Ahmet Can Devecier

[The Macro Paper @macropaperr]

🚨 FRANCE IS STARTING TO LOOK LIKE THE NEXT MAJOR CRISIS IN EUROPE.

And it is not just about politics.

France is now getting hit by a bond selloff, exploding borrowing costs, fuel shortages, violent protests and foreign investors pulling money out.

France’s 10-year yield briefly touched 5%, its highest level since 2002.

The spread over German bonds has exploded toward 150 basis points, levels not seen since the eurozone debt crisis.

France’s 5-year CDS has also surged from around 34 bps in early September to almost 80 bps.

That is more than a 130% increase in less than a month.

And the fiscal numbers explain why investors are nervous.

France is carrying roughly €3.5 TRILLION of government debt.

The European Commission expects debt to hit 118.1% of GDP this year and exceed 120% next year, while the deficit remains around 5% of GDP.

Now comes the dangerous part.

Foreign investors own more than half of France’s government debt.

So France needs global investors to keep buying enormous amounts of bonds while confidence in its finances is deteriorating.

And one major Japanese investor just walked away.

Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management sold its entire position in French government bonds, moving the money primarily into German Bunds and some short term Japanese government debt.

Not trimmed.

Exited completely.

The fund specifically cited concerns about France’s fiscal situation.

Japan matters because rising Japanese yields are changing the equation for investors who spent years searching overseas for better returns.

Once currency hedging is included, French bonds now offer Japanese investors an effective yield of roughly 3.3%, around the same as domestic Japanese government bonds.

Why take French political and fiscal risk when yields back home are becoming competitive?

And France’s problems don't stop with bonds.

Fuel supply is under pressure again.

As of October 4, 12% of French fuel stations were experiencing shortages of at least one type of petrol or diesel, with the figure reaching 20% in Grand Est and 18% in Pays de la Loire.

Then there is the unrest.

Student protests have spread across France and turned increasingly violent.

Around 5,000 people have been arrested in a week.

More than 600 police officers have been injured.

Schools have been attacked, riot police have clashed with protesters, and the Paris police chief now describes the movement as “out of control.”

At the same time, public sector strikes are pushing back against government budget cuts.

So look at what is happening simultaneously:

10Y yield: highest since 2002.
France-Germany spread: near euro-crisis levels.
CDS: more than doubled in a month.
Debt: roughly €3.5 trillion.
Foreign bondholders: more than 50%.
Japanese money: beginning to pull back.
Fuel shortages: hitting parts of the country.
Protests: thousands arrested.
Budget: tens of billions in savings being demanded.

And ratings agencies are watching.

Moody’s still has France at Aa3 with a negative outlook, with its next rating decision scheduled for October 23.

This is what makes the situation dangerous.

France has to convince investors to keep financing one of the largest sovereign debt markets in Europe while borrowing costs rise, debt keeps growing and political pressure makes spending cuts harder to deliver.

If foreign demand weakens further, France may have to offer even higher yields to attract buyers.

Higher yields mean higher interest costs.

Higher interest costs make the deficit harder to control.

And a harder to control deficit can push investors to demand even higher yields.

That is the feedback loop France cannot afford to let start feeding on itself.

[Politics UK @PolitlcsUK]

🚨 NEW: Oxford Street will officially be pedestrianised from Monday 26 October

[Ahmet Can Devecier @Devecier]

@bbsubzero What’s wrong with that:)

[Ahmet Can Devecier @Devecier]

That’s a classy approach which we’ve never seen in our media

[CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ @CBSSportsGolazo]

Fenerbahçe’s President has come out in support of Head Coach İsmail Kartal after he resigned abruptly during his post match press conference.

@_poppymiller breaks down the story emerging from Türkiye after their draw vs. Roma 🤯

[Fenerbahçe SK @Fenerbahce]

IT’S ALIVE. ⚡️

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: President Trump posts a screenshot of our August 11th post regarding his reported capital gains tax cut discussions, including "indexing" capital gains for inflation before taxes are calculated.

It appears President Trump is actively considering capital gains tax cuts.

[Ahmet Can Devecier @Devecier]

@ProfDemirtas lol aboneniz mi? Zaten bahsedilen seylere katilmak icin biraz iktisat biraz da global gelismeleri takip etmek yetiyor.

[433 @433]

Sad news from Italy 💔

Legendary Italian defender and Milan legend Franco Baresi has passed away aged 66, the Milanese club confirm.

