Dennis Montoro

Pro bettor that creates prediction models focused on horse racing and sports. Trying to take advantage of my advantage.

[Dennis Montoro @dennycaps1]

So you want to bet for a living? A short thread on my first 4 months as a full-time bettor. I've done this in the past, but I like to journal my thoughts, observations, etc as it relates to betting. 1/15

[Dennis Montoro @dennycaps1]

@goldenpants013 @Sports__Proj I absolutely refuse to be nice to a robot that talks down to me half the time.

[Dennis Montoro @dennycaps1]

@goldenpants013 @Sports__Proj I recently learned people who have real jobs and use Claude/LLM's may have to share their transcripts. What is the worst thing you've ever said to Claude that you wouldn't want to share with your boss?

[Dennis Montoro @dennycaps1]

@Pullthepocket

[Dennis Montoro @dennycaps1]

@PlusEVAnalytics @robpizzola If and when these things come alive, they're coming for me first based on my transcripts

[Dennis Montoro @dennycaps1]

@Pullthepocket Sounds familiar, yet it “doesn’t” have a CAW problem

[Dennis Montoro @dennycaps1]

@Sports__Proj @NickPreszler @goldenpants013 When 🐎 racing episode?

[Dennis Montoro @dennycaps1]

@derby1592 @KENTUCKY Does he need a job?

[Dennis Montoro @dennycaps1]

I think I posted this as a joke in the past and had to delete it because people were bookmarking the post.

Always funny to look back at your betting "models" from 20 years ago. Rob's was probably a little more profitable than mine.

Don't bookmark this.

[Rob Pizzola @robpizzola]

I get asked all the time how to build a betting model. Most people don't know where to start. So I dug up my first NHL model from 2017 and walked through the entire spreadsheet on camera. It's outdated but hopefully it gives people a starting point.

[Dennis Montoro @dennycaps1]

Great book from @derby1592 .

My thoughts:

Not a step by step how-to book. Rather, Chris provides a solid representation of the current landscape along with many relevant topics covered.

It’s really a collection of ideas and thought process of many players trying to solve the same problem with various approaches.

Best kind of book IMO because it helps me generates new ideas as I read through the many different topics covered.

[Dennis Montoro @dennycaps1]

You WILL be adversely selected. Love a horse to win at 10 cents? What happens when I post an order at 5 cents because I know something you don’t?

I’m not even going to discuss the potential integrity issues.

[Dennis Montoro @dennycaps1]

Let’s play fantasyland and say Kalshi can overcome IHA and lists yes/no win markets on daily races:

The CAWs aren’t going anywhere. In fact, they market make and supply liquidity. Guess who is on the other side of your sports betting trade right now?

(1/3)

[Dennis Montoro @dennycaps1]

Price discovery would be improved compared to parimutuel.

Obv pricing is much better compared to takeout, but I can’t see tight spreads with how much natural uncertainty is built into racing.

How much rec flow would there actually be? I question the liquidity.

(2/3)

[Dennis Montoro @dennycaps1]

Maybe it's the Kiwi accent, but Ship has the natural ability to say something incredibly simple, yet it speaks volumes. I've always walked away from any conversation with him with new ideas/perspective. Good conversation with Rob about being malleable with models, live betting spots, and price uncertainty opportunities.

[Circles Off 🔨 @CirclesOffHQ]

We brought back @ShipTheJustice for another Circles Off interview with @robpizzola 🎧

Here’s what they discuss:

🔵 Transition from trader to bettor
🔵 Common mistakes bettors make
🔵 Winning process
🔵 Much more

🎥 Check out the full video now!

[Dennis Montoro @dennycaps1]

@goldenpants013 Where’s the cat GP?

[Yaroslav Trofimov @yarotrof]

For all of you relying on AI for advice.

[Dennis Montoro @dennycaps1]

@EJXD2 My point more driven by shrinking handle and how that distributes by day of week. And since you track that, it should be apparent some days are going to have better ROI than others for obvious reasons.

[Dennis Montoro @dennycaps1]

@goldenpants013 @Sports__Proj A lot of the earliest market-based betting models were developed in horse racing, long before modern sports analytics. Why do you think so few people like you end up exploring racing? Loaded question, but I would appreciate the discussion

[Dennis Montoro @dennycaps1]

Great discussion on this question. I don’t believe there is a correct answer. Well calibrated probably worth more in general but directionally correct still worth a lot if you don’t have liquidity issues. Parimutuel pools are similar to PM’s where an information disadvantage will blow up your calibration. But quantifying that uncertainty is worth a lot. Directionally correct approach is limited by pool sizes

[Dennis Montoro @dennycaps1]

@goldenpants013 @Sports__Proj Would you rather have a model that is well calibrated and winning OR a model that is directionally correct with a seemingly larger edge?