I keep hearing: “South Carolina lost to Alabama and Ole Miss — how could they get in the playoff over them?”
Here’s the deal: Head-to-head only matters when all else is equal. If one team has a clearly better resume, head-to-head is irrelevant.
It’s the same reason NIU doesn’t make the playoff for beating Notre Dame.
South Carolina’s resume is far and away better than Alabama’s or Ole Miss’s:
• 6-game win streak
• 4 wins over Top 25 teams
Don’t tell me head-to-head matters when:
• The committee ranked Alabama over Tennessee (despite Alabama losing to them).
• South Carolina over LSU (despite South Carolina losing to them).
The numbers don’t lie:
• Oklahoma went 2-6 in the SEC (avg. loss by 17.6 PPG).
• Vandy went 3-5 in the SEC (avg. loss by 8.5 PPG).
Alabama lost to both on the road.
South Carolina beat both on the road by 26 and 21 points.
SC’s resume:
• One bad game all year.
• Lost their QB in the 2nd half of a 3-point loss to LSU.
• Nearly won as 3-TD underdogs at Alabama.
Combined record of SC’s losses: 26-10
Combined record of Alabama’s losses: 22-14
It’s simple:
• SC is on a roll (6 straight wins).
• They’ve beaten more ranked teams.
• Their losses are better quality.
It’s down to SC vs. Bama for the final playoff spot.
The committee’s choice: brand vs. deserving.
Final spot in 12-team CFP likely comes down to Bama vs. S. Carolina (w/ Ole Miss and Miami OLI).
-In Bama’s favor: 2-point head-to-head win over the Cocks. Slight edge in SOR.
-In SC’s favor: lost to Bama by only 2 points at Tuscaloosa as 3TD dogs 8 weeks ago. Slight edge in SOS. No ugly losses (like ALA’s to Vandy and the OKL blowout). LSU loss incl’d poor officiating and QB Sellers INJ in 1st half. Most importantly, SC is hotter team w/ 2 wins over ranked opp’s last 3 weeks.
From where I sit, if Bama gets in, it’s the brand.