Santiago del Carril

LatAm reporter

[Santiago del Carril @delcarril]

Roberto Sánchez continues to narrow Keiko Fujimori's lead in Peru's presidential runoff.

With 93.833% of vote tallies from polling stations counted as of 1:36 p.m. local time, Fujimori leads by just 2,212 votes (50.006% to 49.994%), with 8,784,039 votes to Sánchez's 8,781,827.

While attention has focused on the remaining overseas vote, a large number of domestic votes are still outstanding, and Sánchez continues to close the gap.

[Santiago del Carril @delcarril]

With 93.556% of polling station reports processed, Keiko Fujimori holds a razor-thin lead over Roberto Sánchez in Peru's presidential runoff: 50.021% to 49.979%.

That's a margin of just 7,238 votes out of more than 17.5 million counted as of 12:08 p.m. Peru time

[Martin Castellano @mcastellano44]

Argentina is back to being a net energy exporter. We estimate each $10 increase in the oil price delivers a hard-currency windfall of $1.7bn (0.25% of GDP). A few years ago, the same shock would have eroded the current account. Now it props it up.

[Santiago del Carril @delcarril]

Official results just came out. Milei's party has won over 41.5% of the vote in Buenos Aires province with 92.2% of the votes counted. Really incredible!

[Santiago del Carril @delcarril]

LLA now seems to be leading even in Buenos Aires province, according to these exit polls. The province that is suppose to be the Peronist stronghold.

[Santiago del Carril @delcarril]

Some Peronist exit polls are indicating President Milei's Libertad Avanza (LLA) party winning 40% of the votes in Argentina, with Buenos Aires province close. Let's see if this pans out once the results start to be released in two hours.

[Santiago del Carril @delcarril]

The most optimistic scenario was a 35-40% national win for President Milei's LLA party in today's mid-term elections. Morgan Stanley anticipates a 50% rally in Argentina's equity market over the next 12 months if this ends up being the case.

[Hector R Torres @HectorRTorres2]

Excessive reliance on senior creditors, such as the US Treasury and the IMF, could crowd out private creditors, hindering the Milei administration’s ability to obtain private financing.
US backing won’t save Argentina without policy shift, economists warn https://t.co/1mEtHz21mc

[Buenos Aires Times @theBAtimes]

US backing won’t save Argentina without policy shift, economists warn

✍️ Santiago del Carril [@delcarril]

https://t.co/lvG47wZCi3

[Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent @SecScottBessent]

The @USTreasury has concluded 4 days of intensive meetings with Minister @LuisCaputoAR and his team in DC. We discussed Argentina’s strong economic fundamentals, including structural changes already underway that will generate significant dollar-denominated exports and foreign exchange reserves.

Argentina faces a moment of acute illiquidity. The international community – including @IMFNews – is unified behind Argentina and its prudent fiscal strategy, but only the United States can act swiftly. And act we will.

To that end, today we directly purchased Argentine pesos.

Additionally, we have finalized a $20 billion currency swap framework with Argentina’s central bank. The U.S. Treasury is prepared, immediately, to take whatever exceptional measures are warranted to provide stability to markets.

I emphasized to Minister Caputo that @POTUS @realDonaldTrump’s America First economic leadership is committed to strengthening our allies who welcome fair trade and American investment.

I continue to hear from American business leaders who, thanks to President Milei’s leadership, are eager to tie the American and Argentine economies more closely together. The Trump administration is resolute in our support for allies of the United States, and to that end we also discussed Argentina’s investment incentives, and U.S. tools to powerfully support investment in our strategic partners.

Minister Caputo informed me of his close coordination with the IMF on Argentina’s commitments under its program. Argentina’s policies, when anchored on fiscal discipline, are sound. Its exchange rate band remains fit for purpose.

We reviewed the broad political consensus in Argentina for the second half of President @JMilei’s term. I was encouraged by their focus on achieving fiscally sound economic freedom for the people of Argentina via lower taxes, higher investment, private sector job creation, and partnering with allies. As Argentina lifts the dead weight of the state and stops spending into inflation, great things are possible.

The success of Argentina’s reform agenda is of systemic importance, and a strong, stable Argentina which helps anchor a prosperous Western Hemisphere is in the strategic interest of the United States. Their success should be a bipartisan priority.

I look forward to the meeting between President Trump and President Milei on October 14, and to seeing Minister Caputo again on the margins of the IMF Annual Meetings.

[Financial Times @FT]

Argentina’s wily currency traders drain Javier Milei’s dollars https://t.co/s96nnaO2T1

[Santiago del Carril @delcarril]

Bolivia's pro-market opposition presidential candidates gain ground before the Aug 17 elections, while the 3rd place left-wing candidate declines. But 30% of undecided, blank, and null voters could be MAS voters in hiding. The Unitel Poll surveyed 2,500 people (July 5-7).

[Santiago del Carril @delcarril]

Delinquency rates on credit cards and auto loans spiked to their highest since the Great Recession. https://t.co/BuRwX0LZZ8

[Santiago del Carril @delcarril]

@ukigoni She will be deeply missed

[Santiago del Carril @delcarril]

@jongilbert9 No, it’s his son. Not Bob Cox, the former editor-in-chief of the Buenos Aires Herald.