Devolved Election Projections

Tools to project your own results of the Scottish, Welsh, Northern Irish and London Elections 🗳️

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[Devolved Election Projections @DevolvedVotes]

@MICHAELHEG92503 I just D'Hont'd the headline numbers.

But, I think Easton would be in with a shout. It would depend on how many other unionists were in the race and if he could get a firsts votes outside of North Down.

[Devolved Election Projections @DevolvedVotes]

It would depend on exactly how you do it, but on 2024 a 'fair' distribution would be:

SF 5
DUP 4
APNI 3
SDLP 2
UUP 2
TUV 1
Easton 1

[The Irish News @irish_news]

"If Westminster introduced proportional representation, it would be bad news for the DUP and Sinn Féin and good news for most other parties.

"Based on the results of the last general election, Sinn Féin would drop from seven seats to five, and the DUP from five to four."

Read Newton Emerson: https://t.co/Box3kSo6T8

[Devolved Election Projections @DevolvedVotes]

This is where Find Out Now collect their sample:

https://t.co/xXvCY0IG0w

[Devolved Election Projections @DevolvedVotes]

The media need to stop taking Find Out Now seriously. They are a postcode lottery website.

[Ireland Election Projections @irish_election]

We were pretty much on the money in Galway West too.

(The different number of rounds is a computational thing)

[Ireland Election Projections @irish_election]

Our projection of Dublin Central (left) compared to real life (right).

The system works!

[Ireland Election Projections @irish_election]

If Claude thinks Hutch will get 6000 transfers in Dublin Central while Thomas will get 1500 in Galway where there are more voters then Claude is obviously wrong.

AI is just fancy predictive text. It "knows" nothing.

[Ireland Election Projections @irish_election]

Our calls of Dublin Central and Galway West as polls closed.

Based on national swing, Fine Gael should take Galway West and the Social Democrats should take Dublin Central narrowly ahead of Sinn Féin.

https://t.co/GvUL8cjpSY

[Devolved Election Projections @DevolvedVotes]

SV absolutely does not guarantee majority support for your MP and it would change barely any seats.

SV is not electoral reform, it's FPTP with window dressing.

[Patrick Dunleavy @PJDunleavy]

Brilliant news that Burnham backs the Supplementary Vote - the system used for electing London Mayor & all mayors until 2023, & restored for future mayoral elections. This ensures every MP is one of top 2 candidates locally, but also has majority support. & We know it works in UK

[Josh Pizzuto-Pomaco @joshpizpom]

The Scottish Conservatives voted 25-0, with six abstentions, to back the change in the law which made this possible.

[Devolved Election Projections @DevolvedVotes]

@LapGong Very unlikely in the short term, but it's very hard to say when - or if - that could change.

It's not a simple sectarian headcount anymore because there are genuine swing voters now.

[Devolved Election Projections @DevolvedVotes]

As a Northern Irish person, I'm glad we have a defined trigger for a vote and a clear cooling off period - even if it's a bit vague.

The current set up in Scotland isn't good for anyone.

[Paul Hutcheon @paulhutcheon]

NEW: A Labour MSP has backed a cross party convention to "settle" the issue of a second independence referendum trigger.

https://t.co/xZVIwvT5Ft

[Devolved Election Projections @DevolvedVotes]

@AbolishWestmin This is great, weighting More in Common equally with YouGov was a big mistake.

[Devolved Election Projections @DevolvedVotes]

This, and the rumours from Ceredigion Penfro and Sir Fynwy Torfaen suggest an absolute disaster for Labour.

Possibly even worse than some of their worst polls.

[Hannah Woodward @HWoodwardSky]

Plaid sources calling three seats in Blaenau Gwent Caerfilli Rhymni.

The party says following the successful Caerfilli by election result in October this result is symbolic and poetic.

[Devolved Election Projections @DevolvedVotes]

We have our first results for the 2026 devolved elections! Two widely expected results Scotland

Lib Dem: Orkney
SNP: Dundee City West

https://t.co/RYRpr3mCTg

We're top of the accuracy league table! I know it's meaningless right now but it might be the last time it happens

[BBC Scotland News @BBCScotlandNews]

As votes are being tallied, here's our *rough* guide on when to expect declarations at election counts across Scotland.

Click here to find the link to your dedicated constituency page scorecard and Scotland map 📲 https://t.co/yVTnsmRV9G

[Devolved Election Projections @DevolvedVotes]

@indy_swim A huge amount of effort to demonstrate how bad MRPs are. They're all over the place in Scotland & Wales.

But I'm worried that my Scottish polling average has over-egged the SNP compared the some. Being this far from Ballot Box Scotland is a bit of a concern.

[Devolved Election Projections @DevolvedVotes]

We're going to be running live results and a side by side comparison of all MRPs and lots of Projection sites.

The pages are live now and will update as results come in tomorrow.

Results: https://t.co/RYRpr3mCTg
Accuracy: https://t.co/Q9Sj8jkM3l

[Devolved Election Projections @DevolvedVotes]

@frasmcm I blame you all at @ScotVoting for encouraging this nerdery.

[Devolved Election Projections @DevolvedVotes]

@LeftieStats Do you have constituency level vote shares? I'll add them if you do.