Derik

CMO at @autobooks_ | Formerly Product @BannoJHA & @CSIsolutions. |

[Derik @deriksutton]

@DX_DPayne Done.

[Derik @deriksutton]

I get the beloved teammate thing. There is value there. I’m fine with his inclusion if that’s the case because the likelihood he, or any back end roster selections, see game time is very small.

It’s a shame, but US Soccer has become more about bitching about things than it is about support of the team.

We’re like Temu England.

[James E. Thorne @DrJStrategy]

Let’s be honest.

Warsh at the Fed.

Kevin Warsh’s arrival at the Federal Reserve is not a personnel change. It is a regime change attempt inside an institution built to prevent one. A supply-sider now runs a central bank hard-wired for Keynesian demand management, and the machine is already resisting the new code.

The next mistake is visible in plain sight. Keynesians on Wall Street and inside the Fed are treating a supply shock as if it were a demand boom and calling for tighter money. This is dogma masquerading as seriousness. A chokepoint in the Strait of Hormuz, a jump in energy prices, and a cost shock rolling through transport, food, and manufacturing are not evidence of overheated demand. They are evidence of a damaged supply side.

Monetary policy cannot reopen a shipping lane. It cannot pump more oil. It cannot repeal geopolitics. It can only crush demand somewhere else, usually with a lag, and usually in the most interest-rate-sensitive corners of the economy first, housing, commercial real estate, capital spending, and durables. Those sectors did not close the Strait. They are simply first in line to pay for the Fed’s intellectual mistakes.

That is the Keynesian reflex in its purest form. Every price spike becomes “inflation.” Every inflation scare requires a rate move. Every rate move is advertised as proof of resolve. It is nonsense. A change in relative prices caused by a supply shock is not the same thing as an inflationary spiral. Pretending otherwise is how central banks turn an external shock into a domestic recession.

Machiavelli explained why change is so hard. The innovator makes enemies of everyone who did well under the old order and wins only lukewarm defenders among those who might benefit from the new. Christensen gave the same warning in corporate language. Incumbent institutions kill disruptive change because their processes, incentives, and prestige are built around the existing model.

That is the real problem Warsh faces. The resistance is not incidental. It is structural.

The test for Warsh is not whether he can sound tough on television. It is whether he can resist the Wall Street catechism that every supply shock must be met with tighter money. If he hikes rates into a supply-driven price spike to prove his anti-inflation credentials, he will not have broken with the Keynesian regime. He will have submitted to it.

This is not the 1970s. Expectations are not unanchored, and the productive economy is already scarred by years of policy excess, fiscal decadence, and institutional bias.

The hope is that Warsh understands the difference between inflation and a supply shock, ignores the Keynesian pundits, and refuses to compound one policy error with another.

[Derik @deriksutton]

@peet2 HA

[Derik @deriksutton]

@ChampionsA13751 And to a lesser extent, similar impact on Cem Karsan as well.

[Derik @deriksutton]

@fejau_inc First one that falls asleep gets a sharpie mustache.

[Derik @deriksutton]

@ramahluwalia Euphoric local top -> sell off -> sidelined get involved for next leg.

[Derik @deriksutton]

@alphacharts365 @ppearlman Curious. What portion of your long term portfolio would you invest in a product like this? I would reinvest all dividends as well for the next 5+ years.

[Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 @pmarca]

It wasn’t AI, it was the COVID hiring binge + interest rate spike hangover.

[Derik @deriksutton]

@ChampionsA13751 Went into the week thinking I was going to short SNDK to hedge longs. Glad I did not pull that trigger.

[Derik @deriksutton]

@ramahluwalia You should also look at JHKY.

[Jesse Livermore @Jesse_Livermore]

Elizabeth Warren has $12,000,000.

If she paid *HER OWN* wealth tax this year, she could help fund the same projects that she wants Jeff Bezos to fund.

... And she would still have $11,700,000 to spare.

Why, then, did she exempt her own wealth from the legislation? 🤔

[Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 @pmarca]

The "AI job loss" narratives are all fake. AI = massive ramp in productivity = massive ramp in demand = massive jobs boom. Watch.

[Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 @pmarca]

I have never been so bullish on the United States of America.

[Jason Romano @JasonRomano]

“The man on the middle cross said I could come.”

Easter week. Watch it. And watch it again. And then chase after Jesus.

[Derik @deriksutton]

@peet2 Insane they don’t bring both jerseys to venue.

[Derik @deriksutton]

@ChampionsA13751 Yeah. But how do you express that? Just as a thought exercise.