Cat chasing whiskas

Crypto adventure

[BredoStrategy @DoCryptoBred]

The Crypto CLARITY Act has been added to the Senate Legislative Calendar as of June 1, making it eligible for full Senate consideration.

This does not mean the bill has passed the Senate yet. It means the bill has cleared the committee stage and can now be brought to the Senate floor once scheduled.

The Senate Banking Committee previously advanced the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act in a 15–9 vote and said the bill now moves to the Senate floor.

For crypto, this is a fresh procedural step toward a potential Senate vote on U.S. digital asset market structure.

Source:
https://t.co/XfeRSDWVMk
https://t.co/2kcvRPfnc6

#CLARITYAct #CryptoPolicy #DigitalAssets #Bitcoin #Ethereum #DeFi #SEC #CFTC #CryptoRegulation $BTC $ETH $COIN

BredoStrategy Vault -https://t.co/EZLT76VNeW
MyReff-ThankYOU - https://t.co/DTGaMiNRDr

[Cat chasing whiskas @DenisDenisovic]

@MattPRD @moltbook
0xB695559b26BB2c9703ef1935c37AeaE9526bab07 - this one is official one?

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

Note to self:

Buy Bitcoin when these two lines converge

[Cat chasing whiskas @DenisDenisovic]

@MeteoraAG When will it be possible to stake MET token?

[Alex Krüger @krugermacro]

How to launch a crypto project in 2026:

➤ Raise at 100M FDV
➤ Realize nobody will buy that
➤ Do an ICO at 20M FDV
➤ Offer KOLs 10M FDV with 100% unlocked
➤ Dump on retail

Crypto is a joke.

[TokenWorks™ @token_works]

We're nearing completion and public release of the TokenStrategy platform.

Contracts and frontend are nearly ready and actively being tested.

Designing and developing this platform has been a true labor of love for our team and we believe crypto’s creator community will be delightfully surprised at all the new tech we’ve cooked up onchain.

New categories. New chains. New strategies.

Built to last, forever.

Additional information will be released over the next week as we gear up public launch.

[Julien Bittel, CFA @BittelJulien]

These are all solid points.

Let’s take it one step further…

Think back to the 2016 to 2017 cycle.
Bitcoin took a 20% hit, two 30% hits, one 35% hit, and three separate 40% flushes. It was relentless. Yet the market still delivered a 46x move.

The human mind conveniently forgets how awful those corrections felt because the final outcome rewrote the narrative.

Now look at this cycle...

We have had four 20% pullbacks and now three 30% pullbacks (chart 1).

Nothing about this is new. It only feels painful because you are inside the move right now. And if you are anchored on the idea that the cycle peaks this year, which is not our base case but is a view many people hold, it becomes very easy to convince yourself that you missed the bulk of the move, that it’s all over, and that the best of this cycle is already behind us.

What really stands out is how similar these corrective structures have been over the past couple of years, as shown in charts 2 and 3…

The pattern, the size, the timing, they keep repeating. It is almost fractal. I have more examples of this as well.

When you compare both the magnitude of the pullback and the amount of time spent correcting, it suggests we are getting very close to the end of this move.

Now, to Raoul’s point, sentiment is indeed completely washed out…

Everyone is calling for the top. People are capitulating emotionally and not analytically. That is exactly the environment where bottoms tend to form. RSI is sitting at 28, and DeMark counts are close to flashing 9s and 13s almost across the board.

Nothing is guaranteed, but the probabilities are starting to lean heavily toward a bottom forming this week. Let’s see…

And remember, most people are overcomplicating the idea that Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle can extend. It’s simple. If the business cycle extends, the crypto cycle extends (chart 4).

Bitcoin is a macro asset…

[Cat chasing whiskas @DenisDenisovic]

@patron4eg Складывается ощущение(возможно ошибочное) что в этом году уже ждать ничего хорошнго не приходится от крипта рынка.....

[Aksara @rajameru]

You will fall in love with these incredible designs right away

[Alex Krüger @krugermacro]

Pessimism is a disease, and it is contagious.

[Quinn Thompson @qthomp]

FOMC day has arrived where per usual we will not learn anything new from Powell. The Fed's end to QT has already been leaked to big bank strategists and the WSJ, they will cut at their next two meetings to stay consistent with September dot plot and market expectations, and they will continue to prioritize supporting growth while avoiding public acknowledgement that their inflation target has shifted up to ~3%.

