Derek Orth,CMT

Chartered Market Technician, 30 plus years of market experience. These posts are NOT for investment advice, but for educational and tracking purposes only.

[Speaker Mike Johnson @SpeakerJohnson]

THIS is Marxism in practice: open borders, eroded sovereignty, and unlawful migration on a massive scale.

What’s happening in REAL TIME in Spain is EXACTLY the future the radical Left envisions for America. The socialists are ruining Spain just as they would the U.S.

We MUST defeat the Communist caucus Democrats. And we WILL!

[Derek Orth,CMT @derek121]

Communist systems, as implemented in the 20th century (Soviet Union, Maoist China, Cuba, North Korea, Eastern Bloc states, etc.) always produced a privileged political elite that lived far better than ordinary citizens. The official ideology promised a classless society without private wealth accumulation. Reality was different.
Theory vs. practice
•Theory (Marx, Engels, Lenin): After the dictatorship of the proletariat, the state would wither away. Private property in the means of production would end. There would be no capitalist class and, eventually, no significant material inequality. “From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs.”
•Practice: Power concentrated in a small party apparatus and its leadership. That power translated into material privileges even when formal private ownership was restricted. The elite (nomenklatura in the USSR, high party cadres elsewhere) got better housing, access to special stores, foreign goods, dachas, cars, medical care, travel, and education for their children that ordinary people could not obtain.
Clear historical patterns
•Soviet Union: The nomenklatura enjoyed closed distribution systems, country houses, and higher living standards while shortages were common for the public.
•China under Mao and afterward: Party officials and their families obtained privileges; after market reforms, many accumulated substantial private wealth while retaining political power.
•North Korea: The Kim family and top cadres control enormous resources relative to a population that has faced famine and extreme scarcity.
•Other cases (Romania under Ceaușescu, East Germany, Cuba) show the same gap between rulers and ruled.
Power, not formal ownership, became the main route to better material conditions. When the system later allowed private wealth (China after Deng, post-Soviet oligarchs with party or security backgrounds), those with political connections were often first in line.
This is not unique to communism—any highly centralized system with little accountability tends to enrich or privilege those who control it. But the claim that communism eliminates the phenomenon of “the ones at the top becoming rich” is contradicted by the historical record of every major attempt to implement it.

[Derek Orth,CMT @derek121]

Communist systems, as implemented in the 20th century (Soviet Union, Maoist China, Cuba, North Korea, Eastern Bloc states, etc.) always produced a privileged political elite that lived far better than ordinary citizens. The official ideology promised a classless society without private wealth accumulation. Reality was different.
Theory vs. practice
•Theory (Marx, Engels, Lenin): After the dictatorship of the proletariat, the state would wither away. Private property in the means of production would end. There would be no capitalist class and, eventually, no significant material inequality. “From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs.”
•Practice: Power concentrated in a small party apparatus and its leadership. That power translated into material privileges even when formal private ownership was restricted. The elite (nomenklatura in the USSR, high party cadres elsewhere) got better housing, access to special stores, foreign goods, dachas, cars, medical care, travel, and education for their children that ordinary people could not obtain.
Clear historical patterns
•Soviet Union: The nomenklatura enjoyed closed distribution systems, country houses, and higher living standards while shortages were common for the public.
•China under Mao and afterward: Party officials and their families obtained privileges; after market reforms, many accumulated substantial private wealth while retaining political power.
•North Korea: The Kim family and top cadres control enormous resources relative to a population that has faced famine and extreme scarcity.
•Other cases (Romania under Ceaușescu, East Germany, Cuba) show the same gap between rulers and ruled.
Power, not formal ownership, became the main route to better material conditions. When the system later allowed private wealth (China after Deng, post-Soviet oligarchs with party or security backgrounds), those with political connections were often first in line.
This is not unique to communism—any highly centralized system with little accountability tends to enrich or privilege those who control it. But the claim that communism eliminates the phenomenon of “the ones at the top becoming rich” is contradicted by the historical record of every major attempt to implement it.

