newt

Reach heaven by violence.

[newt @deltaneutral0x]

Being dramatic by marking out the low, but I do think that too many people believe they've caught the bottom and that the rate hikes won't help. Still believe a bull market is on the horizon, but there will be fear on the timeline rather than anticipation.

Few more liquidations then up only.

[newt @deltaneutral0x]

Read the letter yourself here: https://t.co/7L4oM8EPqb

[newt @deltaneutral0x]

Did some more digging to figure out the radio silence behind $POLY, and this has confirmed a lot of what I was thinking. Letter to the CFTC by US Senators John R. Curtis and Adam B. Schiff, which explicitly mentions @Polymarket's marketing tactics.

Probably hard to announce a multi-billion dollar "free money" token program while you're being actively investigated for malicious advertising practices. If any of you remember the fake website drama from a few months ago, some of the points in the letter should ring a bell.

[newt @deltaneutral0x]

$POLY teases have been going on for a while, but I would also point out that the team is dealing with a pretty delicate situation, considering @Polymarket's desire to operate within regulatory frameworks internationally. @mustafap0ly said as much in the discord. Despite the intern jokes, he's a major developer for the platform, and has probably been told to not say too much while things get figured out.

Silence doesn't necessarily mean that work isn't being done, and the team has had a ton of opportunities to stage a scam exit if that was really their plan all along.

There are rumors that there will be some big announcements this month, so we'll just have to wait and see. Some hopium would still be appreciated in the meantime though (team, feel free to like if i'm onto something here).

[newt @deltaneutral0x]

So yeah, seems more likely that Mustafa wasn't joking in the server. The legal team is probably being very careful about how the product is being advertised, and the incentives they can offer users.

[newt @deltaneutral0x]

It’s already Wednesday

[Suhail Kakar @SuhailKakar]

@bogdikery @Remotion have one more thing coming up next week :)

[newt @deltaneutral0x]

@ikarusz26 @zoomerfied Posted a thread on this, but I have mixed feelings here. More value probably means higher FDV, or at least a higher reference point, but it also adds more red tape and means the team has another set of investors to consider.

[newt @deltaneutral0x]

This also backs up my pet theory that $POLY's TGE will involve a mid-to-long term vesting schedule. Pros and Cons here.

Pros:
- Should stop the chart from insta-nuking on day 1 as almost everyone will be full-clipping.
- Could be tied to utility and staking (e.g. stake some now to get faster access to the rest).

Cons:
- VC, staff, and affiliated will probably have preferential vesting timelines, and will be able to exit larger positions sooner than standard airdrop recipients.
- Vesting doesn't guarantee that the $POLY will go up in value in the long term. Ideally the token has real utility, represents a way of buying into prediction markets as a sector, and the industry itself becomes more popular, but we can't know for sure.
- The average "trader" who got rekt while hoping for an airdrop will probably be pretty upset that they waited years for a drop, and have to wait even longer for full access.

[newt @deltaneutral0x]

The Bad: More VC involvement means more investors to consider and lower financial incentives for TGE. The company is now extremely well-funded via traditional equity, and locking in high equity valuations, can weaken the incentive to give away a very large community allocation.

[henry @arithmoquine]

I was probably on track to have a Fields Medal or a Series C by now had I not been exposed to "situationships", "bildungsromans", and "beer o' clock" at such a critical stage in my cognitive development

[newt @deltaneutral0x]

Signaling stopped in the last few weeks, but, as I pointed out in my previous post, this could just be a function of legal necessity arising from ongoing investigations. I wouldn't get too excited yet, but this is by no means bearish news for the company, and will likely boost $POLY's value when it finally drops. Curious to hear everyone's thoughts though.

[newt @deltaneutral0x]

Kind of a curveball from @Polymarket here. New round and higher valuation. Obviously everyone is curious as to how this will affect their $POLY bags, but it's not as simple as 'higher valuation = moar money.'

Here's a quick thread on why:

[newt @deltaneutral0x]

The Good: Equity valuation ≠ token FDV, but in practice it acts as a strong anchor. A $20B+ private company valuation makes a $12–20B+ token FDV at TGE much more plausible than before, especially if the token has real utility (governance, fee sharing, staking, etc.), and this in turn affects community sentiment. A positive feedback loop, fueled by sentiment is a real possibility.

[newt @deltaneutral0x]

Agree with a lot of your points. Like @ikarusz26 said, they have some patent deadlines coming up later this year so we should hopefully have some more clarity by then. I do think that this is a unique situation because of the legislation involved, not to mention their size and the VC investors they have to consider. Really just a waiting game but yeah I'm keeping expectations fairly low for a near-term drop.

[newt @deltaneutral0x]

$POLY teases have been going on for a while, but I would also point out that the team is dealing with a pretty delicate situation, considering @Polymarket's desire to operate within regulatory frameworks internationally. @mustafap0ly said as much in the discord. Despite the intern jokes, he's a major developer for the platform, and has probably been told to not say too much while things get figured out.

Silence doesn't necessarily mean that work isn't being done, and the team has had a ton of opportunities to stage a scam exit if that was really their plan all along.

There are rumors that there will be some big announcements this month, so we'll just have to wait and see. Some hopium would still be appreciated in the meantime though (team, feel free to like if i'm onto something here).

[newt @deltaneutral0x]

First like on this post btw. Don’t want to give the game away, but look at the badge affiliates get and tell me if you can spot the difference. Looks like $POLY is still on the table.

[newt @deltaneutral0x]

$POLY teases have been going on for a while, but I would also point out that the team is dealing with a pretty delicate situation, considering @Polymarket's desire to operate within regulatory frameworks internationally. @mustafap0ly said as much in the discord. Despite the intern jokes, he's a major developer for the platform, and has probably been told to not say too much while things get figured out.

Silence doesn't necessarily mean that work isn't being done, and the team has had a ton of opportunities to stage a scam exit if that was really their plan all along.

There are rumors that there will be some big announcements this month, so we'll just have to wait and see. Some hopium would still be appreciated in the meantime though (team, feel free to like if i'm onto something here).

[newt @deltaneutral0x]

@polybacktests @Polymarket @mustafap0ly More details would be nice, but they’re under investigation by the CFTC and multiple states while crypto remains in a legal gray zone. Clarity Act delays aren’t helping either.

Not trying to glaze them, and not a shill. Just trying to make sense of it like everyone else.

[newt @deltaneutral0x]

Update: https://t.co/R9vLm7OnO4

[newt @deltaneutral0x]

First like on this post btw. Don’t want to give the game away, but look at the badge affiliates get and tell me if you can spot the difference.

[newt @deltaneutral0x]

@mrseven_1 @Polymarket @mustafap0ly

[newt @deltaneutral0x]

@CryptoParadyme Probably. A concerning number of people think they’ve caught the bottom, and have seemingly forgot how crushing cycle bottoms have been in the past. Think there’s more pain in store in the short term.