derek 🥂

why trade when you can gamble 🎰

[derek 🥂 @derekonstocks]

what’s worse is that unlike the railway mania & dotcom bubble, the AI spending bubble is solely based on a completely useless product.

[Hedgie @HedgieMarkets]

🦔The Bank for International Settlements warned Sunday that debt-fueled AI spending risks a global financial crisis. The BIS, the central bank for central banks, compared the boom to the dotcom bubble, the British railway mania of the 1840s, and the Roaring Twenties. Private credit funds that piled into AI data centers are already under stress, and some have blocked investor withdrawals. SpaceX shares have dropped 25% from their IPO peak. Google capped Meta's access to Gemini because it couldn't meet demand.

My Take
I've spent months on this account and walked through the numbers one company at a time. Chip makers lend money to AI labs so those labs can buy the chips. Private credit funds capped withdrawals while they deployed billions into data centers. Trillion-dollar IPOs priced themselves on revenue that doesn't exist. The BIS just said all of it in one report and compared it to three separate financial crashes.

Private credit stress is where this hits retirement accounts. These aren't public markets where you can see the losses in real time. These are opaque funds that borrowed to invest in AI infrastructure and now block withdrawals when investors try to leave. Blackstone capped withdrawals months ago. The BIS used the word "peril." When the institution that coordinates the world's central banks says the AI boom resembles the setup for a financial crisis, that's not a hedge fund manager with a short position. That's the people who have to clean it up, and they just told you they see it.

Hedgie🤗

[derek 🥂 @derekonstocks]

@jbulltard1 jesus $META hasn’t moved since 2024 lol imagine owning this trash 😂

[derek 🥂 @derekonstocks]

every american shouldn’t be guaranteed a job.

also, what the hell does taxing AI mean or do?

most, if not all, high level politicians are braindead. here’s the proof:

[Elizabeth Warren @ewarren]

If we tax AI, we can use that money to build a country that works for everyone.

Where healthcare is treated as a human right.

Where every American is guaranteed a good job.

Where education isn’t a privilege reserved for the wealthy.

That’s why I’m fighting to tax AI.

[derek 🥂 @derekonstocks]

@Mr_Derivatives type of shit chatgpt would design

[derek 🥂 @derekonstocks]

@Dr_Gingerballs @NipseyHoussle “if” 😂

[derek 🥂 @derekonstocks]

@161phi @Dcpcooks i believe libertarianism is the more extreme version of classical liberalism but its close enough lol

[derek 🥂 @derekonstocks]

these humanoids are not lasting a couple of decades, unless they are all converted to sex robots designed for goonmaxxing when women aren't accessible. though they may be expensive, who would really care in an society with 100% inflation because AI is forced into its overall economic structure

[derek 🥂 @derekonstocks]

@priyaee didn’t hear a word you said ngl

[derek 🥂 @derekonstocks]

@Dr_Gingerballs “I can’t deny AI has unlocked new capabilities for me to do my job…but it’s also adding on scope that cancels out efficiency gains”

so AI hasn’t unlocked any new capabilities to do their job…?

[derek 🥂 @derekonstocks]

@jbulltard1 sure it might be a bubble but i like money more than bubbles so 🤷🏻‍♂️

[derek 🥂 @derekonstocks]

@steve2bacon @Chartfest1 fr man this feels EXACTLY like 1999 on EVERYBODY’s soul but mine (i was born in 2005 lol)

[derek 🥂 @derekonstocks]

@hoomansv cathie wood is a truly remarkable investor

$2,600 price target on $TSLA yet consistently underperforms lol

[derek 🥂 @derekonstocks]

+32% ($1,520) i’m out

[derek 🥂 @derekonstocks]

bought a $TSLA atm june straddle let’s see if i blow up

[derek 🥂 @derekonstocks]

@DesktopPet91817 @Dr_Gingerballs who said i need to short it? i can be extremely critical while also not shorting lol

[derek 🥂 @derekonstocks]

@Dr_Gingerballs nvm it’s in the pic but yea this is amazing

[derek 🥂 @derekonstocks]

@Dr_Gingerballs lol i think a quarter of coreweave’s revenue is going straight to interest expense now this shit is truly epic

[Dr_Gingerballs @Dr_Gingerballs]

https://t.co/Wrnvetxfyc

[derek 🥂 @derekonstocks]

@Dr_Gingerballs holy shit this truly is the greatest illusion ever sold by these losers

though AI sex robots don't seem so bad. those might have a real bid

[derek 🥂 @derekonstocks]

@AnyConvo @Dr_Gingerballs not this kind nope

[derek 🥂 @derekonstocks]

AI is never the reason for reducing company headcount 100% of the time.

if it were the reason, why can't these companies actually show us? its really not a tall order.