[Derek Orth,CMT @derek121]

@Tironianae https://t.co/1R7GhpxEvl

[Derek Orth,CMT @derek121]

@QTruth01

[Derek Orth,CMT @derek121]

@warDaniel47 https://t.co/1R7GhpxEvl

[Derek Orth,CMT @derek121]

@DrcharlieWardQ https://t.co/1R7GhpxEvl

[Speaker Mike Johnson @SpeakerJohnson]

THE BARBARIANS ARE INSIDE THE GATE!

We are fighting right now in Congress over whether we're going to maintain our status as a constitutional republic OR trade that in, dismantle the foundations and GO DOWN THIS DARK ROAD OF DEATH TO COMMUNISM.

THAT is the question.

[Kayleigh McEnany @kayleighmcenany]

🚨 Justice Alito NAILED IT in his birthright citizenship dissent:

“This is one of the most important decisions in the history of the Court, and in my judgment, the Court has made a serious mistake.”

The 14th Amendment clearly states "All persons born or naturalized in the United States, AND SUBJECT TO THE JURISDICTION THEREOF, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside."

As Justice Thomas wrote: "Children born to temporary visitors owed allegiance to another government—the country of their domicile—so they were not subject to the jurisdiction of the United States."

The logical manifestation of the majority upholding birthright citizenship is that BILLIONS of foreigners -- including from HOSTILE NATIONS -- have instant access to U.S. citizenship for their children.

All they must do is set foot on American soil and give birth to a child. No need to stay.

This makes precious little sense, and Justice Thomas is correct: "I am not sure that today’s opinion will stand the test of time. The Citizenship Clause 'added greatly to the dignity and glory of American citizenship.' Today’s opinion devalues that citizenship."

@TheFive @FoxNews ⬇️

[Dr. Dawn Michael @DawnsMission]

😡 My heart is breaking watching this...

Justice Clarence Thomas just dropped the TRUTH that every American needs to hear. Progressivism isn’t just some harmless idea — it’s a direct assault on the very soul of this country. It wants to replace God-given rights with government-granted privileges. It demands we become weak, subservient, and dependent.

This is an OUTRAGE. I sure do hope that Congress will finally step up and FIX THIS before it’s too late. Justice Clarence Thomas is a TRUE PATRIOT — a man of courage, conviction, and unwavering love for the Constitution and the America our Founders envisioned.

In a time when so many are afraid to speak truth, he stands tall. I am sure that you are just as OUTRAGED over this as I am. If this video moves you like it moved me, share it. Loudly. Our rights don’t come from Washington. They come from God. And no government will ever take that away from us.

[Derek Orth,CMT @derek121]

The Buttonwood Agreement 1792

[Derek Orth,CMT @derek121]

@nicksortor Make an amendment to the amendment that citizenship is granted on the child's 18th birthday if they complete through the high school level in the United States. Student visa only until completion. 🤷🏻‍♂️

[1776 Live @250YearsAgoLive]

British forces launch a full assault on Fort Sullivan, South Carolina.

The position does not fall as quickly as they would have pleased; British cannon fire bounces off the Patriot Fort, which is constructed of palmetto logs.

The British bullets cut down the militia flag, and young Patriot Sergeant William Jasper races to the pole and raises it under withering fire.

Meanwhile, American fire does substantial damage to Royal Navy ships.

Although 2,200 British troops and nine ships attacked a fort with only 400 militia inside, just 12 Patriots are killed for the loss of 91 British and severe damage to their ships.

They do not take the Fort and they are compelled to retreat.

[1776 Live @250YearsAgoLive]

At Turtle Gut Inlet, New Jersey, Continental and Royal Navy ships battle.

The Americans win a narrow victory, with the loss of 24 British sailors.

Only one American is killed, 29-year-old Richard Wickes, the first man from New Jersey to die in battle in the war.

