Michael

[Brian Nemhauser @hawkblogger]

I didn't mince words about the Myles Garrett trade. It's a titanic move. The Seahawks have to hope there are some icebergs in their path and I pointed out what those might be and which players for Seattle need to step up.

🎙️ https://t.co/6qPA8uzjRR

📺 https://t.co/pWF77DIugC

[Michael @devin_kurantt]

@siekmann_m @skiju96 @siekmann_m das kannst du nicht machen…Infos? Wann? 😮‍💨

[Michael @devin_kurantt]

@AndiErnst Wie kann man - nach dieser Fehlentscheidung gegen Schalke - so ein Wicht sein und sich über eine Benachteiligung beschweren? Wow…dieser Typ 😤 ehrenlos

[Michael @devin_kurantt]

@Toadfresser2 @adrianbb89 😂😂 ich habe keine Aktien hier, aber das war genau der Move, den viele erwartet haben.

[Ian Rapoport @RapSheet]

🚨 🚨 🚨

#Bengals FA edge Trey Hendrickson, the top pass-rusher on the market, is set to sign with the #Ravens, per me and @TomPelissero.

With the Maxx Crosby trade off, Baltimore lands the top edge available.

[RS @EdgebyRS]

$ES Interaction at the Levels 🎯

Reflective Study: Alpha 👇

It was a week that began with nuanced structural repair and ultimately ended with a failed breakout attempt of the recent lower distribution (6,801–6,924). It is noteworthy that Friday’s session validated Thursday’s liquidation break, with value migrating lower. As always, the auction offered real time guidance through recurring elements: Balance Rules, Gaps, and structural defence at pre identified zones, while the LIS Framework and MGI defined execution. Let’s break it down.

Monday opened into Friday’s VAH at 6,924, which overlapped with January VAL and immediately found responsive sellers (LIS Short confirmed). The opening drive lower marked an excess high, validating early seller strength. Thereafter, ES initiated OTFD, leaving behind single prints. The location of these single prints was important, forming right at the Weekly Pivot (6,887), which confirmed initiative activity. ES then rotated into session lows at our pre identified zone of 6,827/33, developing an excess low. This region was a key downside objective in the Weekly Plan, given the weak low (non-excess low) printed at 6,847 and the need for structural clean up. It was also noteworthy that the recovery off 6,827/33 stalled at 6,868, the level that had marked Asia Low, reinforcing that sellers were defending Monday’s pullback.

KEY Learning: Trend identification begins from Period B onward. Observe that the retrace of Period A was less than 50%, which was the first sign of developing weakness. Also, always consider how Opening Drive sessions can evolve. In this case, an open drive lower suggested either a double or triple distribution day down or a b shaped profile. The confirmation comes post London, through continuation or the lack of it. Lastly, any reversal attempt must be gauged via two elements; 1) The magnitude of the pop and 2) What happens after the Higher Low or Lower High.

Tuesday was a classic ES/NQ divergence play given both had Singles prints. ES flushed into Monday’s VAL at ~6,833, a pre identified support that found immediate confluence with NQ filling its single prints and testing London Low. Responsive buyers stepped in and initiated a full value rotation, then filling Monday’s singles and extending toward YVAH at 6,881–92. In the process, ES converted Period A high into support, validating that the move higher was more than just structural repair, eventually trading into 6,910 by session end. It was also important to note that ES printed a higher low through Period B, while the Weekly Pivot at 6,887/97 attracted weak sellers who consistently failed to gain traction. Buyers had effectively secured intraday control.

KEY Learning: In rangebound environments, value rotations and structural repairs become a recurring theme. Another nuance was the NVDA earnings scheduled for Wednesday. Ahead of such major events, the probability of a sustained breakdown is low, which increases the likelihood of rotational behaviour. It is to be noted high tempo Period A and IB edges often prove to be effective to guide the next leg.

Wednesday was a session guided almost entirely by Gap Rules. The overnight session found support at the Weekly Pivot (6,887/97) and gapped higher above 6,924 into RTH. The most important MGI was the Open, which held despite multiple tests, indicating buyer strength and with prominent target at 6,960 (Single Prints), upside had merit. The second high probability opportunity came upon IB High breakout at 6,949 (LIS Long confirmed). This ultimately completed the structural repair from the prior breakdown and the auction then paused ahead of the NVDA release, a typical character into major events.