Baresi was the heartbeat of Milan’s team winning multiple Scudetti and European Cups/Champions Leagues, as well as winning the World Cup with Italy in 1982 🏆

Rest in peace, Franco 🕊️

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Absolutely incredible.

In an unprecedented move, South Korea's stock market just collapsed -44% in 40 days, erasing -$2 trillion in market cap.

Now, South Korea's finance ministry has announced plans to "stabilize" the market.

What is happening? Let us explain.

(a thread)

[Lukas Fuhrmann - KryptoEDGE @kryptoedgeyt]

Schau dir diese Grafik genau an. Sie erklärt, warum sich in Deutschland Leistung nicht mehr lohnt.

Ein Paar, zwei Kinder, beide arbeiten.

Bei 4.000 Euro brutto bleiben rund 2.700 Euro.

Bei 5.000 Euro brutto bleiben rund 2.650 Euro.

Du liest richtig. Tausend Euro mehr verdient. Weniger im Portemonnaie.

Und jetzt der Teil, der wirklich weh tut: Bei 2.000 Euro brutto stehen dieser Familie etwa 2.350 Euro zur Verfügung.

Bei 5.000 Euro brutto sind es 2.650 Euro.

3.000 Euro mehr erarbeiten. 300 Euro mehr haben.

Das ist kein Rechenfehler. Jeder zusätzlich verdiente Euro zieht Wohngeld, Kinderzuschlag und Freibeträge mit sich in den Abgrund, während Steuern und Sozialabgaben gleichzeitig steigen.

Man nennt es Transferentzugsrate. Ökonomen kennen das Problem seit Jahren. Die Bundesregierung hat Gutachten dazu bestellt.

Passiert ist nichts.

Und dann wundert sich die Politik, warum niemand mehr die Stunden aufstockt. Warum die Zweitverdienerin in Teilzeit bleibt. Warum der Facharbeiter die Beförderung ablehnt.

Die Leute sind nicht faul. Sie rechnen.

Ein System, das Anstrengung und Fleiß nicht belohnt, bekommt am Ende genau das: keine Anstrengung.

[Ahmet Can Devecier @Devecier]

Meanwhile, the Europe is roasting and limiting the AC usage due to the climate concern.

[Turkic Archives @TurkishArc]

Adana hits 113°F in summer.

They built a dessert stand to honor the American who invented the air conditioner.

May he rest in the coldest corner of heaven.

[Jacob King @JacobKinge]

JUST IN: Rosen Law Firm has announced a massive investigation into Michael Saylor’s Strategy concerning securities law violations and whether investors were misled about Bitcoin.

[Ahmet Can Devecier @Devecier]

Veni vidi vici! #YellowLegacy

[Yellow @YellowTheCanary]

Yellow Mode: Champions. 🏆💛💙 Season complete. Mission accomplished. Champions once again.

#Yellow @FBBasketbol

[Ahmet Can Devecier @Devecier]

Hard to read without tears. Such heartbreaking letter by Diomande!

[The Touchline | 𝐓 @TouchlineX]

🚨🤍 𝗡𝗘𝗪: Yan Diomande emotional letter to his late sister:

"Dear Roxane,

Remember when somebody bought me a fake United jersey, and I wrote Ronaldo 7 on the back with the black marker?"

"We didn’t know rich or poor. We just knew happiness."

"Remember 25 people sleeping in one house back in Abidjan? Mum wanted to watch her soap operas. Everyone else wanted to watch movies. Remember how I always used to fake like I was asleep and then go into the TV room after midnight? I’d put the TV on real low. Just like 2 volume bars. I’d watch football in the dark and dream."

"Remember when the adults saw me playing football in the dirt and nicknamed me “Roberto Carlos” because of how hard I would shoot? And remember how I was secretly so mad about it, because CR7 was my idol?"

"Remember when I went to play so far from home? I was 9 years old. Inter Foot Sud Comoé, all the way near the Ghana border. Just a little boy on his own. I don’t know if I ever told you this story, but me and the other kids used to go into the village and steal potatoes because we were so hungry. We did a “bank heist.” Two kids distracting the shop owner, and 18 other kids running out with two potatoes. They weren’t even good. But they tasted amazing. Hahahah. It’s still my favorite thing to eat. Boiled potatoes with some oil. It reminds me of those times."

