Deus

The only thing you can control is the amount you lose. 📉

[Charlie @btc_charlie]

GM

Happy Santa rally.

[Fred Wick @FredWick7]

That ETH yearly candle. Just wow.

[Rhino @lBattleRhino]

Make it back immediately derangement syndrome is going to get so many people fucked

It basically goes up only for years cuz mostly bull market for the skilled, you give some back at the end especially post 10/10 for many. But you don’t see how much you’re up since the cycle began, you only tether to your peak nw and chase that

But the opportunities in the market do not justify pushing in the same way as you did early bull, so you force more and more suboptimal trades chasing your absolute peak

And then you end up giga fucked and tilted then explode

Common pathing for ppl wondering how we always watch ppl go from did giga well for years into explosion (far more common than ppl think btw)

[💐Guru 💐 @CoinGurruu]

I’m still here because I have to be

This crypto cycle has been dragged out beyond belief. Everyone’s just waiting for BTC to finally move so they can squeeze 30% out of some illiquid half dead altcoin bag

And honestly, in the back of everyone’s mind (mine included), we kind of just want this cycle to be over already

Nothing feels fun anymore. Nobody believes in anything. Dreams got crushed by extractors and insiders, and if you’re not part of that little inner circle, you barely been able to keep up

What used to be exciting has turned into a chore. The only reasons anyone’s still here are 1) You didn’t make enough 2) You bought into the bullshit and drank the juice, 3) You spend money like a lunatic and need the next run to catch up on your bills

I’m not trying to be a downer, but after 9 years of this the vibe is completely different now.
Group chats are dead, energy is at all time lows, and everyone’s just hanging in there

Sure, there are still pockets of hot money where you can make decent returns, but if you miss those tiny windows you’re sitting on your hands for months. We’ve burned through most of the narratives already and a huge chunk of altcoin liquidity has moved into stocks, where the rug risk is basically zero and you can actually sleep at night

BTC will trade higher eventually, no doubt about that but holy shit this place is miserable right now

Love you all and see you soon

[Aporia @0xaporia]

I can totally relate to this, it's exactly what I did when I started. When you start out, you're naturally drawn to indicators, patterns, etc. But here's the problem: you're starting with what you're seeing, not with the rationale behind what you're doing. You're building from the wrong foundation.

In my opinion, the key is taking one step backwards and asking: what kind of market behavior am I actually trying to capture? The most straightforward approaches are trend following and mean reversion, but it could be anything. Once you've identified the behavior you want to capture, then you can ask which data/indicators might help you quantify or detect it.

This flips the usual approach: instead of "this indicator looks interesting, let me trade it," you're saying "I'm looking for momentum, so which tools help me measure that?" This naturally leads you to understand why an indicator might work, not just how to use it. The final piece is then trying to figure out whether the conditions you define to capture that behavior actually translate into profitable outcomes.

[MomoCrypto @MomoOnChain]

Not relevant to anyone else but been around long enough that I think I get to sign off.

I’ve become excessively bearish in crypto in the last 3 months and doesn’t make sense to stick around if I believe the easy money is done and there’s greener pastures elsewhere (I hope I’m wrong!)

Managed to successfully cash out my 2021 cycle ATH in this cycle (just less than 8 figs after tax). Started the current cycle in a position of debt (2021 tax bills) with 0 capital, depression and having lost my job. Never kys!

Didn’t hit TRUMP. Lost probably 10m+ on dumbass trades in the last few months including $3m+ during 10/10 crash on a Launchcoin long of all things.

Did hit ASTER. Did hit probably 20-30 6 fig trenches wins. Ran an account from $20k to $1m in the last month to prove to myself I could after the wipeout.

Spent 16+ hours daily locked in for the last 2+ years straight while working a 9-5 throughout (never believed the figures on screen were real). Been obsessing over this space for 8 years. Time to step back and smell the roses.

This account will be entering hibernation until I come back to bid DAT selloff bottom or become suddenly optimistic. If it doesn’t happen, was a good run bros and I appreciate everyone who has helped me along the way (Den, Village, cheats group and others) . Will still be reachable on tg if you’re someone I traded with if you need to reach out.

[Cobie @cobie]

Lots of the good alt trades I took in the last two years were previously super “hyped” things that got crazy over-valued at launch due to the hype. Requires patience to buy something you think is a good idea at valuation you are happy with, rather than trying to be “early” to the asset.

