Devolved Election Projections

Tools to project your own results of the Scottish, Welsh, Northern Irish and London Elections 🗳️

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[Devolved Election Projections @DevolvedVotes]

@Gr8Montrose1645 My standard rule is that turnout is usually too low and the race too personalised to use them as a reliable indicator.

There are some exceptions and we have the capacity to add some weightings from bye-elections, but we haven't done so yet.

[Devolved Election Projections @DevolvedVotes]

Our projection on the latest Norstat poll for the next general election in Scotland:

🎗️ SNP — 43
🌳 Con — 5
🔶 LD — 5
🌹 Lab — 4

This is a strong poll for the SNP which would see them take back most of the seats they lost in 2024.

[Northern Ireland Elects @NI_Elects]

The local council and Assembly elections are scheduled for Thursday 6 May 2027

Voters will receive 1 poll card with their allocated polling place. The Assembly ballot paper will be white, and the local council ballot paper will be yellow

More information from @eoni_official 👇

[Devolved Election Projections @DevolvedVotes]

Every other electoral system would produce a result which more fairly reflects the wishes of votes, although the Supplmentary Vote is almost identically as bad as FPTP.

[Devolved Election Projections @DevolvedVotes]

Every other electoral system would produce a result which more fairly reflects the wishes of votes, although the Supplmentary Vote is almost identically as bad as FPTP.

[Devolved Election Projections @DevolvedVotes]

Its solid for the Tories who are flat, but also for the Lib Dems who could lose a lot of votes but only 2 seats.

The Scottish Greens will also be happy with this showing.

This is the second Scottish Westminster poll to have Restore winning a decent number of votes.

[Devolved Election Projections @DevolvedVotes]

Make your own projection under any electoral system on: https://t.co/ICvN9xRu02

[Devolved Election Projections @DevolvedVotes]

After adding in this weekend's polls our Nowcast shows a Labour majority for the very first time.
🌹 Lab — 329
🌳 Con — 126
🔶 LD — 68
➡️ Ref — 48
🎗️ SNP — 46
🌼 PC — 8
☘️ SF — 6
🦁 DUP — 4
🌱 GP — 4

⚪ Others — 11

[Devolved Election Projections @DevolvedVotes]

No alternative system would give them a majority, but they are only on 28% of the vote.

[Devolved Election Projections @DevolvedVotes]

There are a lot of tight races across both Scotland and England, with Labour leading most of marginals in England but trailing marginals North of the border.

Very few seats are on course to be won with genuine majority support. FPTP can't handle this.

[Ireland Election Projections @irish_election]

Claiming 100% certaintly on a coin flip race would be naive even if they had gotten lucky.

And this is their guess for Ireland on today's numbers.

The whole thing is clickbait nonsense.

[Ireland Election Projections @irish_election]

Our projection on the latest @REDCResearch / @businessposthq poll:

☘️ Sinn Féin — 45 Seats
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 39
⭐ Fine Gael — 28
🟪 Social Democrats — 21
🟢 Independent Ireland — 12
🌳 Aontú — 10
🌹 Labour — 7
💬 Independent — 7
✊ PBP-S — 5

[Devolved Election Projections @DevolvedVotes]

@MartinG1492 @nation @plaidcymru @WelshLibDems The 6 seat rule is the biggest issue, even Sainte-Laguë would struggle to fix it. STV or bigger lists would help.

[Devolved Election Projections @DevolvedVotes]

Our projection for the next Senedd election based on the latest Beaufort Research poll for @nation.cymru

🌼 PC — 42
➡️ Ref — 34
🌹 Lab — 12
🌳 Con — 7
🌱 GP — 1

A good showing for @plaidcymru but wipe out for the @WelshLibDems

[Devolved Election Projections @DevolvedVotes]

@Draigmelyn @nation @plaidcymru @WelshLibDems I'm looking into it

[Devolved Election Projections @DevolvedVotes]

@Dunadan9 @geeksarecool Reform hit their polling average almost exactly, it was everyone (except YouGov) underestimating Plaid that caused the miss.

[Devolved Election Projections @DevolvedVotes]

@SaneDinkle @nation @plaidcymru @WelshLibDems No problem!

[Devolved Election Projections @DevolvedVotes]

@SaneDinkle @nation @plaidcymru @WelshLibDems The hexagons show seats: 3/6 segments means the party is winning 3 seats, 1/6 means winning one seat.

[Devolved Election Projections @DevolvedVotes]

@DaiAberdare That is odd, I'll have a dig through the data later in the week to see if it's a quirk of the logic or of it shows something underlying.