Simjo | Blacksands Trading

Daily Fundamental Analyst 🇨🇦 🇺🇸
I read the market so you don't have to.
$PLTR $MU $SOFI $ASTS · $BTC · Macro
Follow for setups that actually make sense ↓

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

https://t.co/NygOA93wOK

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

@coinbureau accurate but worth the context. last print at/above $4 was june 17 ($4.02), so this is a re cross not a new leg up.
The whole move is hormuz crude drifting back toward $80. still well off the $4.56 may peak. supply side, not demand.

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

genuine question for the tl:
fed's split 9-9 on a rate hike, decision jul 29, and btc just bounced to 64.5k like nothing's coming.
are you positioned for a hold, or a hike? because the tape isn't pricing the second one at all.

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

@JUST_KAWS the "mid 60s to 70%" is old news. that was the q2 guide. MU already printed 84.9% GM last quarter and guided approximately 86% for q4. the story isn't margins going to 70, it's whether 90% holds when the cycle turns. that's the real question nobody's asking

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

@RebellioMarket this is the part nobody wants to hear. everyone's out here hunting the perfect entry when the real edge is just not blowing up on one bad trade. size small, survive, repeat

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

stanford just documented a clean way to print on polymarket.
the 5-min btc markets settle on spot price. so right before the bet closes, someone nudges bitcoin on binance for a few seconds and the bet resolves their way.
$8.2m skimmed in 2 months. the settlement price is the vulnerability.

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

@StockSavvyShay half this list is names where AI power is a rounding error. for TXN, ADI, CAT, ETN it barely moves the P&L. the actual leverage is the pure plays: NVTS, MPWR, VICR, BE, POWI. same theme, wildly different % exposure. don't buy the basket, buy the needle movers

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

@DudeWhoInvests "generational buy" is the wrong frame. sofi isn't distressed value like pypl getting a rescue bid. it's a bank charter growing earnings triple digits that the market re rated on rates. the setup is a rerate higher, not a floor to catch.

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

@coinbureau the 48t vs 10t official gap is the real tell. goldman's been tracking london OTC exports and the math only works if it's PBoC. de dollarization on autopilot. they don't care that gold's down 28% from jan, they're buying the dip in size.

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

the "can't afford wildfire" line is just false canada put $316M into a national aerial firefighting fleet in budget 2025 and spends over $1B a year on fires. the foreign aid is a rounding error either way. pick a real argument
the "negligible with capture" angle
$272M spread across a dozen countries is a rounding error in a $500B federal budget. the actual problem with aid isn't the line item, it's how much gets eaten by local officials before it does anything. that's the debate, not "gender rice"

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

@EricDLombardi "a leader who refuses to make the case for something unpopular but needed is no leader at all" this is it. running on conviction instead of vibes, good to see

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

@usermooseontwt unfair to gta tbh, at least the money in that game is fake.
tate's the only one here whose entire empire was reselling a get rich course to broke 16 year olds

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

@StockSavvyShay ceo telling you to hold his stock right after it crashed 11% is the least shocking quote of the year lol. but the math checks barclays $330 PT, worst shortage on record penciled for 2027. read the incentive, keep the numbers.

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

@qualtrim everyone screenshotting the $462b, nobody reading the footnote. half that jump is TPU hardware sales, not pure GCP. margins on that not equal to what people think. do you count hardware backlog as "high margin"?

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

@JUST_KAWS honest q for the memory bulls: at 5x forward, what multiple are you paying on normalized (non-supercycle) earnings?

Because that's the number that decides whether this ages well

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

@CryptoTice_ this part's actually not hype. barclays has the ai contribution falling 1.0pp → 0.2pp by 2027. berezin at bca straight up said we'd probably be in a recession without it. single engine economy, one bad capex guide away from a stall

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

The contradiction is real agreement subtracts operating costs, not debt, which cuts against his "no sharing till all debt repaid" line.
Whether that's a lie or him conflating the $630M actual debt with the $6.3B unrecouped contributions is the actual question.
Gap's real either way.

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

Everything technically checks FCC 7x is real, laser mesh relay is the actual design.
My only pushback: you're describing a moat in present tense for a constellation whose first two prototypes fly in early 2027.
Great thesis, but it's a filing and a plan, not a deployed distribution layer. Price it as optionality, not a moat.

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

@StockSavvyShay Nearly 10x… from a base that only exists because they're setting cash on fire right now.
Off current FCF (approximately $183B combined) it's 3.5x.
The 10x denominator is the 2027 trough on your own chart. Amazon's already FCF negative.
The spending IS the low base.

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

Two things can be true:

1. There was no leaked full text. Poilievre is literally writing letters today asking Carney to release it. Bloomberg reported on *terms* from sources, not a document.

2. Carney still can't square "no sharing until the debt is repaid" with "net revenue is equal after snow removal." The bridge opens in 10 days. The debt takes 50 years.

Stop overcooking it. The medium rare version already wins.

[Ted @TedPillows]

This bro is playing the end game.

Making the Trump family one of the richest families in the world.

All in public.