Several variations of this same pattern happening relatively regularly:

[フ ォ リ ス (🇸🇬) @follis_]

- Rate cuts
- QT coming to an end
- Successful Trump / Xi meeting

Meanwhile $BTC dumps and alts make new local lows

I’m tired boss

[JACKIS @i_am_jackis]

Alts have been in a bear trend since March 24. That is nearly 600 days, which is nearly 2 years.

Some have been in a downtrend since November 2021. That is 1500 days

Some might've done a deviation high in November 24 but this has been the theme for most

There has been some great rotations through this time but if you were to erase the small time window of Oct 23 till March 24, then it's been a depression for most crypto holders since the last cycle

Calling for a cycle top here makes no sense because after the past 600 days of the bear trend for most of these, you are nearing the time window of the Oct 23-March 24 upside comparing to the prior cycle

However important to realize that lots of crypto will never be coming back, which is likely a good thing, as the narrative of the space shifted from cryptography & decentralization to revenue generating digital assets. Being picky here will be detrimental

People often get caught up in the recency bias and forget to see the bigger picture. The forest. Look at China stocks recently, been in a bear since 21. Everyone hated on it, despite the positive revenues. I discussed that, we bought them at the lows & now the prices are catching up on the fundamentals & TA

This space will imo soon flourish & people will believe again

Forest > Trees

[IncomeSharks @IncomeSharks]

4th Sunday pump in a row that's retraced. All while the S&P 500 made another all time high...

[DJ.en @thisisdjen]

If I had $500 in crypto right now, here’s exactly what I’d do to turn it into 6 figures:

#1 Get income first.

Crypto is volatile. A steady paycheck = freedom to take asymmetric bets.

Get a remote job (so you can stay plugged into the ecosystem).

Like i am hiring awesome post writers for my casino, i look at people who can really educate people and be relatable.

#2 Pay for X Premium.
You’re not buying a blue tick, you’re buying the reach.
Start posting in CT (Crypto Twitter).
Your audience = your moat.

#3 Join a community that you like.
Example $uranus, $tokabu, $troll etc. Write about why people should buy, be involved with the communities. DON'T SPAM. New projects get you more people but they usually are low quality audience sadly.

#4 No low-effort content. Focus on a few pre-TGE projects.

Focus on:

Fresh narratives (X402, infra, L3s, prediction markets)
Smart replies that earn follows from builders and other people.

Make a watchlist and write good posts about them. Teaching people what it is.
→ Casinos
→ prediction markets

Research and tell people what they should really look for...

#5 Stay consistent for 6 months.

There will be people asking you for threads, you can see many brands like luckio gave away 5-100k+ to people when they launched. You can bag these deals easily.

This is the grind phase. You’re also building a real on-chain footprint + personal brand.

Due to kiato etc, All it takes is one big airdrop (LayerZero, Eigenlayer, Base, zkSync, etc.) to 10x your stack.

If you can gain influence due to your content, you can really make a lot more than 5k per month. Depends tho.

#6 Optional: start contributing.
→ Join project Discords.
→ Write content, test products, give feedback.
Projects love active users. That’s how you get early access, referrals, and advisor gigs.

#7 Remember:
Crypto wealth = asymmetric upside + reputation compounding.

If you keep showing up, you’ll have deal flow, whitelist access, and network leverage that money alone can’t buy.

Play the long game. Build Influence and trust.

[𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂 @TXMCtrades]

Everything about this cycle is different. In ZERO prior BTC runs did altcoins bleed this hard against it after a new all-time high. They tended to run alongside BTC until the peak, then mooned even harder. Their current position is not one from which retail suddenly gets interested, piles in and sends them to the stratosphere without a brand new paradigm changing catalyst. Dispersion, grift, lack of utility, higher interest rates, and being four years removed from a GFC level lending collapse in the space have combined to make this a blood moon for cryptos outside the top 5 or 6. Not even the first crypto president has been able to change this.

[Charlie @btc_charlie]

May I present to you... Uptober

[filbfilb @filbfilb]

BTCUSD - Its been a while but ill chip in with my current view of it.

Trend-wise, BTC remains within its weekly trend, above major weekly MAs, currently being rejected by the 50 DMA.

Notably, the 50 wma (typically bull/bear line in the sand) sits precariously around the ST.

[𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂 @TXMCtrades]

This is actually what we did today LOLOL

5% move both ways in half a day

Amazing

[Bill Printer @printxbt]

Fascinating month for global markets.
Let’s review the forward guidance from the Oval Office, October 2025:

Week 1 (1 – 5)
1: I’LL BE MEETING WITH PRESIDENT XI IN 4 WEEKS
2: CURRENT CHINA TRADE TRUCE EXPIRES NOV 10

Week 2 (6 – 12)
7: WILL MEET XI IN A FEW WEEKS IN KOREA
9: MAYBE WE WILL HAVE TO STOP IMPORTING MASSIVE AMOUNTS FROM CHINA
10: WAS SET TO MEET XI IN TWO WEEKS BUT NOW SEEMS NO REASON TO
10: HAVEN’T CANCELED XI MEETING
10: MIGHT STILL HAVE XI MEETING
10: WILL BE FORCED TO FINANCIALLY COUNTER CHINA’S MOVE
10: MANY COUNTERMEASURES UNDER CONSIDERATION ON CHINA
10: DON’T KNOW IF WILL MEET XI
10: UNITED STATES OF AMERICA WILL IMPOSE A TARIFF OF 100% ON CHINA, OVER AND ABOVE ANY TARIFF THAT THEY ARE CURRENTLY PAYING
10: US TO IMPOSE EXPORT CURBS ON CRITICAL SOFTWARE TO CHINA
11: CHINA: NOT AFRAID OF TRADE WAR WITH US
12: DON’T WORRY ABOUT CHINA, IT WILL ALL BE FINE
12: XI IS A SMART MAN AND A GREAT LEADER
12: I THINK WE’LL GET IT
12: NOV 1 DEADLINE FOR CHINA TARIFFS IS AN “ETERNITY”

Week 3 (13 – 19)
13: CHINA VOWS TO FIGHT TRADE WAR “TO THE END”
14: GREAT RELATIONSHIP WITH XI, SOMETIMES IT GETS TESTY
14: WE HAVE TO BE CAREFUL WITH CHINA
15: TRUMP IS STILL EXPECTING TO MEET WITH XI IN KOREA
15: NOW NEED TO GET CHINA TO STOP BUYING RUSSIAN OIL
15: WE’RE IN A TRADE WAR WITH CHINA
17: MEETING WITH XI IN TWO WEEKS
17: TRUMP, ASKED IF HIGH CHINA TARIFFS WILL STAND: NO
17: CHINA WANTS TO TALK, WE LIKE TALKING TO CHINA
17: GETTING ALONG WITH CHINA
17: THINK WE ARE IN STRONG POSITION IN CHINA TRADE TALKS
17: COULD MOVE CHINA NOV 1 DEADLINE UP IF I WANTED
19: NOT LOOKING TO DESTROY CHINA

Week 4 (20 – 21)
20: MEETING WITH XI IN SOUTH KOREA
20: CHINA MAY PAY 155% TARIFF IF NO DEAL BY NOV 1
20: MEETING WITH XI IN A COUPLE WEEKS
20: WE’LL END UP WITH STRONG TRADE DEAL WITH CHINA
20: I LOVE MY RELATIONSHIP WITH XI
20: I THINK CHINA WILL COME TO TABLE BECAUSE OF TARIFFS
20: COULD THREATEN CHINA ON OTHER THINGS, INCLUDING AIRPLANES
20: WANT CHINA TO BUY SOYBEANS
21: WILL SEE PRESIDENT XI IN TWO WEEKS
21: EXPECT TO MAKE GOOD DEAL WITH XI
21: MAYBE XI MEETING WON’T HAPPEN
21: AS OF NOV 1, TARIFFS ON CHINA WILL BE ABOUT 155%. HIGHER TARIFFS WON’T BE SUSTAINABLE FOR THEM

Every week a new market cycle.
Every headline a pivot.

Algos in therapy.
Economists in shambles.
Models in tears.

GL trading improv.

[MONK @defi_monk]

https://t.co/m9ojr5r0wh

[Cobie @cobie]

When ppl claim this I always wonder how they think it happens, or have unrealistic expectations on how much $1bn actually is.

I joined crypto with $200. If I held my initial bitcoin since then and never traded, I would have ~$300k.

If, instead, from that moment I sold the top and bought the bottom of every crypto cycle on Bitcoin, and never paid any taxes, I would have ~$6m USD.

If I put my entire net worth into the Ethereum ICO and never touched it, today I would have ~$150m pre-tax.

While it was definitely possible to have made >$1bn with the opportunities in the market, these versions of reality would also require me to make no mistakes, and have no need to spend $ in real life, or take excessive risk via leverage.

In reality, I grew up in a working class family. I didn’t have a trust fund and I had to pay off my student loan myself. I had a job at Tescos while at high school. After university, I needed to pay rent and fund cost of living and eventually buy a place to live.

I worked at startups for relatively little $ salary, and while a couple have done okay, they still are illiquid and worth nothing until some exit.

