next becomes indescribably paralyzing
however, this is NOT the time to lose hope or give up
if you are like me, you most likely started from nothing or with very little to get to where you were before this loss
if you could do it before, you can do it again
that said, it’s crucial to take a break, clear your head, and then slowly and gradually work your way out of the hole
it sure as hell won't be easy, but i know you can do it again
the following tips might help:
1. know that YOU CAN MAKE IT BACK: i cannot overstate how important this is—your mindset at a time like this will ultimately determine whether you recover and come back stronger
2. cleanse your mind of the value you lost, the peak value of your holdings, or your financial target for this cycle: trust me, zeroing in on these will only push you into a downward spiral of depression, making it feel impossible to climb back up
3. take baby steps: as slow and painful as it may seem, this is the only safe way forward—accepting this early will save you from more damage
4. stay off leverage completely: i generally advise against using leverage unless you truly know what you’re doing and are willing to lose it all (in which case, you wouldn’t need my advice!). but if you just lost everything to leverage liquidation and are trying to make it back, avoid leverage at all costs
5. lock in and work harder than ever before: get in the trenches and develop a system to stay on top of trends, narratives, and new crypto projects and opportunities. you're going to have to sacrifice a lot in the process—sleep, time, maybe even some unimportant relationships—but it will be worth it in the end
contrary to what many would want you to believe, odds are that the bull run is not over: if it were, this would be one of the weakest and most unprecedented 'bull runs' in history based on timing, altcoin performance, and other key metrics—not to mention the aggressively pro-crypto stance from the current U.S. administration
do not despair or give up
you can make it all back—and more
but the ball is in your court
Department of Government Efficiency / $DOGE ('DOGEGOV' on CEXs)
this did not play out as i expected in the short-term
mostly due to the $TRUMP launch sucking liquidity out of everything including dogecoin itself
both Department of Government Efficiency and Dogecoin were holding incredibly well and looked primed for new highs prior to the $TRUMP launch just days to the inauguration
regardless, i think there is a bit of an over-reaction here from people trying to 'sell the news' on this one after the inauguration
this is more than your average election/inauguration day politifi memecoin as it is based on a strong narrative that is and will continue to gain traction for the greater part of the Trump administration
plus there is the added advantage that Elon Musk himself will continue to meme this narrative for the rest of this year and beyond
i also took a look at on-chain metrics for the Department of Government Efficiency memecoin during the current sell-off:
- on-chain holders continue to grow rapidly: it has gained over 4,200 holders in the past week on Ethereum and Solana
- strong volume during this sell-off: it has traded more volume this week than in any other week in its history, with exception of its ATH week of Nov 11, 2024
- community remains just as strong
- team remains just as active and committed
- narrative remains just as strong and will be valid for the rest of this bull run
in other words: on-chain metrics look incredibly good and pretty much everything else i have highlighted as a key part of my thesis for this looks good, with the exception of short-term price action
in light of the above, my thesis for Department of Government Efficiency remains in place and is not invalidated
i have also yet to sell a single D.O.G.E token to this date and have been pretty much unfazed through this sell-off
in fact, if i wasn't worried about supply concentration issues—i.e. large CEXs do not like it when individual holders hold way too much of the supply—i would be buying more tokens on this dip
i know how extremely uncomfortable it can feel seeing $TRUMP vamp all your memecoins and suck liquidity out of them
make no mistake about it
this pullback should be seen as an opportunity to size into high-conviction memecoin plays
what is happening right now is similar to what happened during the $GME memestock moment of 2021
what followed was the most explosive memecoin season crypto had ever witnessed
i expect the same to play out once TRUMP cools down
it's time to start having serious discussions about the idea of $SOL flipping $ETH this cycle
for some reason many are afraid of having this discussion as they see it as entirely out of the realm of possibility
it isn't
Solana has literally dominated Ethereum when it comes to pretty much every adoption metric this cycle:
- Solana is generating more on-chain transactions and volume than Ethereum
- Solana is starting to generate more daily revenue than Ethereum
- the vast majority of new launches this cycle is happening on Solana, and this trend will likely continue
- Trump's 'America-first' approach to crypto will likely give $SOL a massive boost since it's the largest blockchain originating from America
and we're not even in the full blown bull run yet: these metrics will increase significantly for Solana once we see an influx of retail
many are impressed by the fact that $XRP 6x'd and added an impressive $159 billion to its market cap in a little over two months
however the impending SOL rally will be just as impressive when it starts IMO
i will put the odds of SOL flipping ETH this cycle at at least 50%
and the best way to capitalize on SOL growth this cycle is by owning $BONK
i'll elaborate:
- BONK is the biggest memecoin on Solana and widely regarded as its main memecoin
- BONK is accessible on almost every major CEX and trading outlet worldwide: Robinhood, Coinbase, Binance, Upbit, and more
- BONK has the best unit bias of every major memecoin on Solana, and it's not even close!
- BONK is the Solana memecoin best positioned for institutional bid due to its ETP set to go live soon
- BONK is deflationary due to a series of products and mechanisms: burning from BonkBot, staking, and more
$BONK isn’t just the biggest and main memecoin on Solana—it’s also the chain’s best beta
there isn’t any other memecoin on Solana that comes close in terms of provenance and fundamentals
it's also worth noting that the two biggest memecoins on Ethereum right now are trading at several multiples of the BONK market cap:
- $SHIB, at a $14.3 billion market cap, is 6x larger than $BONK's current market cap
- $PEPE, at an $8.4 billion market cap, is 3.5x larger than $BONK's current market cap
BONK is ridiculously undervalued as the main memecoin of Solana and an aggressive upwards repricing is imminent IMO
if Solana is indeed the main blockchain of this cycle—and the data strongly suggests that it is—then I’d be seriously worried if I had no exposure to $BONK
JUST IN: 🇭🇰 Hong Kong to eliminate capital gains tax on #Bitcoin and crypto for hedge funds and family offices in bid to become global crypto hub - Financial Times