deri

There's an argument so logical sounding that almost nobody checks it against numbers. Halving cuts new supply in half, scarcity follows, price goes up. Alright. Let's put the scale in. After the 2024 halving miners produce roughly 450 BTC a day. Call it 164,000 coins over a full year. Daily exchange volume in bitcoin runs in the hundreds of thousands of BTC. The market turns over more coins in a single day than mining produces in a year. Halving a fraction of a percent doesn't create scarcity. It isn't even visible against the flow it's happening inside. Closer to shutting one tap in your house and waiting for the river to drop. Price comes from the 19 million plus coins already out there and whatever their holders decide to do. New issuance is noise. The argument holds up perfectly until numbers enter it, which is probably why they usually don't.

$dericrpt's tweet photo. There's an argument so logical sounding that almost nobody checks it against numbers. Halving cuts new supply in half, scarcity follows, price goes up. Alright. Let's put the scale in. After the 2024 halving miners produce roughly 450 BTC a day. Call it 164,000 coins over a full year. Daily exchange volume in bitcoin runs in the hundreds of thousands of BTC. The market turns over more coins in a single day than mining produces in a year. Halving a fraction of a percent doesn't create scarcity. It isn't even visible against the flow it's happening inside. Closer to shutting one tap in your house and waiting for the river to drop. Price comes from the 19 million plus coins already out there and whatever their holders decide to do. New issuance is noise. The argument holds up perfectly until numbers enter it, which is probably why they usually don't.$