Quinn Thompson

CIO @Lekker_Cap | Podcast @ForwardGuidance

[Quinn Thompson @qthomp]

The final tally came out to just over $10,500. Thank you again to everyone who took part! @Tyler_Neville_ and I recorded the roundup with our fresh cuts yesterday. We did the best we could without @fejau_inc but we may or may not look like we recorded straight out of jail😂

[Forward Guidance @ForwardGuidance]

NEW ROUNDUP: Can The AI Driven Rally Continue?

We discuss:
- Bond market sell off
- The AI driven rally
- Are we in a bubble?
- Tailwinds for energy
- Trillion dollar IPOs & more!

Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
03:42 The Bond Market Sell Off
14:32 Can This Market Bubble Continue?
29:06 Why Active is Outperforming Passive
38:44 The Wave of Trillion Dollar IPOs

@Tyler_Neville_ @qthomp

[Quinn Thompson @qthomp]

Japan has defied more gravity than any other equity market in the last year.

Most indebted country in the world. Imports 60% of food and 90% of energy. Median age of 50. Losing a city the size of San Francisco every year to population decline.

Yet the Nikkei has outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly +30% since Liberation Day without the AI and semiconductor darlings.

USDJPY is back to 160 area and JGB yield curves are screaming for tightening. Keep an eye on this space over the coming weeks.

[Quinn Thompson @qthomp]

https://t.co/jCxZ5tV2yq

[Quinn Thompson @qthomp]

Never forget $STRC was advertised as a bank account replacement for low and middle income households by @Strategy management team

[Quinn Thompson @qthomp]

@cullenroche White collar crime is legal under this administration though. https://t.co/Slbaqwvr1q

[Quinn Thompson @qthomp]

Funny how this meme works for every new thing Saylor drums up.

"Can you please explain $STRC?" Yeah sure.

[Quinn Thompson @qthomp]

“Steady”…not sure the market agrees but let’s see. For the month of June it appears Strategy will be prioritizing MSTR owners over STRC owners.

[Quinn Thompson @qthomp]

Semiconductor leveraged long ETF AUM has more than doubled from in less than 2 months.

Mag7 option skew has gone negative for the first time since October 2025.

Tech upside panic is back and bubble or not, the data says to tread carefully. The ideal setups right now are in unloved, uncrowded sectors showing greenshoots.

[Quinn Thompson @qthomp]

https://t.co/jCxZ5tV2yq

[Quinn Thompson @qthomp]

@matthew_sigel Raising STRC dividend rate to support STRC price is bad for MSTR. They chose not to do that despite there being precedent for them raising STRC dividend rate at similar STRC prices in the past (end of Oct, Dec, Jan rate increases all occurred in the mid-high 98s).

[Quinn Thompson @qthomp]

Not a great reaction for MSTR today. I can understand the no dividend increase as MSTR is their best chance at raising capital this month with the mNAV >1.2. That said, the decision to keep STRC as is = bad for BTC price. It's also not great that MSTR and the premium are getting hit so hard today despite their decision to prioritize it over STRC, which is also moving in the wrong direction as well. Given all of this, BTC's bleed should surprise no one - the problem is I don't know what changes this negative trajectory anytime soon.

[Quinn Thompson @qthomp]

“Steady”…not sure the market agrees but let’s see. For the month of June it appears Strategy will be prioritizing MSTR owners over STRC owners.

[Quinn Thompson @qthomp]

Signs of consumer stress and stagflation are piling up as the record stock market gains and pending trillion dollar IPOs do not accrue evenly. Walmart's recent earnings report backs this up with hard data.

As real wage growth moves negative and inflation pushes into the 4-5% range, it should surprise no one to see a policy focus shift akin to earlier in the year (eg credit card rate caps, housing stimulus).

[Quinn Thompson @qthomp]

https://t.co/jCxZ5tV2yq

[Quinn Thompson @qthomp]

TACO = Trump Always 🐓 Out

[Quinn Thompson @qthomp]

The first potential signs of another major Trump 🌮

His political capital amongst voters is "running on E" and he needs to divert attention away from the failed Iran War as his polling and rating numbers decline.

He's already brought the largest aircraft carrier and strike group back home. Would not surprise me at all to see the "blockade" covertly stop being enforced and just quietly fall away.

This is the same pattern as the tariffs. Notice how those have faded into the background while the effective tariff rate has fallen from 13% to 8%. This was another failed policy/rollout that he wants voters to forget about.

As @jam_croissant likes to say, Trump embodies the opposite of "speak softly and carry a big stick". He speaks loudly and carries a little stick - that is the definition of TACO.

[Quinn Thompson @qthomp]

@PonyFoundation MSTR being down only since the launch of STRC suggests otherwise

[Quinn Thompson @qthomp]

“Steady”…not sure the market agrees but let’s see. For the month of June it appears Strategy will be prioritizing MSTR owners over STRC owners.

[Quinn Thompson @qthomp]

TBD whether or not $STRC holders will get a dividend rate increase announced in a few days.

[Quinn Thompson @qthomp]

New Scouting the Tape is out.

Volatility is nowhere to be found and the administration has every incentive to keep it that way into midterms but the last few months winners may pass the baton to other themes as the administration's focus must adapt into November.

[Quinn Thompson @qthomp]

https://t.co/jCxZ5tV2yq

[Quinn Thompson @qthomp]

Tin foil hat thought of the day. What a coincidence that the blue origin rocket blows up and is all over the media just weeks before the SpaceX IPO.

[Quinn Thompson @qthomp]

@Jack_Raines D is an easy decision, especially if the lines extending into Brooklyn are included

[Quinn Thompson @qthomp]

https://t.co/jCxZ5tV2yq

[Quinn Thompson @qthomp]

@IEarhart 🫶🏼

[Quinn Thompson @qthomp]

Gasoline futures are still +80% YTD.

[Quinn Thompson @qthomp]

"Hey we know you can't afford steak anymore, inflation is growing faster than your wages, you had to cancel your summer road trip and there's a datacenter being built next to your kid's school, but at least there's no men in women's sports any more!"
- Trump, probably

[Quinn Thompson @qthomp]

The first potential signs of another major Trump 🌮

His political capital amongst voters is "running on E" and he needs to divert attention away from the failed Iran War as his polling and rating numbers decline.

He's already brought the largest aircraft carrier and strike group back home. Would not surprise me at all to see the "blockade" covertly stop being enforced and just quietly fall away.

This is the same pattern as the tariffs. Notice how those have faded into the background while the effective tariff rate has fallen from 13% to 8%. This was another failed policy/rollout that he wants voters to forget about.

As @jam_croissant likes to say, Trump embodies the opposite of "speak softly and carry a big stick". He speaks loudly and carries a little stick - that is the definition of TACO.