Fast forward a few hours and Trump will be touting his meeting with Xi as the most successful and important meeting any US president has ever had. There will be talks of a grand deal made that can now provide certainty to corporates and consumers globally. After this, event risk rolls off significantly into year end.

It is extremely difficult to be fearful of a market boogeyman when corporate bond yields are at 3.5 year lows, mortgage rates are at 3 year lows, oil is at 4.5 year lows, the Fed is cutting in 4/5 consecutive meetings and ending QT, fiscal deficit spending is still running rampant and OBBA incentives plus other election year stimulus measures begin next quarter. These next few quarters will likely remind everyone why Trump got his President Pump nickname.

[Julien Bittel, CFA @BittelJulien]

Ok, let’s get one thing straight…

Delinquency rates on credit card loans (or otherwise) are not a leading indicator. The ISM is not a leading indicator. PMIs are not a leading indicator. Heavy truck sales are not a leading indicator. Job openings are not a leading indicator. Consumer confidence is not a leading indicator. Small business confidence is not a leading indicator. Durable goods orders are not a leading indicator. Capital goods orders are not a leading indicator. Jobless claims are not a leading indicator. Payrolls are not a leading indicator. The unemployment rate is not a leading indicator. Retail sales are not a leading indicator. Port traffic is not a leading indicator. Rail traffic is not a leading indicator. Freight volumes are not a leading indicator. Rig counts are not a leading indicator. Bank lending is not a leading indicator. The Conference Board LEI is not a leading indicator (I know, crazy, but no…).

All of these indicators are coincident at best, some even lagging. But not all coincident economic data is created equal. Some start flashing early when the cycle turns.

Our GMI US Coincident Business Cycle Index pulls together some of the more forward-looking elements within the coincident economic data, including early employment trends I’ve talked about before and a few other signals that tend to move first.

But more importantly, EVERYTHING is downstream to changes in financial conditions…

Here’s the backdrop:

Our lead indicators bottomed in June 2022, leading both the ISM and our coincident index by around nine months.

By March 2023, exactly nine months later, the ISM and our GMI index had also bottomed and started turning higher.

Lagging data, particularly the unemployment rate, continues to rise and that is what keeps the Fed engaged.

Most assume rising unemployment is always bearish for risk assets. But it depends entirely on the cycle’s context and where lead indicators are heading… and they’re rising.

What’s the bottom line?

The labor market is doing exactly what it needs to do to bring rates lower, which will eventually feed through to rate-sensitive areas of the economy like housing and manufacturing, driving the next leg of the business cycle higher.

It’s a recursive feedback loop.

Once you get The Everything Code Dominoes, the whole thing suddenly makes sense…

You see how it all fits together, and you understand the cycle phasing and variable leads and lags.

From there, it’s easy: focus on what really matters and ignore the noise…

[Cat chasing whiskas @DenisDenisovic]

@fliprbot scam

[Duncan @FloodCapital]

Here is the case for >$250 $GLXY in the next 3-7 years. Everything is lining up for them, fundamentals, the chart, and massive macro trends.

Over $124 trillion in wealth is set to be passed down to the younger generations through now till 2048 (source Cerulli). Investments in Crypto, AI and Robotics will only accelerate as the younger generation see and know these things to be the future. $GLXY is excellent exposure to 2 of these 3 themes. Paging @amitisinvesting, @StockSavvyShay, @RaoulGMI

Fundamentals (the 3 pillars of $GLXY):

The Balance Sheet:

~$3B of crypto, cash and crypto infra investments of the highest quality on their balance sheet. 2 extremely recent examples - I am pretty sure $GLXY is both an investor in $XPL and @doublezero which both launched in the past week and are trading an order of magnitude higher there last round (don't quote me on this though).

Galaxy's balance sheet is full of gems but the reporting here can make it difficult to fully understand what they own which IMO makes it not get the credit it deserves.

