This isn't alt season... yet.
It's not even close.
Most alts are bleeding against Bitcoin, but are way up in USD.
We've only had a 4.5% drop in bitcoin dominance.
The real alt season starts when the bitcoin dominance market structure turns bearish.
Yes, there are outliers.
Find the charts that are trending against both USD and BTC.
Here are a few of the strongest so far:
$SOL, $RUNE, $RNDR, $LINK, $FET
There are others that are starting to gain strength against Bitcoin that are also tradeable:
$UNI, $SUSHI, $SUPER, $SNX, $ILV
Trade those (relative strength) by buying on pull backs (hourly and 4 hour 200EMA's) and don't fuck around with the weak ones.
You can also find coins that are on L1's and L2's on the coins that are trading strong against Bitcoin as high beta plays that will outperform as well.
Yes, I'm mostly talking about the Solana market.
Remember, the real fun begins when we make lower lows and we lose the trend.
Until then, this is still the #Bitcoin show until further notice and your goal is to not get liquidated or lose all your money before the real show begins.
That is where you will make your real wealth.
Bitcoin has a strong affinity for the 61.8% fibonacci retracement level for rallies to get to before sell offs.
Here are a few examples of #bitcoin and its love of it.
2014-2016 - $BTC .618 -> 38% sell off before new highs.
Two of the 2017 Bear Market Rallies After the $20k high - Hit .618 then sold off 40%.
The 2019 Bear Market Rally before the covid drop hit the .618 perfectly from 2017-2018 high to low.
And finally, that brings us to today and where we are currently.
Personally, I don't think we see big pull backs (more than 15-20% on Bitcoin until we make it up there, but I could always be wrong and will happily change my plan until then.
Then maybe a quick wick down to $32,000-$36,000 on some FUD like US banning bitcoin mining or ETF delay or US banning owning Bitcoin.
If this is a bear market rally, then Bitcoin most likely sweeps that high around $48,700 at the .618 and that's all she wrote.
If this is a bull market rally, I think that the .618 is a good level to start hedging for a bit of a sell off to reload as is historically a strong level to do so.
If we break and close above it, then I think new highs are most likely and I have my own target in mind for that, but I can share that at some other time.
Especially with the current market environment of inflation, money printing and the spot ETF and halving narratives.
Next I'll share Bitcoin dominance and Ethereum.
All crypto fear, uncertainty and doubt (FUD) has just been liquidated.
When the market finds a bottom on this Binance news, all sources of FUD from the last two years will have been eliminated.
The market is currently panicking on news headlines which have "guilty" and crypto in the same text. But the Binance news more closely resembles a settlement. No exchanges were KYC/AML compliant 5 years ago, now they all are. We will be able to finally put the Binance FUD to bed.
Then what is left on the horizon?
- ETF approvals
- Bitcoin Halving
- Lower interest rates
- Possible recession = more QE
Each of these are ridiculously positives triggers for Bitcoin in there own right.
Together, we are about to see a Bitcoin liquidity atomic bomb go off.
I find it interesting to see people say that this time is different for #Bitcoin, because so far, not a single thing has been.
Here's what BitTime and the Halving Cycles Theory has said so far in 2023:
Bitcoin would bottom +/- 21 days from November 28th, 2022: Actual bottom = 21 November 2022 (green dot)✅
The best cycle buying prices would come in Green Year (Nov 28th, 2022 - Nov 28th, 2023): 16.5k bottom range did just that ✅
The first early top (yellow dot) would come +/- 21 days from July 9th in Green Year, and BitTime said July specifically: done on July 9th, 2023 ✅
Bitcoin would bottom from the yellow dot in August according to last BitTime white cycle: Did that too ✅
Price would make a move to the median in Green Year (Half of Previous ATH at 34,500): done just recently ✅
The Halving Cycles Theory and BitTime have nailed every Green Year prediction.
People come up with all kinds of reasons why price is moving up and down, but cycles keep on chugging perfectly.
We've got wild predictors on both sides, black swan macro predictors, and ETF model breaker predictors.
Personally, I don't think cycles care about either one of those.
Our latest move was not a surprise, it was right on time.
"Then what's next?" You might ask...
Just take a look at the green circles early in blue years.
This was an impressive rise we just saw, but it doesn't look like it's done. This is the first rise we've seen after 8 months of sideways!
The next local top typically forms early in Blue Year between December - February.
Absolutely - same plan 🤝
28.3k is a perfect target, because it's the deviation from the midrange and there is a huge liquidation pool (heatmap).
Although October is usually a stronger month, volume and OI are not showing significant momentum so far.
Therefore, I don't believe we will surpass 28.3k, making this region the perfect entry point for swing shorts!
DCA, HODL & Take profits.
Here’s my take on the hot narratives in 24/25.
This is my favourite ways to make money in crypto.
It may be slow, it may be boring,
But once you identify a narrative and the undervalued project in that narrative,
It all becomes so simple & straight forward.
You don't need to check your portfolio every 2 days.
I personally haven’t checked my portfolio for gains in weeks.
It’s almost bitter sweet then #BTC price declines.
Because I just get to pick up more of my fav gems.
🔑 Let’s talk about the significance of narratives
2021 was the year of the Metaverse & NFT’s.
$BLOK did 170x in 21 days (Me and the homies caught this)
$SAND did 11x in 28 days
Facebook changing their name to meta also added some fuel to the rocket 🚀.
To be fair, any any every project was printing money, but the hot narratives really made people 7 figures.
🔑 Now how do we prepare for the next hot narrative?
It’s a combination of use case, speculation and trend.
Some speculative narratives for 2024 are
#Layer2: $ARB, $OP, #zkSync Era
#AI: $AGIX $INJ
#LSD: $LDO $RPL
#RWA: $RIO
Just some examples to name a few.
⚠️ These narratives are rather stable, but new ones could emerge rapidly, the more speculative a narrative, the more it tends to pump 🚀 stupidly, similar to the NFT boom of 2021.
No one understood it but no one wanted to miss out.
🔑 The formula
- Find your winning narrative & research a top project
- DCA over 12-24 months
- Plan your take profit strategy & execute
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🧵 ARKHAM AIRDROP CONFIRMED
@ArkhamIntel announced the launch of $ARKM token on Binance Launchpad 💰
Is it still possible to get $ARKM #airdrop? Let's find out 🔽
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