Simjo | Blacksands Trading

Daily Fundamental Analyst 🇨🇦 🇺🇸
I read the market so you don't have to.
$PLTR $MU $SOFI $ASTS · $BTC · Macro
Follow for setups that actually make sense ↓

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

https://t.co/NygOA93wOK

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

tempus isn't "acquiring" personalis. it already owned 19% and was the exclusive seller of next personal.
this is TEM buying the asset it already controlled distribution on right as medicare coverage flips MRD unit economics.
pay the premium, own the whole cash flow. smart timing.

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

$GOOGL and $TSLA both report wednesday after close. intc thursday.
but the number that matters isn't eps it's capex.
after friday's semi selloff, alphabet raising capex guidance again could sell the stock on a beat. this print is a referendum on the entire ai spend trade, not just googl.

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

@StockOptionCole solid. adding: tsla options pricing 7.6% move wed, googl is the ai capex referendum. after the friday semi selloff, this whole week trades off whether hyperscaler spend still gets rewarded. capex more than eps

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

everyone's cheering the bitmine buyback. the real tell: eth buys collapsed to 7,430 last week to fund it.
$BMNR is down 50% ytd and trading under nav. lee thinks his stock is the better trade than eth right now. sit with that.

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

@StockSavvyShay real story here isn't the buyback, it's that eth buys dropped to 7,430 last week. smallest of the year. they basically paused accumulation to buy back stock trading under nav. capital allocation shift, not just a flex

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

@CryptoTice_ the deposit drain is the actual story, not the payments stuff. banks fund lending off retail deposits. a euro parked in usdc has left the system entirely. that's a credit supply problem, not a convenience one. cipollone knows it, that's the whole panic.

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

@coinbureau accurate but worth the context. last print at/above $4 was june 17 ($4.02), so this is a re cross not a new leg up.
The whole move is hormuz crude drifting back toward $80. still well off the $4.56 may peak. supply side, not demand.

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

genuine question for the tl:
fed's split 9-9 on a rate hike, decision jul 29, and btc just bounced to 64.5k like nothing's coming.
are you positioned for a hold, or a hike? because the tape isn't pricing the second one at all.

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

@JUST_KAWS the "mid 60s to 70%" is old news. that was the q2 guide. MU already printed 84.9% GM last quarter and guided approximately 86% for q4. the story isn't margins going to 70, it's whether 90% holds when the cycle turns. that's the real question nobody's asking

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

@RebellioMarket this is the part nobody wants to hear. everyone's out here hunting the perfect entry when the real edge is just not blowing up on one bad trade. size small, survive, repeat

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

stanford just documented a clean way to print on polymarket.
the 5-min btc markets settle on spot price. so right before the bet closes, someone nudges bitcoin on binance for a few seconds and the bet resolves their way.
$8.2m skimmed in 2 months. the settlement price is the vulnerability.

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

@StockSavvyShay half this list is names where AI power is a rounding error. for TXN, ADI, CAT, ETN it barely moves the P&L. the actual leverage is the pure plays: NVTS, MPWR, VICR, BE, POWI. same theme, wildly different % exposure. don't buy the basket, buy the needle movers

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

@DudeWhoInvests "generational buy" is the wrong frame. sofi isn't distressed value like pypl getting a rescue bid. it's a bank charter growing earnings triple digits that the market re rated on rates. the setup is a rerate higher, not a floor to catch.

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

@coinbureau the 48t vs 10t official gap is the real tell. goldman's been tracking london OTC exports and the math only works if it's PBoC. de dollarization on autopilot. they don't care that gold's down 28% from jan, they're buying the dip in size.

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

the "can't afford wildfire" line is just false canada put $316M into a national aerial firefighting fleet in budget 2025 and spends over $1B a year on fires. the foreign aid is a rounding error either way. pick a real argument
the "negligible with capture" angle
$272M spread across a dozen countries is a rounding error in a $500B federal budget. the actual problem with aid isn't the line item, it's how much gets eaten by local officials before it does anything. that's the debate, not "gender rice"

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

@EricDLombardi "a leader who refuses to make the case for something unpopular but needed is no leader at all" this is it. running on conviction instead of vibes, good to see

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

@usermooseontwt unfair to gta tbh, at least the money in that game is fake.
tate's the only one here whose entire empire was reselling a get rich course to broke 16 year olds

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

@StockSavvyShay ceo telling you to hold his stock right after it crashed 11% is the least shocking quote of the year lol. but the math checks barclays $330 PT, worst shortage on record penciled for 2027. read the incentive, keep the numbers.

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

@qualtrim everyone screenshotting the $462b, nobody reading the footnote. half that jump is TPU hardware sales, not pure GCP. margins on that not equal to what people think. do you count hardware backlog as "high margin"?

[Simjo | Blacksands Trading @DevilOfHaven]

@JUST_KAWS honest q for the memory bulls: at 5x forward, what multiple are you paying on normalized (non-supercycle) earnings?

Because that's the number that decides whether this ages well