Hot take… isn’t it kinda crazy that nobody is really using AI Agents? I don’t mean software engineers or AI early adopters. I mean “college friends talking about it in group chat,” the feeling you got when everyone started using Instagram or TikTok.
These frontier AI models are *insane* (as are the harnesses & tool calls & the like). And every large tech co has an AI agents platform, not to mention all the YC startups doing vertical agents. Yet all of your friends and family outside of tech — who spend all day staring at their iPhones and get paid to work in browser tabs — don’t really care or find themselves using any AI agents yet.
Yes ChatGPT, Claude, etc. are extremely popular… but if you look at the engagement data the vast majority of people are still using these aI chat tools like a glorified Google + Grammarly. That’s why the AGI labs are all pushing desktop apps for Codex, Cowork, etc. so hard to non-technical ppl. And yes exceptions for lawyers and customer service but even those have some asterisks and exceptions to rule.
Look I’m not saying the ChatGPT moment for AI Agents is not coming… it most definitely is! Remember we pivoted from Arc to Dia precisely because we believe computing is going to be radically reimagined around these AI primitives. No doubt. But that’s my point: it’s just so surprising it hasn’t happened yet because all of the tech you’d need is there.
Again if you stop for a second and think about it… for all the press and money and hype and models and crazy ARR numbers… this “AI Agent” moment does not *feel* like the other breakthrough tech moments we’ve lived through (e.g. think the shift to Stories via Snapchat & Instagram, or shift to on-demand via Uber/Airbnb/Doordash).
Which is a long way of saying: if you can figure out the answer to “why” most people don’t care about AI agents yet (and have no enduring interest in using them) — especially since the models and harnesses are here and ready — the answer to that question will allow you to capture a lot of marketshare and make a lot of money in 2027.
Theoretically, the tech is ready for AI Agents to totally transform how we work and live our lives… but alas the general public dgaf… that’s the generational puzzle to solve for the next 12 months for anyone not working on the models themselves.
between claude code, cowork, chatgpt work, & codex, most current white collar work is either already automatable or visibly waiting to be automated. you can walk into any small business right now & maybe automate it at least 50%, likely way more.
these four products together are eating the entire knowledge economy.
& nobody else is even in the same cultural or technological orbit at the moment.
JUST IN: Scientists propose gradually reducing the global population to 4 billion by 2200, arguing it would “ease pressure" on natural resources & improve quality of life.
Ok it seems like a lot of people don’t understand this, so let me explain: Very soon everyone will have “always on” AI. It will just do things for you. And it will suggest what you should do. And it’ll be right. The era of “I’m really good at telling AI what to do” is temporary.
Because of the interconnected knowledges and complexity of systems it takes agency to direct and structure the intelligence towards creating order.
Because the utility of order for humanity depends on application in the physical world
Layer a custom harness on top of the models for org and roles.
We wanted general intelligence and got it. But we need specific guidance to unlock the power.
You can solve unsolvable math problems. But you can’t just one shot the ask to solve one.
Layer a custom harness on top of the models for org and roles.
We wanted general intelligence and got it. But we need specific guidance to unlock the power.
You can solve unsolvable math problems. But you can’t just one shot the ask to solve one.
at most companies, the senior engineer types are moving towards "general" harness solutions and skills and plugins. at the same time the true power of these models comes out when make the thinnest possible harness with problem specific focus
Newton's theory of gravity was wrong.
We just kept teaching it anyway.
Almost everyone pictures gravity the way Newton described it 340 years ago. The Sun sits in the center. Invisible strings of force reach out across space and pull the planets inward, like a cosmic game of tetherball. The planets want to fly off in a straight line, but the Sun keeps yanking them back, and the balance between those two forces traces out an orbit.
That picture is beautiful, it's useful, and it's wrong.
Einstein demolished it in 1915 and replaced it with something far stranger. There are no strings. There is no pulling. The Sun is not reaching out and grabbing anything.
What the Sun actually does is bend the shape of space and time around it.
Think of spacetime as a fabric, and mass as a weight resting on that fabric. The Sun is so massive it creates an enormous dent, a deep curved valley in the geometry of reality itself. The planets aren't being pulled toward the Sun. They're rolling along the curves of that valley, following the natural contour of bent space.
A planet in orbit is actually traveling in a straight line. From its own perspective, it feels no force at all. It's coasting freely through space, moving in the straightest possible path available to it. The path just happens to be curved, because the space it's moving through is curved. The Sun didn't bend the planet's motion. The Sun bent the ruler you'd use to measure "straight."
People assume there's "no gravity" in orbit, but that's false. Gravity at the altitude of the space station is nearly as strong as it is on the ground.
Astronauts float because they, and their entire spacecraft, are in continuous free fall around the planet, following the curve of spacetime together. Falling and orbiting are the same thing. An orbit is just falling so fast sideways that you keep missing the ground.
Now hold onto that idea, because it leads somewhere your mind will resist.
Newton believed gravity was instantaneous.
If the Sun vanished right now, he assumed Earth would fly off immediately. Einstein proved that's impossible. Gravity is not instant. Changes in gravity travel at exactly the speed of light. If the Sun disappeared this second, Earth would keep orbiting the empty space where it used to be for eight full minutes, because that's how long it takes the information that the Sun is gone to ripple across 93 million miles of spacetime.
We would keep circling a ghost. We would feel the warmth of light that no longer has a source, and we would trace loyal circles around a gravity well that no longer exists, and we would have no way of knowing anything had changed until the darkness and the drift arrived together.
There's a detail even deeper than that, and it's the detail that made Einstein's theory undeniable.
For centuries, astronomers noticed that the planet Mercury's orbit was misbehaving. Its closest point to the Sun kept shifting, rotating slightly with every pass, an amount Newton's equations could not fully explain no matter how carefully they were tuned. Scientists were so confident in Newton that they invented an entire hidden planet, called Vulcan, and spent decades searching for it to explain the discrepancy. The planet did not exist.
The discrepancy existed because space near the Sun is so severely curved that Mercury, being the closest planet, feels the warping more intensely than Newton's flat-space math could account for. When Einstein ran the numbers with curved spacetime, Mercury's strange precession fell out of the equations perfectly, with no fudging, no hidden planets, no adjustments. That single calculation was the moment we knew the old universe was gone.
So when you look up and picture the planets held in place, let go of the strings. Nothing is holding them. Nothing is pulling.
The Sun simply carved a shape into the fabric of existence, and everything nearby is faithfully, silently rolling along the walls of that shape, mistaking the curve for a straight line, mistaking free fall for a bond.
Gravity was never a force gripping the planets.
It was the geometry of the stage they dance on, quietly telling them where straight ahead actually leads.
opus 4.6 is the last anthropic model that i had no problem reading the writing of quickly
all of the models since, incl fable, are a lot less legible. for both coding and convo
is it an RL artifact? what's causing it? i've seen this sentiment shared by friends
@signulll Absolutely. When I first used ChatGPT and understood how it worked, what it taught me wasn't so much how intelligent Large Language Models were, but how unimpressive most humans were.