![harleyfoote_'s tweet photo. The Fed hiked 25bp. Crypto went UP. Here is why, and what usually happens next. 🏦🧵
THE SETUP
A hike was 88% priced on Polymarket at 18:00. Everyone knew. So the number was never the trade. The trade was the positioning into it: BTC came into the meeting −2.0% over five days, ETH −5.1%, both sitting on the lines we set before CPI (75,930 and 2,393). Funding positive, whales net short on both.
[STATEMENT LINE: one sentence on what the statement said, e.g. "The statement kept 'further firming' and gave no hint of a pause."]
THE FIRST 15 MINUTES
BTC 75,668 → 75,921 (+0.3%). Spiked to 76,547 in the first ten minutes, gave most of it back.
ETH 2,386 → 2,406 (+0.8%). Spiked to 2,430, holding 2,400.
The liquidation tape tells you what that spike was. Six venues, the four-hour window covering the decision:
• BTC: $36m of SHORTS liquidated, $4m of longs
• ETH: $12m of shorts, $9m of longs
Nine times more BTC shorts were force-closed than longs. That is not buying. That is shorts being closed for them. A short liquidation is a forced buy, and a book that came into the meeting short gets bought on the print no matter what the print says.
WHO GOT CAUGHT, WHO DIDN'T
On Hyperliquid, whales did not flinch. ETH whale shorts went $1,029m → $1,041m through the spike. They ADDED. BTC whale shorts $1,112m → $1,105m, barely touched. New whale wallets since the decision bought $1m of ETH and sold nothing.
The crowd: ETH 42% long before, 42% long now. Binance retail 76% long. Open interest ETH $2.32bn → $2.35bn, BTC $2.83bn → $2.80bn.
So the squeeze cleared the small shorts and the big ones stayed. That matters for the next few days.
WHAT FED DAYS USUALLY DO
We keep the base rates. 68 meetings since 2019:
• the Fed-day close is the low of the week only 22% of the time
• the median bounce from the Fed-day low over the next five days is +3.4%
• but the last 8 meetings: BTC red on the day 6 of 8, ETH 6 of 8, and LOWER a week later 7 of 8
The split that matters today: ETH came in DOWN 5% over five days. In the 30 meetings where ETH came in down, the five-day return after was a median +2.0% and negative only 33% of the time. Coming in sold is historically the better side of a Fed day. That is the honest counter-argument to anyone short here, us included.
THE LEVELS INTO FRIDAY
ETH: 20-day range 2,356–2,666. The line above is 2,533, the old range top. Below, 2,356 is the September low. Daily 200 EMA 2,171. 25 Sep options expiry max pain 2,200, 44% of all ETH options.
BTC: 20-day range 74,903–82,268. Daily 200 EMA 72,095. 25 Sep max pain 72,000.
WHAT WE ARE WATCHING
1. Does ETH close the day above 2,393, the pre-CPI line it lost this morning? If yes, the short squeeze had follow-through. If no, the spike was the whole move.
2. Whale shorts at $1.04bn. If they start covering, the +2% base case is on. If they add again into 2,430–2,533, it is the same book as before the meeting.
3. Friday's close against 2,533 and 82,268. The first hour of a Fed day is the trap more often than the trend. Friday is the tell.
Happy Hunting! 🫡](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HSW7jnGXQAAUo6x.jpg)
![harleyfoote_'s tweet photo. The Fed hiked 25bp. Crypto went UP. Here is why, and what usually happens next. 🏦🧵
THE SETUP
A hike was 88% priced on Polymarket at 18:00. Everyone knew. So the number was never the trade. The trade was the positioning into it: BTC came into the meeting −2.0% over five days, ETH −5.1%, both sitting on the lines we set before CPI (75,930 and 2,393). Funding positive, whales net short on both.
[STATEMENT LINE: one sentence on what the statement said, e.g. "The statement kept 'further firming' and gave no hint of a pause."]
THE FIRST 15 MINUTES
BTC 75,668 → 75,921 (+0.3%). Spiked to 76,547 in the first ten minutes, gave most of it back.
ETH 2,386 → 2,406 (+0.8%). Spiked to 2,430, holding 2,400.
The liquidation tape tells you what that spike was. Six venues, the four-hour window covering the decision:
• BTC: $36m of SHORTS liquidated, $4m of longs
• ETH: $12m of shorts, $9m of longs
Nine times more BTC shorts were force-closed than longs. That is not buying. That is shorts being closed for them. A short liquidation is a forced buy, and a book that came into the meeting short gets bought on the print no matter what the print says.