"Remember when I got my first real football boots, and I used to sleep with them? Growing up, I always played in those white plastic sandals. Even when I go back home now, I still play in them. It’s our tradition."

"Remember when I would come back home, and you would tell my friends from the neighborhood, “Why did you stop training? Yan is not going to buy you cars. You have to keep working."

"You were 10 years old, and already my agent."

"Remember how we used to sit and dream about moving to France? How we were going to go shopping and get our own apartment and I was going to be a rich footballer with cars and a big house, and you wouldn’t have to worry about nothing. You were the one who always believed that I could be the next Cristiano, when everybody else laughed."

"Remember when I moved to America for high school at 15, and I was so homesick? I didn’t know what anybody was saying for months. They sat me next to a French kid, and he tried to translate everything the teacher was saying. Remember when I called you, saying, “You won’t believe it, the kids here argue with teachers."

"Back home, you know we wouldn’t even dare to blink at our elders."

"Remember when I couldn’t believe the kids were smoking after school? You used to say it sounded like I was in an American TV show."

"Remember when they took me on trial at Bournemouth? At Chelsea, Rangers, Olympiacos, Crystal Palace? Eze and Olise even came up to me after one training and said, “Yo kid, you’re really good.”"

"But they still didn’t sign me."

"Even the B teams in the MLS didn’t want me. I didn’t even know why. They never gave me a reason. The adults handled everything. They just kept taking me all around Europe, and everybody kept saying no."

"My visa was up. My dream was over. They sent me back to Africa, and we cried together."

"You were the one who never stopped believing. A few weeks later, I signed for Leganés and we cried different tears."

"That was back when I used to have emotions. Now, I don’t feel anything. It’s like I’m not even human. Since you died, I’m just blank."

"I don’t even think I shed a tear the day they told me that you were gone. I was just in shock."

"It was a few weeks after I made my debut for Leganés. Who makes their debut at 18 against Real Madrid? It was too crazy. It was a dream."

"And then it was a nightmare. Someone kept calling me from back home. I was annoyed. I didn’t understand why they kept calling me."

"I picked up, and they didn’t even soften it. You know how it is back home. No emotions. Just……..

“Your sister is gone.”
“What?”
“She died.”
“What are you talking about?”
“Somebody put something in her drink at a party, and she never woke up. She is gone.”

"You were 15."

"15."

"I never got any answers. I don’t know if I want to know why. Maybe it was jealousy. Maybe it’s just something that happens in our country. Maybe I could have protected you. I don’t know."

"I try to trust God’s plan. It’s all I can do. I don’t try to forget, because I know I won’t forget. All I can do is use the pain to work harder, and to do everything we dreamed about."

"I wrote this because I can’t speak about it. I wrote this because I want you to know that I will make sure that you live on. I will make sure that everybody knows your name. The whole world."

"Everything I do on a football pitch, it’s for you."

"So much has happened since I last saw you…… You would not even believe it. I don’t know if I believe it."

"You know what’s crazy? After my debut against Madrid, I actually swapped shirts with Mbappé. Remember when we used to watch him on TV, and you’d say, “Mbappé? Yeah, he’s good. But my brother is better.”

"I was wrong about one thing. I don’t want to be rich. I see what it does to people, even to family. When I was at Leganés, everything I was earning, I was sending home. It got to the point where I didn’t even want money anymore. It was just a burden. They never stopped asking. I guess they thought I was a millionaire already. I didn’t even have an apartment. I was living at the training ground in a room with no TV. Just football and sleep, football and sleep."

"I didn’t want a big house. I didn’t want cars. I just wanted to put everything into football. Everything to show the world that my sister was right……."

"Ha…. you will think this is funny. When I moved to play at RB Leipzig, I was always late. Well, not late. But I was on time, which in Germany means you’re very late."

"So you already know what I did next. I started arriving 90 minutes early to everything. I was so early all the time that the guys started calling me “The German.”"

"I always have to overdo everything. I have zero chill. You always said that."

"The pitch is the only place that I feel at home anymore. It’s the place where I feel calm, and I can speak to you. I just wish you were still here so I could tell you….. We did it."

"Everything you said came true."

"We’re leaving for the World Cup tomorrow. For real. Your brother is going to play for Côte d'Ivoire, like Drogba, like Yaya, like Gervinho."

"I don’t even look at it like a game. I look at it like a stage. This is my chance to show the whole world what you saw in me. Every time I score, I’ll make sure everybody knows your name. I’ll make sure they don’t forget you."

