This was the intel shared with the Poles, Scandinavians and Balts a few months back -- and met with a fair degree of skepticism, as I was told. It was then leaked in the Polish media and caused quite a stir in Polish defense circles.
The more probable threat scenarios laid out here -- cyberattacks, sabotage operations and drone swarms -- aren't just hypothetical; they're happening now. (See the latest drone incident in Leipzig.)
Note this, however: "The likelihood of the most extreme scenario—a limited land incursion—is low, but gets higher as time goes on, according to the reports."
A "limited land incursion" is an invasion of NATO territory. That would either put Russia in a state of open war with the alliance or simply end the alliance in the event that Article V went unhonored (what the Russians would most want to happen). This applies with or without U.S. participation. I'd imagine Ukraine would also participate in a second front under such circumstances, not only in common cause but to relieve pressure along the contact line at home.
The skepticism was rooted in the belief among Eastern Flank partners (and, as always, there were disagreements among them) that Russia couldn't afford to test Article V's integrity given its struggles on a non-NATO battlefield. Perhaps views among those partners have shifted in light of reported U.S. shortages of critical munitions. That reporting and the timing of this leak don't seem coincidental.
@SenBillCassidy How can you look at yourself in the mirror? I used to think you were a man of principle. Hope the consulting/lobbying gig is worth your soul
Putin's plan is Trump's plan is Putin's plan.
Take away Ukraine's air defenses, allow Russia to massacre Ukrainians with ballistic missiles, send in Kushner and Witkoff to do a "deal".
Trump is Putin's whore.
Trump's grovelling servitude to his Russian master is losing the US arms industry's biggest clients - Europe.
Ukraine in partnership with EU nations will have the world's best air defense systems, leaving the US in the dust, as they did with drones.
Ken Paxton failed to disclose he secretly purchased real estate worth millions of dollars in Hawaii, Florida, and Utah.
Experts say this is a direct violation of Texas state ethics rules.
Lyme disease Borrelia spirochetes are 60,000 years old, they predate the first Paleo-Indians who crossed over Beringia from Siberia @YaleMed@Yale
https://t.co/jDlmct9Y6V
With the American electorate and both houses of Congress supporting Ukraine, it's only Trump and his dreams of Russian riches that stops the US from truly helping Ukraine.
Trump is Putin's whore.
Just FYI no surprise but @FoxNews has no story about the govt dropping charges against the “reflecting pool vandal” and admitting it was bad construction work
Browder: Trump is on Putin’s side.
Whatever deal Trump may have with Putin keeps him from acting in the US national interest.
Asked about reports Russia gave Iran targeting data for strikes on US bases, Trump refused to acknowledge them and said he would check with Putin. 1/