WHO GOT CAUGHT, WHO DIDN'T
On Hyperliquid, whales did not flinch. ETH whale shorts went $1,029m → $1,041m through the spike. They ADDED. BTC whale shorts $1,112m → $1,105m, barely touched. New whale wallets since the decision bought $1m of ETH and sold nothing.
The crowd: ETH 42% long before, 42% long now. Binance retail 76% long. Open interest ETH $2.32bn → $2.35bn, BTC $2.83bn → $2.80bn.
So the squeeze cleared the small shorts and the big ones stayed. That matters for the next few days.
WHAT FED DAYS USUALLY DO
We keep the base rates. 68 meetings since 2019:
• the Fed-day close is the low of the week only 22% of the time
• the median bounce from the Fed-day low over the next five days is +3.4%
• but the last 8 meetings: BTC red on the day 6 of 8, ETH 6 of 8, and LOWER a week later 7 of 8
The split that matters today: ETH came in DOWN 5% over five days. In the 30 meetings where ETH came in down, the five-day return after was a median +2.0% and negative only 33% of the time. Coming in sold is historically the better side of a Fed day. That is the honest counter-argument to anyone short here, us included.
THE LEVELS INTO FRIDAY
ETH: 20-day range 2,356–2,666. The line above is 2,533, the old range top. Below, 2,356 is the September low. Daily 200 EMA 2,171. 25 Sep options expiry max pain 2,200, 44% of all ETH options.
BTC: 20-day range 74,903–82,268. Daily 200 EMA 72,095. 25 Sep max pain 72,000.
WHAT WE ARE WATCHING
1. Does ETH close the day above 2,393, the pre-CPI line it lost this morning? If yes, the short squeeze had follow-through. If no, the spike was the whole move.
2. Whale shorts at $1.04bn. If they start covering, the +2% base case is on. If they add again into 2,430–2,533, it is the same book as before the meeting.
3. Friday's close against 2,533 and 82,268. The first hour of a Fed day is the trap more often than the trend. Friday is the tell.
Happy Hunting! 🫡](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HSW7i81XoAAuaT6.jpg)
![harleyfoote_'s tweet photo. The Fed hiked 25bp. Crypto went UP. Here is why, and what usually happens next. 🏦🧵
THE SETUP
A hike was 88% priced on Polymarket at 18:00. Everyone knew. So the number was never the trade. The trade was the positioning into it: BTC came into the meeting −2.0% over five days, ETH −5.1%, both sitting on the lines we set before CPI (75,930 and 2,393). Funding positive, whales net short on both.
[STATEMENT LINE: one sentence on what the statement said, e.g. "The statement kept 'further firming' and gave no hint of a pause."]
THE FIRST 15 MINUTES
BTC 75,668 → 75,921 (+0.3%). Spiked to 76,547 in the first ten minutes, gave most of it back.
ETH 2,386 → 2,406 (+0.8%). Spiked to 2,430, holding 2,400.
The liquidation tape tells you what that spike was. Six venues, the four-hour window covering the decision:
• BTC: $36m of SHORTS liquidated, $4m of longs
• ETH: $12m of shorts, $9m of longs
Nine times more BTC shorts were force-closed than longs. That is not buying. That is shorts being closed for them. A short liquidation is a forced buy, and a book that came into the meeting short gets bought on the print no matter what the print says.
WHO GOT CAUGHT, WHO DIDN'T
On Hyperliquid, whales did not flinch. ETH whale shorts went $1,029m → $1,041m through the spike. They ADDED. BTC whale shorts $1,112m → $1,105m, barely touched. New whale wallets since the decision bought $1m of ETH and sold nothing.
The crowd: ETH 42% long before, 42% long now. Binance retail 76% long. Open interest ETH $2.32bn → $2.35bn, BTC $2.83bn → $2.80bn.
So the squeeze cleared the small shorts and the big ones stayed. That matters for the next few days.
WHAT FED DAYS USUALLY DO
We keep the base rates. 68 meetings since 2019:
• the Fed-day close is the low of the week only 22% of the time
• the median bounce from the Fed-day low over the next five days is +3.4%
• but the last 8 meetings: BTC red on the day 6 of 8, ETH 6 of 8, and LOWER a week later 7 of 8
The split that matters today: ETH came in DOWN 5% over five days. In the 30 meetings where ETH came in down, the five-day return after was a median +2.0% and negative only 33% of the time. Coming in sold is historically the better side of a Fed day. That is the honest counter-argument to anyone short here, us included.