Perhaps if I erase a couple of dumb mistakes and drawdowns, or if I had a lil more grind, then my answer would be different today. But it is easy to say this with perfect hindsight vision. It’s easy to see where you could have optimised better, and decisions you made look dumb when the past makes things so obvious.

The truth is I have always optimised for enjoying my life and not going to 0. I never felt like I had a safety net, so it was never possible for me to do anything in any other way. I would probably have less money if I had tried to add more risk or chased $ harder, because being all-in with your entire livelihood is a mental battle and I feel I only win that battle when the stakes are lower.

In writing this, maybe I do understand why CT folks believe this, because modern CT sees crypto as a late-stage lottery ticket farm, where the optimal strategy is to 5x leverage up your portfolio in a hope of catching a good 20% move and then leaving. Or, literally going all-in on the next coin they heard Ansem is buying. So perhaps to them, looking back at the charts, of course that’s what successful folks did.

In reality, I use leverage close to never (and typically to reduce risk rather than add risk — have used it to add risk maybe 3 times in the last 5 years, and maybe 15 times ever). I never go all-in on anything, have only ever done that on BTC and ETH before in the last decade. When I buy other things, I limit risk to tiny amounts, because I treat it as a 0 until proven otherwise (so, always <1% liquid portfolio). Liquid portfolio is also a smaller % of overall portfolio to future-proof against my own fuckups.

Obviously I made a lot of money, I have been here 12 years! CT doesn’t want to hear about “getting rich in a decade” though. I am happy with where I am and have never really cared or optimised for maximising $ earnings, but instead having a nice life that lets me enjoy the game we play together.

[Mello @mellometrics]

https://t.co/1TtaidD4Gw

[:) @smileycapital]

"worst cycle ever, no true altszn" - story about fragmented liquidity, Solana trenchers and human greed;

you wanted faster execution, lower fees and fun experience - Solana brought that to the table, giving birth to the first efficient onchain 'coin-sino', whilst also kick-starting the dispersion issue. that's okay, as 'slow and expensive' ETH has moved away towards institutional yield, SoV and RWA layer. I'm sure a little dispersion never hurt anybody, especially if we can all make more money.

you weren't satisfied.

you wanted even earlier & faster entries, more memetics, more toys you play with for a day and discard them like street prostitutes - Pumpfun gave you exactly that. dilution quickly went from "bad" to "what the fuck". you started aping coins mere seconds after launch. "this could run". run? where? unemployment center?

have we had enough? not even close.

you developed bots, scripts, trackers, AI tools to increase efficiency, speed and execution - at what cost? more freedom to ape into more coins. more incentives for serial ruggers, I mean devs, sorry, to automate coin launches at the expense of ~99%.

please daddy, fragment the liquidity even further!

suffice to say, whilst damaging crypto for years to come, barely anyone has turned profit. "Data from Dune reveals that 99.6% of https://t.co/zD0GsQ6GeV traders have yet to achieve more than $10,000 in realized profits."

pathetic. you've shot yourself in the foot. quite literally.

as if the situation wasn't dire enough, this all brought the attention of outsiders. B-tier celebrities all scrambled to launch their own token, only to extract even more from already damaged participants.

then it all broke in January 2025. Trump. Melania. final nail in the coffin. they've heard the lengths of which you absolute fucking degenerates will go to just to turn profit. they launched their own token, mere days before inauguration. literal crime. whilst you hear many stories of people acquiring generational wealth, you forget this is a zero-sum game. who was on the other side of those trades?

while everyone screamed "this surely sparks the beginning of Solana casino!" - euthanasia rollercoaster officially began. that was it. no, really , statistically that was the top of trenches. slow erosion begins.

desperate, clinging onto hopes and dreams of "just one 100x", most failed to realize the game has always been rigged against their favor. you have better odds in an actual casino. no, really, you statistically do.

9 months later, as participants have [somewhat] awoken themselves from the false dream, everything that's left on the rollercoaster today are 'metas'. we went from thousands of coins/day, to once a month metas that saturate faster than Gainzy can press the sell button to dump on his followers.

what are we left with? streamer coins? capital markets? 1.) What

.. the fuck is even that?

and whilst many would consider such a post, or even sentiment to be a "bottom signal" [lol, lmao even], they forget what awaits at the end of euthanasia rollercoaster - "The Euthanasia Coaster is a hypothetical steel roller coaster and euthanasia device designed with the sole purpose of killing its passengers".

only death can pay for life.

only after dying are we truly free.

rebirth.

this won't change until regulations tighten up the space - allowing money to concentrate, instead of dilute.

it will take years for the cleanse.