Douglas Goh

Founder, Husband, Investor. Currently building

[Antonio Linares @alc2022]

The stock market will run a test once in a while to see how much of a pussy you are

[Naru @Naruvt0]

DUDE, WHAT IS THIS!!!!!????? IT'S SO PEAK

0:00 Phase 1
3:28 Phase 2 Transition
3:33 Phase 2

[Bloomberg @business]

S&P Global Ratings maintained its stable outlook on Indonesia and affirmed its long-term foreign-currency issuer rating at BBB https://t.co/yfWrwIC6ul

[ilham @ilhamfputra]

jujur sekarang @PasalKita masih gw subsidi sendiri: server, db, dll sekitar US$200/bulan, di luar subs coding agents 😅

tapi gw percaya akses baca regulasi itu hak semua orang

jadi akses membaca berbagai jenis regulasi akan GRATIS SELAMANYA :)

sekarang udah ada Peraturan OJK dan Putusan MK juga lho 👀

[NTS @NTSkydl]

@MercedesAMGF1

[Pink Bourbon @pinkbourbon8898]

The Cheapest Market No One Wants to Touch.

A note on JCI, the rupiah, and the silence from Senayan

On a pure valuation basis, the Indonesian equity market right now is one of the most asymmetric setups I have seen in this region in over a decade. A 40% drawdown from peak. Multiples that would make a value investor weep with joy. Banks trading at fractions of book. Commodity names priced like the cycle is permanently over. If you put this data in front of any analyst at a different house with no context at all, they’d be banging the table to go long.

And yet here they are. Not buying.

Why Cheap Is Not Enough

Valuation is a mirror. It tells you what the market thinks today. What it cannot tell you is when the story changes. And right now in Indonesia, I cannot point to a single credible signal that the policy environment is improving. Not one. That is the problem.

This is a market that has been repriced by a structural question that nobody in Jakarta seems to want to answer clearly: what is the actual development model this government is running, and who does it serve?

We have watched regulatory uncertainty pile up quarter after quarter. We have watched export policy shift in ways that punish the very sectors that attract foreign capital. We have watched governance at the state enterprise level deteriorate in ways that used to be the kind of thing emerging market investors quietly accepted, until they didn't.

"Cheap markets stay cheap for a long time when the catalyst for re-rating is political. And politics in Indonesia right now is giving me nothing to work with."

The Rupiah and the Silence From Senayan

USD/IDR at 18,050. SGD/IDR at 14,080. These are not numbers you explain away with a Fed rate cycle or global risk-off sentiment alone. The rupiah has been systematically losing credibility because the fiscal and policy signals coming out of Jakarta are, at best, ambiguous. At worst, they are alarming.

What concerns me most is not the exchange rate itself. Currency weakness is manageable. What concerns me is the institutional non-response. The DPR Indonesia's parliament has been conspicuously, almost aggressively, silent. And that silence is doing real damage.

When a currency depreciates this sharply, the population has a right to expect its elected representatives to either explain what is happening, hold the executive accountable, or at minimum ask the hard questions publicly. That is what a functioning legislature does. What we are seeing instead looks like an institution that has either lost the will to check executive power, or has made a quiet political calculation that silence is the safer play.

Neither interpretation is good for country risk. Foreign institutional investors price political risk in ways that go beyond spreadsheets. When we see a legislature go quiet during a macro stress event of this magnitude, the question we ask is: who is actually governing this country, and through what accountability structure? Right now, that question does not have a clean answer.

What Would Change My View
I want to be clear: I am not structurally bearish on Indonesia. The demographic tailwind is real. The commodity endowment is real. The middle class consumption story, however delayed, is real.

What I need to ser is actual evidence that policy is correcting. A credible signal from the executive that investor protection will be respected. A legislature that wakes up and starts performing its oversight function. A Bank Indonesia that is given the operational space to defend monetary credibility without being pulled into political theater. Any one of those three things, if done with conviction, could be the catalyst that re-rates this market fast. Very fast. Because when value this deep meets a credible narrative change, the move will be violent to the upside.

“Bull or bear we all want the same thing.
Indonesia deserves better than this, and I believe it is capable of it.”