THE LEVELS INTO FRIDAY
ETH: 20-day range 2,356–2,666. The line above is 2,533, the old range top. Below, 2,356 is the September low. Daily 200 EMA 2,171. 25 Sep options expiry max pain 2,200, 44% of all ETH options.
BTC: 20-day range 74,903–82,268. Daily 200 EMA 72,095. 25 Sep max pain 72,000.
WHAT WE ARE WATCHING
1. Does ETH close the day above 2,393, the pre-CPI line it lost this morning? If yes, the short squeeze had follow-through. If no, the spike was the whole move.
2. Whale shorts at $1.04bn. If they start covering, the +2% base case is on. If they add again into 2,430–2,533, it is the same book as before the meeting.
3. Friday's close against 2,533 and 82,268. The first hour of a Fed day is the trap more often than the trend. Friday is the tell.
Happy Hunting! 🫡](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HSW7iNdWUAAvO9r.png)
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cracking the code for web3 DeFi |||| @defidreamchain
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Only articles and it’s not helping
@waqszzz Eth or sol?
Slowly but surely
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@waqszzz Spare me an hour waqs
The headline is “Fed hiked, crypto pumped ”
The interesting part is what caused the pump
$36M of BTC shorts got force closed while ETH whales actually added to shorts.
The first move might be noise. Friday tells us whether it was positioning or trend
The Fed hiked 25bp. Crypto went UP. Here is why, and what usually happens next. 🏦🧵
THE SETUP
A hike was 88% priced on Polymarket at 18:00. Everyone knew. So the number was never the trade. The trade was the positioning into it: BTC came into the meeting −2.0% over five days, ETH −5.1%, both sitting on the lines we set before CPI (75,930 and 2,393). Funding positive, whales net short on both.
[STATEMENT LINE: one sentence on what the statement said, e.g. "The statement kept 'further firming' and gave no hint of a pause."]
THE FIRST 15 MINUTES
BTC 75,668 → 75,921 (+0.3%). Spiked to 76,547 in the first ten minutes, gave most of it back.
ETH 2,386 → 2,406 (+0.8%). Spiked to 2,430, holding 2,400.
The liquidation tape tells you what that spike was. Six venues, the four-hour window covering the decision:
• BTC: $36m of SHORTS liquidated, $4m of longs
• ETH: $12m of shorts, $9m of longs
Nine times more BTC shorts were force-closed than longs. That is not buying. That is shorts being closed for them. A short liquidation is a forced buy, and a book that came into the meeting short gets bought on the print no matter what the print says.
WHO GOT CAUGHT, WHO DIDN'T
On Hyperliquid, whales did not flinch. ETH whale shorts went $1,029m → $1,041m through the spike. They ADDED. BTC whale shorts $1,112m → $1,105m, barely touched. New whale wallets since the decision bought $1m of ETH and sold nothing.
The crowd: ETH 42% long before, 42% long now. Binance retail 76% long. Open interest ETH $2.32bn → $2.35bn, BTC $2.83bn → $2.80bn.
So the squeeze cleared the small shorts and the big ones stayed. That matters for the next few days.
WHAT FED DAYS USUALLY DO
We keep the base rates. 68 meetings since 2019:
• the Fed-day close is the low of the week only 22% of the time
• the median bounce from the Fed-day low over the next five days is +3.4%
• but the last 8 meetings: BTC red on the day 6 of 8, ETH 6 of 8, and LOWER a week later 7 of 8
The split that matters today: ETH came in DOWN 5% over five days. In the 30 meetings where ETH came in down, the five-day return after was a median +2.0% and negative only 33% of the time. Coming in sold is historically the better side of a Fed day. That is the honest counter-argument to anyone short here, us included.
THE LEVELS INTO FRIDAY
ETH: 20-day range 2,356–2,666. The line above is 2,533, the old range top. Below, 2,356 is the September low. Daily 200 EMA 2,171. 25 Sep options expiry max pain 2,200, 44% of all ETH options.
BTC: 20-day range 74,903–82,268. Daily 200 EMA 72,095. 25 Sep max pain 72,000.
WHAT WE ARE WATCHING
1. Does ETH close the day above 2,393, the pre-CPI line it lost this morning? If yes, the short squeeze had follow-through. If no, the spike was the whole move.
