Thread: China’s ghost cities, high-speed trains to nowhere, and mega infrastructure projects — why do they keep building? Is it growth… or desperation? Let’s break down the economic strategy behind the madness.
#China#Finance#Economy
@PronkDaniel Because FCF is not a good metric for the sector. It doesn’t take into account that churn is massive in the sector. Which is why acquisitions and restructuring is necessary to keep up growth. So D and A are real cash costs in this sector
@sparbuchfeinde Ich wohne seid 25 Jahren in Norwegen. Hier gibt es praktische kein Haus ohne wärmepumpe. Wer hier mehr als 1500€ zahlt, wird abgezockt. Hier werden im Normalfall 5000w Anlagen geliefert, was bei -30° mehr als ausreicht für ein großes Haus
@realroseceline You remind me of one of my favorite Peter lynch quotes: “Go for a business that any idiot can run – because sooner or later, any idiot probably is going to run it”
@realroseceline A good mix of multiple expansion and some growth, will definitely give you some nice returns. I don’t se why $GPN would be priced a higher multiple at some point.
@realroseceline A 300bps rate cut like certain people have called for, certainly wouldn’t hurt the napkin math on this one. Management previously has also proven that they can manage the debt burden
@realroseceline If they manage to grow 12% organically, the price looks pretty nice. I like managements capital allocation.
Thanks for the insights Rose
@realroseceline Let’s say they “just” manage $4b FCF, then you’re paying about 10x FCF for the EV. Not saying it’s expensive, but not really a “steal” either for a slow growing business. Or do you believe growth will pick up again?
@DavidBCollum The DAX contains mainly the major international companies, listed in Germany. A major part of their earnings are coming from other countries, thus not reflecting the German economy.
@weary_centurion Exactly, I’m not sure the market just yet has realized how hard it is to go bankrupt without debt. The only thing bothering me is that they should buy back more shares at these prices
@realroseceline Yeah agree with you on that one, they definitely deserve it.
Just as a shareholder, FCF will take a serious dent if SBC is subtracted. Even if it’s a non cash expense, it lowers shareholder returns