[Derek Orth,CMT @derek121]

My take,

Kevin Warsh just ran his first FOMC meeting as Fed Chair, and the dot plot did the talking. Rates held at 3.50%–3.75% as expected, but nine of eighteen officials now see at least one hike before year-end, six of those penciling in multiple. Warsh also stepped away from formal forward guidance, telling reporters the committee won't pre-commit to a path going forward. Markets read it as hawkish and repriced fast — futures now have a quarter-point hike essentially fully baked in for the December meeting.

The reaction across assets was broad-based. The S&P 500 fell 1.2% to 7,420, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.3% to roughly 26,022, and the Dow gave back close to 500 points just two days after a fresh record high. Every S&P sector finished red, with communication services and consumer discretionary leading the decline; rate-sensitive groups — homebuilders, regional banks, REITs, staples — lagged hardest. On the rates side, the 2-year Treasury yield jumped to about 4.18%, its highest level since early 2025, while the 10-year pushed toward 4.49%.

It rippled through everything else, too. The dollar index firmed to roughly 100.3. Gold slid close to 2% after a strong multi-week run. Bitcoin pulled back into the mid-$60,000s. Oil moved the opposite direction — Brent extended a five-session slide toward $78 as traders price in more barrels hitting the market once the US-Iran interim deal formally reopens the Strait of Hormuz, with signing expected Friday. Layer in a much-stronger-than-expected May retail sales report, and the setup is: resilient growth, sticky inflation, and a Fed that's no longer promising to ride to the rescue with cuts.

Technically, here's what I'm watching:

SPY — This reads as a retracement inside an intact uptrend, not a trend change. Price closed near $742 after tagging fresh highs above $760 earlier this month. The rising 50-day moving average has climbed into the $729–730 area and is the first real test if selling continues; the 200-day sits far below, near $689, so the long-term structure isn't in question. RSI has cooled out of overbought/high-neutral territory into a more balanced reading — healthy after the run, not yet a divergence flag, but worth watching if price can't reclaim $750 quickly.

QQQ — More interesting setup. Price closed around $722, sitting almost exactly on top of a rare confluence: the 50-day and 200-day moving averages have converged near $718–719 after this year's volatility compressed the gap between them. That zone is the line in the sand. Hold it, and this looks like a routine post-Fed flush within the broader advance off the spring low. Lose it on a closing basis, and it's the first real momentum warning since that rally began. Overhead resistance sits at $738–746, with the 52-week high at $748.63 the bigger prize above that.

Bottom line: a hawkish surprise, not a regime change — and price action has been orderly, sector-rotational selling rather than panic, so far. The next tell is whether dip-buyers defend the 50-day on SPY and that 50/200-day cluster on QQQ, or whether the Fed's new "no forward guidance" playbook starts pricing a volatility premium back into both names.

How are you reading the dot plot shift? A December hike feels aggressive given how much data — and how many headlines — stand between now and then.

Market commentary for discussion purposes only — not investment advice.

#FederalReserve #FOMC #StockMarket #TechnicalAnalysis #CMT #SPY #QQQ

[Derek Orth,CMT @derek121]

#finance, #stockmarket

[Derek Orth,CMT @derek121]

@BillAckman @BernieSanders @elonmusk @SpaceX Well said !! We as a nation need to break away from the victim mentality the left and democrats rely on every election.. just image if everyone lives their lives in a creative mindset.. the possibilities are endless.

[NBA @NBA]

Just before his game-winning putback to complete the Knicks' NBA Finals-record 29-point comeback... OG Anunoby delivered a CLUTCH block on the other end.

TWO-WAY IMPACT ON DISPLAY 💯

[Derek Orth,CMT @derek121]

@elonmusk It's complete authoritarianism, how about it's put on a ballot for the next vote if voter ID should be required by law? Let the registered voters have say on it. I bet it would be a landslide yes! You need ID to vote.