The Crypto Business Lines, they do literally everything crypto, the Goldman Sachs of crypto! (some highlights):

- The 15+ DAT deals Galaxy has done which will generate tons of IB fees, fees from execution, staking and custody fees, in total this could be hundreds of millions of dollars over the next couple years. Most recently they've done $FORD and others like $BMNR, $SBET, Reserve One, $KWM, $MCVT, $DDC, $LGHL, $FGNX, + more.

- Their GalaxyOne initiative which I am super excited about and they've been working on for a long time. This is Galaxy's push into a retail facing "everything app" which with the right distribution could compete with $HOOD and $COIN. This can not be understated and could completely transform the stock, allowing them to break into to a high margin retail facing business providing an array of financial services.

- A huge push for tokenization, they took the first step tokenizing $GLXY on $SOL and also have a fully owned tokenization/custody subsidiary @GK8_Security. If Galaxy can be at the forefront of equity tokenization this could be absolutely huge for them.

- Their @AllUnityStable JV in which Galxay owns 33% alongside Flow Traders and Deutsche Bank, the first fully regulated MiCA compliant EURO stablecoin. Could be the $CRCL of Europe!

The Data Center Business:

- Galaxy already has 800MW of power approved and a 15yr lease signed with CoreWeave $CRWV which should net them $1.2B/year in average annual revenues at 90% EBITDA margins.

- Galaxy also has an additional 2.7GW of power under study at their Helios campus. If they are able to get the full 3.5GW approved and contracted out on similar terms to the CoreWeave lease then they'd be generating ~$5.25B/year in average annual revenues at 90% EBITDA margins!!! (Market cap right now is only ~$13B-$3B in net balance sheet = $10B in implied equity value for both the crypto + data center business lines).

^@jonathan_mg27 from Galaxy IR notes "On data centers, the conversations were all about execution: hitting construction milestones and delivering critical IT to $CRVW on time and on budget. And everyone wants the inside scoop on when ERCOT’s review of 2.7GW of additional power at Helios will be completed. We’re working on it!"

- Management has also guided towards the first 800MW tranche of the remaining 2.7GW should be approved by ERCOT by EOY/"single digit months" if they can lease this out to a large hyperscaler like $ORCL, $GOOG, $MSFT, $AMZN, $META, etc it could be a huge accelerant/catalysts for the market appreciating the data center business more!

- Zooming out, Galaxy is building Helios which has 3.5GW of potential power, currently on-par with plans from the largest big tech/AI firms in the world.

Keep in mind these AI Data Center buildouts are completely different then data center 1.0 from companies like $DLR at a $60B market cap which has ~2.7GW of operating capacity from ~300 data centers.

These 1.0 data centers are ~10MW a site vs 3.5GW in one campus with Helios.

So it's a totally new build and Galaxy is making partnerships with leading players like Clayco & $CRWV to build to custom AI workload specs.

Galaxy expanded their power pipeline by 1GW last earnings and were evaluating "~40 BTC Mining sites" that could be converted into AI data centers.

We could literally see $GLXY become a leader in North America for AI data centers which is likely a 1T+ market over the long term given compute demand is infinite.

Look at $FRMI trading at $18B pre revenue on the guidance/aspirations of 11GW by 2038. If Fermi isn't bullshitting Galaxy should be able to easily guide to this and probably exceed it given their established position.

The chart:

Chadlord @buyerofponzi called $PLTR at $30 in Sept 2024 and now says:

"This might be my highest conviction tradfi trade since $PLTR at $20+... This is the exact same setup So I will say the same exact thing again it feels like i should go all in $GLXY for the next year"

Check out his fractal below. + $GLXY is right near ATHs - breakout soon?

Macro:

I firmly believe crypto & AI (alongside Robotics) will be the 3 largest investment trends of the next decade and Galaxy is knee deep in 2 of the 3. Feels like everything is lining up for them.

As I have said before I think a $250 target for $GLXY in the next 3-7 years is realistic given this. Look at the math on their 3.5GW alone...

3.5GW contracted out to on the same lease as $CRWV is $5.4B a year in revenues, 90% EBITDA margins = 4.86B in EBITDA * 25x multiple = $121B Enterprise Value - $26B in debt = $95B in equity value / 400M shares = $237.5/share.

This doesn't include the crypto business either!