KEY Learning: A gap following prolonged consolidation, especially one emerging from distribution after multiple sessions of balance, often finds continuation. Although pre event gaps are rare, the lack of seller participation during the IB period confirmed that Gap n Go was active.

Thursday was a textbook event driven session. The NVDA release 30m bar failed to accelerate the move higher, confirmed through both Asia and London sessions, which marked their respective highs below 6,961 (NVDA release candle low). The RTH open was right at YVAH, triggering responsive sellers and an opening drive lower. The initial move was a value rotation, but initiative sellers took full control once YVAL at 6,940 failed. Intraday Buyer attempts at reclaim around 6,933 (Y Low) and 6,924 (breakout point) but failed to reclaim 6,940 (YVAL), confirming complete seller dominance. The move extended to fill the gap at 6,913 and eventually rotated down to 6,874 (LIS Level), where buyers stepped in (LIS Long confirmed) for a partial mean reversion after the liquidation break.

KEY Learning: When events fail to accelerate, short term participants are liquidated. If a gap session ahead of an event does not find continuation post release, especially through overnight and Period A of the following RTH session, the probability of a reversal back to the origin increases materially. Additionally, when IB ranges expand beyond 70–80 points and align with key structural levels, the probability of exhaustion rises significantly.

Friday was the validation session. ES opened below YVAL on a true/value gap down and found buyers off Tuesday’s excess low. In accordance to Gap Rules, reclaim of the Open (6,955) is important to initiate an inventory correction and Period B held the Open for a rotation into YVAL 6,880. Thereafter both price and value broadly held under YVAL and session highs capped at Weekly Pivot 6,887/97.

KEY Learning: Gap Rules at the forefront for the second time this week. Earlier it was Gap n Go, this time around it was Gap down into Demand Zone and inventory correction. It’s important to not follow Gap n Go without evidence, instead observe if the Open is into a Support/Resistance.

#ES_F | $ES_F | #EdgebyRS - Clarity First / Action Next.

[Michael @devin_kurantt]

@EvanHillHB

[Michael @devin_kurantt]

@hawkblogger I love it! Thank you for everything you do for Seattle! I wish I could join you guys (living in Germany and not feeling good about going to the states right now 🥺 watched all 18 games of the season live - let’s get a 20th game in 2 weeks 💚💙🙌

[Michael @devin_kurantt]

@Sky_Dirk Wenn Seo auch kommt, fange ich direkt an zu saufen 🇧🇦

[Michael @devin_kurantt]

@robertmays 💔 🫂

[Michael @devin_kurantt]

@MikeDugar Thank you!!!

[Michael @devin_kurantt]

@bcondotta Don’t do this to us 😩💚💙

[Michael @devin_kurantt]

@MikeDugar Man, am up for 22 hours now, living in Germany (4:15 AM). Feeling great. Let’s fucking get the No. 1 seed! 💙💚

[Michael @devin_kurantt]

@EvanHillHB I live in Germany and am awake for 17 hours now, waiting for kickoff 😂 I will try to get 3 hours of sleep now to get up at 2:00 AM again (like every week) to watch our Seattle Seahawks get the No. 1 seed. 💙💚 go Hawks!

[Brian Nemhauser @hawkblogger]

With the Seahawks and 49ers winning, the Rams have been eliminated from the race for the NFC West division title and the #1 seed in the NFC.

[Dugar, Michael-Shawn @MikeDugar]

Mike Macdonald on this Darnold-Kupp play in OT: “Incredible. Guy in his face, stepping into the throw, no fear. Ripping it.”

Mike says it’s easy to just say “don’t throw picks” but also, “If you tell him not to turn the ball over, he’s not going to make plays like that. We want him to be decisive and rip it.”

[Michael @devin_kurantt]

@EdgebyRS I can only encourage you to give it a try if you really want to learn! It takes effort but it’s worth it.
I am a member since June 22 and have never even considered a cancellation. Try it, put in some effort and results will come 🙏 thank you, RS!

[Robert Mays @robertmays]

My favorite thing about this site is people being like, "You're a f**cking piece of sh*t, go crawl into a hole."

And in their bio, it's like, "Proud dad."

[Michael @devin_kurantt]

@EdgebyRS

[Michael @devin_kurantt]

@EdgebyRS Thank you so much, once again. Week done before Thursday’s DAX opening 🫶