God Bless Indonesia

[Al Jazeera Breaking News @AJENews]

BREAKING: Indonesia's rupiah reached its weakest level ever against the US dollar Thursday. The rupiah is now 18,028 against the dollar, despite the central bank's efforts to support the currency.

🔴 More on https://t.co/5H0QqpggO4

[Pink Bourbon @pinkbourbon8898]

Dapat rumor beginian darimana sih? Gue pingin tau sourcenya. Biar bisa tau basis penilaiannya apa.

Karena kalau bicara MSCI standalone reclassification, itu bukan keputusan yang datang tiba tiba. Ada kriteria formal yang MSCI pake, dan setau gue Indonesia saat ini gak memenuhi threshold untuk reklasifikasi itu.

Yang MSCI liat sebelum mempertimbangkan standalone:

- Openness to foreign ownership. Indonesia masih relatif open, tidak ada capital controls yang meaningful.

- FX liquidity. IDR volatile, tapi market masih functioning, repatriation masih bisa dilakukan.

- Market accessibility. JATS masih jalan normal, settlement T+2 masih berjalan, tidak ada suspension sistemik.

- Foreign flow data. Masih ada dua arah, bukan one-way exit dengan FX lock.

Nigeria masuk standalone karena literally gbs repatriasi USD selama bertahun-tahun. Lebanon karena banking system collapse total. Russia karena sanksi memutus akses market secara paksa.

Indonesia setau gue g ada disitu.

Yang ada sekarang adalah policy uncertainty dan sentiment selloff. Painful, tapi berbeda kategori dengan structural market access failure.

Tapi tetap, darimana sourcenya??

[Rudiyanto @Rudiyanto_zh]

Per 26 Mei 2026, Asing mencatat net sell Rp 19.47 T di pasar reguler yang disebabkan aksi rebalancing MSCI, kombinasi dengan sentimen negatif akibat risiko ketidakpastian tata kelola pemerintahan

Pertanyaannya, apakah aksi jual akibat rebalancing MSCI ini, sudah UDAHAN?

[kache @yacineMTB]

you can outsource your thinking
but you cannot outsource your understanding

[Douglas Goh @dglsgh]

@ApestorNyangkut Naga naga cacing cacing

[ricky2212 @ricky_hopmans]

Sudah selesai lo mge short indo nya ? Ga ada suara lagi ?

[Jeremy @ManaByte]

And with that, Flat Earth is over.

[Michi @NekoMichiUBC]

In Chinese we have an idiom 画蛇添足 (adding legs to a painting of a snake) which refers to when someone adds unnecessary embellishments to a piece of work that deviate from the original intent, thus ruining it in the process.

[djcows @djcows]

they're benchmarking us now

[Hooman @hoomansv]

My portfolio everyday at the opening bell

[Douglas Goh @dglsgh]

@dojjunn Gak ada 1 hari lewat tanpa ngobrol sama AI LLM sekarang - di segala topic. Yang gak pake ini tiap hari, gak bakal sadar udah ketinggalan dari peers nya.

Terminator soon 🤣

[Douglas Goh @dglsgh]

Untung gw kagak begini2 amat 🤣

[Douglas A. Boneparth @dougboneparth]

On days like today, I’m glad I’m diversified across stocks, gold and bitcoin because it allows me to lose money in three totally different ways.

[Douglas Goh @dglsgh]

Mau tanggap, tapi pas baca ada “hei babi”, ah sudahlah. Buang waktu.

[Sobat Bandar @SobatBandar]

banyak yg DM gw tentang kelakuan si AH, sebut saja inisialnya andry hakim,
katanya,
dia selalu ngomong ke group VIP yg harga 13 juta itu = "kita ga pernah rekom saham, kita cuma sampaikan watchlist"

hei babi, orang rela bayar 13 juta lu pikir cuma pengen dengerin lu ngebacod di zoom doank?
orang2 pd bayar 13 juta itu pasti pengen dpt stockpick lah,
lu pikir anak TK yg cuma di kasih bacod sm gurunya dan mereka bakal seneng?

[Douglas Goh @dglsgh]

@dojjunn Ikutan 🍿