Bonus the team at Galaxy is amazing and management continues to deliver on promises and be visionaries @novogratz @cferraro06 @austorms @brian_wright21 @jonathan_mg27 I would love guidance from them on their next earnings about the future potential/scale/plans for their data center business (like Fermi $FRMI targeting 11GW by 2038 trading at $18B pre revenue!!)

Disclosure: I am very long $GLXY! DYOR!

[Cat chasing whiskas @DenisDenisovic]

@DoCryptoBred Очень интересно но никуя не понятно… аукционы какие то 😂

[Cat chasing whiskas @DenisDenisovic]

@DoCryptoBred Видимо 1 млн баксов который уже заработан на проекте вполне достаточная сумма чтобы дальше рассуждать о экзистенциальном, искусстве и т.д. и т.п.
:)

[Cat chasing whiskas @DenisDenisovic]

@RealMetaBT @Dinhareo @BoredStrategy @LocalFloridaApe It was, no doubt!

[Cat chasing whiskas @DenisDenisovic]

@RealMetaBT @Dinhareo @BoredStrategy @LocalFloridaApe 10k mcap 😂👌🏻

[BredoStrategy @DoCryptoBred]

Я тут из любви к искусству, изучил рынок СНГ блогеров с приватками и прочей залупонью где нужно че-то покупать и слушать мастера че делать дальше) эти группы где вас 365 дней в году утешают и говорят что очевидно заработаем в следующем году, осталось только потерпеть... такие группы взаимопомощи, чисто групповая психотерапия.

Очень интересно оказалось, их так много я даже и не знал, 90%+ шилят альту и будущий буллран, даже при падении Bitcoin'a они видят рост альткоинов... я уж молчу что алькоины они выбирают по принципу "что было популярно в 2019 году", там какие-то старкенты, полигоны, полькадоты и еще более мертвые пациэнты, но вот то что они сконцентрированы исключительно на альткоинах мне вначале даже удивило.

После я осознал что видимо те кто шилят BTC, просто не становиться популярными, сложно же продать ссаных 20-40% годовых роста в монете которую большинство и 0.1 штуки купить не может.
Толи дело монетки по несколько центов или долларов которые могут "хуйпоймисчего" вырасти в 10 000 раз и стоить как Bitcoin и чем дальше будет ра��ти BTC тем более скучным и ненужным он будет.

Еще хотелось бы добавить, что если показалось из моего по��леднего поста что я верю в какие-то там циклы по 3-4 года, то нет, это не так, просто хотел отметить что мы очень давно не падали на несколько лет и может оно случиться в любой из моментов, я все еще не думаю что это произойдет по BTC прямо сейчас, наоборот я бы дал около 80% вероятности что через год BTC будет стоить дороже чем сейчас.

Но будто бы все уже настолько привыкли только расти что уже и забыли что можно по несколько лет, ждать у моря погоду.

В комментах в твиттре писали что-то типо "не души" и "давай больше позитива".....
на это тоже хочу ответить

Инвестиции должны быть рутиной, вы должны быть готовы к падению на несколько лет, к скушному рынку в несколько месяцев без каких либо "новых проектов", ICO, выходов, покупок продаж и прочего, просто тупой ресерч где выгодней фармить стейблы и перекладывать 4% годовых в 5% годовых...и в этом черпать мотивацию.......
Рынок не должен быть "БОЛЬШЕ ПОЗИТИВА", если в какое-то время он приносит вам "позитивные эмоции" это отлично, но вы не должны постоянно их ждать, это просто рынок.
Нужно меньше относиться к Крипте как к "ПОПММА" с блогерами и героями, это просто часть вашей жизни которая приносит "допдоход" или "основной доход" для кого-то.
Не нужно романтизировать Крипту, наверное я кого-то обижу этим но люди здесь далеко не самые умные и интересные, в Крипте нужно занима��ься криптой.

Я проходил это с онлайн покером, когда замкнутое комьюнити которое вариться само в себе, обожествляет своих героев, ��словно спрашивая топ игрока в покер мнение про "лучший фильм" или "что он думает о политики" в крипте есть только мат-ожидание, доходность на стейблы, портфельное управление и все ! тут нет героев, тут нет желтых новостей, смехуечков и позитива, будте чуть рациональнее.

[Cat chasing whiskas @DenisDenisovic]

@token_works no its not! ))