"You always said that I could be better than Cristiano. If I see him there, I’ll tell him hello for you."

"I’m going to do what you predicted, I swear. Before I even had real boots, you were telling everybody, “My brother is going to be the greatest in the world.”

"I will prove that you were right, or I will die trying... Your brother, Yan."

— @PlayersTribune

[Clash Report @clashreport]

FULL TEXT OF IRAN-U.S. DEAL

Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding between the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran

1- The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran and their allies in the current war by signing this MoU, declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. Final deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and other provisions of this paragraph. 

2- The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran undertake to respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity and to refrain from interfering in each other's internal affairs.

3- The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran commit to negotiating and achieving the final deal in maximum 60 days, extendable with mutual consent. 

4- Immediately upon the signing of this MoU, the United States of America will begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days. During this period, the traffic of vessels will be in proportion to the numbers of pre-war traffic being restored by the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America further undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final deal. 

5- Upon the signing of this MoU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days only from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles and demining by the Islamic Republic of Iran, will be instated within 30 days. The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialogue with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states in line with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz. 

6- The United States of America undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least $300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The mechanism for the implementation of this plan will be finalized as part of a final deal within 60 days. All required licenses, waivers and permissions needed for the relevant financial transactions will be granted by the United States of America. 

7- The United States of America undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions, i.e. IAEA Board of Governors resolutions and all unilateral US sanctions, primary and secondary, in an agreed-upon schedule as part of the final deal. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America acknowledge the critical importance of the sanctions-termination issue abovementioned, and expressed their intentions to immediately address these issues in the negotiations, in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.

8- The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpiled enriched material, pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with the schedule mentioned in Paragraph Seven, with the minimum methodology to be downblending on site under the supervision of the IAEA. The two parties also agreed to discuss the issue of enrichment and other mutually agreed matters related to the Islamic Republic of Iran's nuclear needs based on a satisfactory framework being agreed upon in the final deal. The final deal will confirm the provisions of this paragraph. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran acknowledge the critical importance of the nuclear issues abovementioned and express their intention to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them. 

9- Pending the final deal, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree to maintain the status quo. The Islamic Republic of Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, and the United States of America will not impose any new sanctions and will not deploy additional forces in the region.

10- The United States of America undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this MoU until the termination of sanctions, the US Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives, and all associated services, including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.

11- The United States of America undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon the implementation of this MoU. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during the negotiations. Such funds, either retained in the original account or transferred, shall be made fully usable for payment to any ultimate beneficiary designated by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America undertakes to issue all necessary licenses and authorizations accordingly.

12- The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree that an executive mechanism will be established to monitor the successful implementation of this MoU and the future compliance of the final deal. 

13- After signing this MoU and subject to the beginning of the implementation of Paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10 and 11 of this MoU and the continuing implementation of these measures, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will start negotiations regarding the final deal exclusively on the other paragraphs.

14- The final deal will be endorsed by a binding [UN Security Council] resolution. 

Source: Tasnim

[Ahmet Can Devecier @Devecier]

Ebola salgininin golgesinde oldukca kotu gunler geciren Kongo’dan tarihi bir baslangic izledik. Her kupada Afrika’dan bir surpriz cikardi bu sefer bayragi Kongo devralacak gibi.

[CGTN Africa @cgtnafrica]

DR Congo held Portugal to a 1-1 draw in their opening Group K match, earning a valuable point against one of the tournament favorites.

#FIFAWorldCup

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The odds of the Fed hiking interest rates in 2026 surge to 49% after the Fed's "dot plot" indicates hikes are possible.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

U.S. AND IRAN DISCUSS MOVING UP SIGNING OF DEAL, SOURCES SAY

Donald Trump’s administration, Iran, and mediators are discussing moving up the signing of a memorandum of understanding to as early as Wednesday via remote signing, sources say. If confirmed, provisions on reopening the Strait of Hormuz could take effect sooner and the deal text may be released. Final timing remains undecided, while planned Friday talks in Switzerland are still expected to proceed.

[RedboxGlobal India @REDBOXINDIA]

PAKISTAN ASKS US TO HOLD OFF ON PUBLISHING MOU DETAILS: VANCE

PAKISTAN SEEKS DELAY IN PUBLIC RELEASE OF MOU, SAYS JD VANCE