[Brian Armstrong @brian_armstrong]

This is an email I sent earlier today to all employees at Coinbase:

Team,

Today I’ve made the difficult decision to reduce the size of Coinbase by ~14%. I want to walk you through why we're doing this now, what it means for those affected, and how this positions us for the future.

Why now
Two forces are converging at the same time. We need to be front footed to respond to both.

First, the market. Coinbase is well-capitalized, has diversified revenue streams, and is well-positioned to weather any storm. Crypto is also on the verge of the next wave of adoption, with stablecoins, prediction markets, tokenization, and more taking off. However, our business is still volatile from quarter to quarter. While we've managed through that cyclicality many times before and come out stronger on the other side, we’re currently in a down market and need to adjust our cost structure now so that we emerge from this period leaner, faster, and more efficient for our next phase of growth.

Second, AI is changing how we work. Over the past year, I’ve watched engineers use AI to ship in days what used to take a team weeks. Non-technical teams are now shipping production code and many of our workflows are being automated. The pace of what's possible with a small, focused team has changed dramatically, and it's accelerating every day.

All of this has led us to an inflection point, not just for Coinbase, but for every company. The biggest risk now is not taking action. We are adjusting early and deliberately to rebuild Coinbase to be lean, fast, and AI-native. We need to return to the speed and focus of our startup founding, with AI at our core.

What this means
To get there, we are not just reducing headcount and cutting costs, we’re fundamentally changing how we operate: rebuilding Coinbase as an intelligence, with humans around the edge aligning it. What does this mean in practice?

- Fewer layers, faster decisions: We are flattening our org structure to 5 layers max below CEO/COO. Layers slow things down and create coordination tax. The future is small, high context teams that can move quickly. Leaders will own much more, with as many as 15+ direct reports. Fewer layers also means a leaner cost structure that is built to perform through all market cycles.

- No pure managers: Every leader at Coinbase must also be a strong and active individual contributor. Managers should be like player-coaches, getting their hands dirty alongside their teams.

- AI-native pods: We’ll be concentrating around AI-native talent who can manage fleets of agents to drive outsized impact. We’ll also be experimenting with reduced pod sizes, including “one person teams” with engineers, designers, and product managers all in one role.

In short: AI is bringing a profound shift in how companies operate, and we’re reshaping Coinbase to lead in this new era. This is a new way of working, and we need to leverage AI across every facet of our jobs.

To those who are affected
I know there are real people behind these decisions — talented colleagues who have poured themselves into this company and our mission. To those of you who will be leaving: thank you. You’ve helped build Coinbase into what it is today, and I am sincerely grateful for everything you've done.

All impacted team members will receive an email to their personal account in the next hour with more information, and an invitation to meet with an HRBP and a senior leader in your organization. Coinbase system access has been removed today. I know this feels sudden and harsh, but it is the only responsible choice given our duty to protect customer information.

To those affected, we will be providing a comprehensive package to support you through this transition. US employees will receive a minimum of 16 weeks base pay (plus 2 weeks per year worked), their next equity vest, and 6 months of COBRA. Employees on a work visa will get extra transition support. Those outside of the US will receive similar support, based on local factors and subject to any consultation requirements.

Coinbase prides itself on talent density. Our employees are among the most talented people in the world, and I have no doubt that your skills and experience will be highly sought after as you pursue your next chapters.

How we move forward
To the team that is staying, I know this is a difficult day. We’re saying goodbye to colleagues and friends you've been in the trenches with. But here’s what I want you to know as we move forward together:

Over the past 13 years, we have weathered four crypto winters, gone public, and built the most trusted platform in our industry. We’ve made it this far by making hard decisions and by always staying focused on our mission. This time will be no different – nothing has changed about the long term outlook of our company or industry. And most importantly, our mission has never been more important for the world. Increasing economic freedom requires a new financial system, and we’re building it.

The Coinbase that emerges from this will be more capable than ever to achieve our mission.

Brian