Derrick Gich

Global Macro ¦ Multi-Asset ¦ Technicals ¦ ¦

Be mindful of this pale blue dot 🌍

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

US SHOCKS WITH 23,000 JOB LOSSES IN JULY

The US economy unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs in July, far below forecasts for an 83,000 gain.

June’s increase was also revised down to just 20,000 jobs.

Despite the weakness, unemployment unexpectedly fell from 4.2% to 4.1%.

The disappointing report raises fresh concerns about the labor market and could complicate the Federal Reserve’s rate decisions as policymakers balance weaker employment against persistent inflation.

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

Good time to remember that a lower quarter for the S&P 500 followed by a 10% gain (like we saw in Q1 and Q2 this year) has been quite bullish going forward.

The next quarter (so in this case Q3 '26) has been higher 16 out of 17 times. That's a slingshot.

[Barchart @Barchart]

S&P 500 $SPX has reached its cheapest valuation relative to the rest of the world in 6 years 📈 🥳 🤑

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

August and September are historically the worst two months of the year.

Did we get the usual midterm year volatility early this time though with the July momo crash?

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

Zero stocks in the S&P 500 made a new 52-week low yesterday. Hard to have that bear market we keep hearing about when stocks aren't going blower.

[Jim Bianco @biancoresearch]

The $SPX is at a new all-time high.

In the last 100 years, there's never been a recession in the month that the $SPX is at a new all-time high.

This signals the economy is fine, meaning inflation and higher rates should be the concern.

[Santiago Capital @SantiagoAuFund]

@NKozev @leadlagreport The market will eventually win.
It always does.
The only thing that matters is getting the timing right.
Could be tomorrow.
Could be decades.
Place your bets.
No Tears.

[Let’s Discover Travel @letsDiscoverke]

The all new & beautiful Mapito Safari Camp, Serengeti- Marriott’s first Autograph Collection in Tanzania.

[TrendSpider @TrendSpider]

Wow...

Microsoft $MSFT is now officially trading at a cheaper valuation than at any point during Covid or the 2022/23 bear market... 🌶️

[Mark Newton CMT @MarkNewtonCMT]

Despite $QQQ having broken June and July lows, we saw healthy gains in sectors like Healthcare, Financials, Utilities and Industrials ($XLI shown here)

Many parts of Aero/Defense starting to rebound along w/ many Transportation names w DJT minor breakout back in mid-July

This broad-based recovery in many sectors is actually quite healthy during a time when many are starting to turn more bearish ahead of Hyperscaler earnings. hmm

@IBDinvestors @marketsurge #IBDPartner

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

OUCH! European gas futures keep surging as the Middle East war widens; up 50% in just one month. Europe’s energy-risk premium is back with a vengeance.

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

Good Morning from Germany, where the economy is showing a pulse again. Private-sector activity unexpectedly returned to growth in July: Composite PMI jumped to 51.2 vs 49.7 exp, led by manufacturing at 52.2. Services improved to 49.6, but higher energy prices threaten the rebound

[Claus Vistesen @ClausVistesen]

Final thought from me: If you really think CBs are wrong here, you are currently looking at one of the juiciest front-end trades ever. You can literally receive anywhere from 50-to-150bp in front-end futures over the next 12 months if you think DM CBs don't hike/and or cut next year! That's retirement money!

[Kevin Gordon @KevRGordon]

Convergence between manufacturing and services activity continues, with the S&P Global US Services PMI picking up to 53.6 and Manufacturing moving down to 53.8 in July

[Sonali Basak @sonalibasak]

INTEREST RATE WATCH: The 10-year is flirting with 4.7% — slowly approaching the top end of my estimated range for the year and breaking out of the 4.4-4.6% range it’s been in for the past few months. We have broken past the highs for the past 12 months. Especially if we go higher, this begins to really impact risk appetite.

[Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity]

The US financials don’t look too shabby either, with a payout ratio of 84% and a cash yield of 5%.

[Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity]

I still like the Eurozone banks as a good place to hide if it turns out that the era of beta over-harvesting comes to an end. The “tree” chart below shows that while the AI space has given back some of its gains, the EZ banks continue to hold onto theirs.

That tells me there is not much fast money in that space. And the euro banks have a cash yield of 7.2% and a payout ratio of 88%, which makes them almost like a pass-through asset.

[Kevin Gordon @KevRGordon]

Some marginal easing for the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index in July but nothing too worrisome. All major components in expansion, prices paid eased, prices received also less hot ... employment not nearly as strong as June but still expanding

via Bloomberg

[Evan @StockMKTNewz]

Q2 2026 earnings for the big five US banks

- Goldman Sachs $GS: profit +78%, stock +9.00%
- Citi $C: profit +45%, stock -5.29%
- JPMorgan $JPM: profit +41%, stock +2.50%
- Bank of America $BAC: profit +27%, stock +1.88%
- Wells Fargo $WFC: profit +17%, stock -2.71%

Credit to my partners at Themes for the graphic

[ISABELNET @ISABELNET_SA]

🇺🇸 S&P 500

Goldman Sachs still sees steady earnings growth pushing the S&P 500 up 17% to 8,000 in 2026, even if the ride stays bumpy
👉 https://t.co/yIk7SZYp6p

@GoldmanSachs $spx #spx #sp500 #stocks #equity