Devolved Election Projections

Tools to project your own results of the Scottish, Welsh, Northern Irish and London Elections 🗳️

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[Devolved Election Projections @DevolvedVotes]

Make your own projection under any electoral system on: https://t.co/ICvN9xRu02

[Devolved Election Projections @DevolvedVotes]

After adding in this weekend's polls our Nowcast shows a Labour majority for the very first time.
🌹 Lab — 329
🌳 Con — 126
🔶 LD — 68
➡️ Ref — 48
🎗️ SNP — 46
🌼 PC — 8
☘️ SF — 6
🦁 DUP — 4
🌱 GP — 4

⚪ Others — 11

[Devolved Election Projections @DevolvedVotes]

No alternative system would give them a majority, but they are only on 28% of the vote.

[Devolved Election Projections @DevolvedVotes]

There are a lot of tight races across both Scotland and England, with Labour leading most of marginals in England but trailing marginals North of the border.

Very few seats are on course to be won with genuine majority support. FPTP can't handle this.

[Ireland Election Projections @irish_election]

Claiming 100% certaintly on a coin flip race would be naive even if they had gotten lucky.

And this is their guess for Ireland on today's numbers.

The whole thing is clickbait nonsense.

[Ireland Election Projections @irish_election]

Our projection on the latest @REDCResearch / @businessposthq poll:

☘️ Sinn Féin — 45 Seats
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 39
⭐ Fine Gael — 28
🟪 Social Democrats — 21
🟢 Independent Ireland — 12
🌳 Aontú — 10
🌹 Labour — 7
💬 Independent — 7
✊ PBP-S — 5

[Devolved Election Projections @DevolvedVotes]

@MartinG1492 @nation @plaidcymru @WelshLibDems The 6 seat rule is the biggest issue, even Sainte-Laguë would struggle to fix it. STV or bigger lists would help.

[Devolved Election Projections @DevolvedVotes]

Our projection for the next Senedd election based on the latest Beaufort Research poll for @nation.cymru

🌼 PC — 42
➡️ Ref — 34
🌹 Lab — 12
🌳 Con — 7
🌱 GP — 1

A good showing for @plaidcymru but wipe out for the @WelshLibDems

[Devolved Election Projections @DevolvedVotes]

@Draigmelyn @nation @plaidcymru @WelshLibDems I'm looking into it

[Devolved Election Projections @DevolvedVotes]

@Dunadan9 @geeksarecool Reform hit their polling average almost exactly, it was everyone (except YouGov) underestimating Plaid that caused the miss.

[Devolved Election Projections @DevolvedVotes]

@SaneDinkle @nation @plaidcymru @WelshLibDems No problem!

[Devolved Election Projections @DevolvedVotes]

@SaneDinkle @nation @plaidcymru @WelshLibDems The hexagons show seats: 3/6 segments means the party is winning 3 seats, 1/6 means winning one seat.

[Devolved Election Projections @DevolvedVotes]

@DaiAberdare That is odd, I'll have a dig through the data later in the week to see if it's a quirk of the logic or of it shows something underlying.

[Devolved Election Projections @DevolvedVotes]

@nation @plaidcymru @WelshLibDems You can make your own or click 'latest poll' to see all of this in more detail on:
https://t.co/cpYbVtjHjK

[Devolved Election Projections @DevolvedVotes]

Here are alternative systems, STV could resurrect the Lib Dems, so would chaning to a more proportional version of AMS.

[Devolved Election Projections @DevolvedVotes]

Here are the regional breakdowns for the biggest 3, Plaid Cymru in the West, Labour in south, Reform in the East.

[Devolved Election Projections @DevolvedVotes]

@JamesK80P @MartinG1492 I'm no fan of Find Out Now and their postcode lottery gambit or Electoral Calculus who validate them, but I think this monstrosity of a map comes from UKDispatch which is pure AI slop.

[Devolved Election Projections @DevolvedVotes]

Why pretend to do a Scottish or Welsh seat projection if you don't include Plaid Cymru or the SNP? All your numbers in Scotland and Wales are meaningless.

I ran it through our system which remembers that Scotland & Wales exist: Labour 49 short.

[UK Dispatch @UKDispatch_]

Westminster Electoral Calculus MRP, with tactical voting:

🌹 LAB: 27%
➡️ REF: 22%
🌳 CON: 19%
🔶 LDM: 9%
🌍 GRN: 8%
🦁 RES: 8%

Polling via @FindoutnowUK

With Seats:

🌹 LAB: 293 <— Short of 3
➡️ REF: 72 <— 217 Short
🌳 CON: 98 <—- 220 Short
🔶 LDM: 67
🌍 GRN: 6
🦁 RES: 1 <—- 325 Short