2. Whale shorts at $1.04bn. If they start covering, the +2% base case is on. If they add again into 2,430–2,533, it is the same book as before the meeting.
3. Friday's close against 2,533 and 82,268. The first hour of a Fed day is the trap more often than the trend. Friday is the tell.
Happy Hunting! 🫡
![harleyfoote_'s tweet photo. The Fed hiked 25bp. Crypto went UP. Here is why, and what usually happens next. 🏦🧵
THE SETUP
A hike was 88% priced on Polymarket at 18:00. Everyone knew. So the number was never the trade. The trade was the positioning into it: BTC came into the meeting −2.0% over five days, ETH −5.1%, both sitting on the lines we set before CPI (75,930 and 2,393). Funding positive, whales net short on both.
[STATEMENT LINE: one sentence on what the statement said, e.g. "The statement kept 'further firming' and gave no hint of a pause."]
THE FIRST 15 MINUTES
BTC 75,668 → 75,921 (+0.3%). Spiked to 76,547 in the first ten minutes, gave most of it back.
ETH 2,386 → 2,406 (+0.8%). Spiked to 2,430, holding 2,400.
The liquidation tape tells you what that spike was. Six venues, the four-hour window covering the decision:
• BTC: $36m of SHORTS liquidated, $4m of longs
• ETH: $12m of shorts, $9m of longs
Nine times more BTC shorts were force-closed than longs. That is not buying. That is shorts being closed for them. A short liquidation is a forced buy, and a book that came into the meeting short gets bought on the print no matter what the print says.
WHO GOT CAUGHT, WHO DIDN'T
On Hyperliquid, whales did not flinch. ETH whale shorts went $1,029m → $1,041m through the spike. They ADDED. BTC whale shorts $1,112m → $1,105m, barely touched. New whale wallets since the decision bought $1m of ETH and sold nothing.
The crowd: ETH 42% long before, 42% long now. Binance retail 76% long. Open interest ETH $2.32bn → $2.35bn, BTC $2.83bn → $2.80bn.
So the squeeze cleared the small shorts and the big ones stayed. That matters for the next few days.
WHAT FED DAYS USUALLY DO
We keep the base rates. 68 meetings since 2019:
• the Fed-day close is the low of the week only 22% of the time
• the median bounce from the Fed-day low over the next five days is +3.4%
• but the last 8 meetings: BTC red on the day 6 of 8, ETH 6 of 8, and LOWER a week later 7 of 8
The split that matters today: ETH came in DOWN 5% over five days. In the 30 meetings where ETH came in down, the five-day return after was a median +2.0% and negative only 33% of the time. Coming in sold is historically the better side of a Fed day. That is the honest counter-argument to anyone short here, us included.
THE LEVELS INTO FRIDAY
ETH: 20-day range 2,356–2,666. The line above is 2,533, the old range top. Below, 2,356 is the September low. Daily 200 EMA 2,171. 25 Sep options expiry max pain 2,200, 44% of all ETH options.
BTC: 20-day range 74,903–82,268. Daily 200 EMA 72,095. 25 Sep max pain 72,000.
WHAT WE ARE WATCHING
1. Does ETH close the day above 2,393, the pre-CPI line it lost this morning? If yes, the short squeeze had follow-through. If no, the spike was the whole move.
2. Whale shorts at $1.04bn. If they start covering, the +2% base case is on. If they add again into 2,430–2,533, it is the same book as before the meeting.
3. Friday's close against 2,533 and 82,268. The first hour of a Fed day is the trap more often than the trend. Friday is the tell.
Happy Hunting! 🫡](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HSW7kcJWsAIpgWr.jpg)
Everyone has a Fed narrative. Very few actually go back and test it.
37 meetings and 12 charts should make this one interesting.
Great work Harley
1/12 🏛️
Crypto sold off INTO the Fed.
BTC -3.3% yesterday. ETH -4.7%. Both at the bottom of a four-week range.
I pulled every FOMC meeting since January 2022 — 37 of them — to see what normally happens next.
12 charts. Data only, not advice. 👇
1/12 🏛️
Crypto sold off INTO the Fed.
BTC -3.3% yesterday. ETH -4.7%. Both at the bottom of a four-week range.
I pulled every FOMC meeting since January 2022 — 37 of them — to see what normally happens next.
12 charts. Data only, not advice. 👇
@autosofficial Love to see it
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Here's how big this is 🧵👇
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