Will Raich

Your source for professional disc golf statistics, data visualizations, and predictive tournament modeling. Powered by StatMando data.

[Will Raich @DGStatMan]

📢In collaboration with @Disc_Golf_Doug, I am excited to share a new predictive model for disc golf, the Competitive Disc Golf Simulation Model (C-DGSM)!

📈Check out our methods infographic.

🔮C-DGSM's first predictions will be posted tomorrow for the LWS Open at Idlewild.

[Will Raich @DGStatMan]

@UDiscApp roughly 10,000 match play rounds will be scored from October to April for New England Team Challenge. 70 teams and 1,750 players will play at least one match per month. Please add match play scoring. If you build it, they will come.

[Will Raich @DGStatMan]

Ohn Scoggins is your DGLO Champion! 🏆

Congrats on the @DiscGolfProTour win!

[Will Raich @DGStatMan]

@SkolSwank @GreenSplatter The coverage of Paige vs Conrad is typically very different:

Paige: “She needs a forehand.”
James: “One of the best backhand / woods / putter throwers on tour.”

[Will Raich @DGStatMan]

Selection bias may be the more appropriate term, rather than response bias. Conservative voices seemed far more keen to take and share the survey relative to progressive voices.

[Will Raich @DGStatMan]

Is @PDGA membership this conservative? Or do the anti-trans survey results reflect some response bias towards the more conservative members?

Calling on the PDGA to assess response rates by state or other demographics to assess whether the survey is representative of membership.

[Steve @StatMandoSteve]

Taking a deeper look at @prez017's feature card data for 2022 feature card appearances by @statmando Official Ranking

[Disc Golf Pro Tour @DiscGolfProTour]

JohnE McCRAY with the ACE on Hole 12 during the first round of Worlds!

[Will Raich @DGStatMan]

@DoubleZeroDG Streamline Lift

[Will Raich @DGStatMan]

@DoubleZeroDG Ngl Disco Golf sounds like a good time 🕺🪩

[Steve @StatMandoSteve]

How much harder is it to win on tour? For the first time in 10+ years, the average margin of victory at MPO Elite Series/Majors is below 2 strokes.

data: @statmando

[Steve @StatMandoSteve]

At 2019 Jonesboro, MPO R2 was delayed and finished on Sunday. @Paul_McBeth, in R3, his second round of the day, shot 1082 and took home the W. Today, McBeth shot 1082 golf in his second round of the day, moving up 64 spots and is only 4 strokes back going into Championship Sunday

[Will Raich @DGStatMan]

@thediscgolfguy Baggage gallery is wilder than Hole 8 at Maple. Mayhem.

[Will Raich @DGStatMan]

For FPO players sitting outside the top 50 in @DiscGolfProTour points, here are your chances at GMC playoff spot based on points at season's end:

130 points: 2% chance
135 points: 34% chance
140 points: 87% chance
145 points: 98% chance

@statmando

[Will Raich @DGStatMan]

For MPO players sitting outside the top 100 in @DiscGolfProTour points, a final season points total exceeding 41.5 gives you a 52% chance of clinching a GMC playoff spot.

44.75+ points: 75% chance
46.13+ points: 90% chance
49+ points: 99% chance

@statmando

[Will Raich @DGStatMan]

@BenLOship @statmando @DiscGolfProTour @golden_eagle08 @ObscureSports We account for expected event participation by pulling in PDGA registration data. For GMC and MVP Open, "registration" is based on DGPT points. We assume everyone who qualifies will participate. We can't reliably track each player's intentions beyond his/her current registration.

[Will Raich @DGStatMan]

🔮Who will qualify for the @DiscGolfProTour Championship?

📊Using my Disc Golf Simulation Model, we simulated 1,000 season-end scenarios to assess the probabilities of Tour Championship qualification for every FPO competitor.

@golden_eagle08 @ObscureSports @statmando

(1/4)

[Will Raich @DGStatMan]

There are five remaining DGPT points events, including playoffs:

Des Moines Challenge (Elite Series)
Worlds (Major)
Butler County DG Classic (Silver Series)
Green Mountain Championship (Playoffs)
MVP Open (Playoffs)

USDGC will not award DGPT points.

(4/4)

[Will Raich @DGStatMan]

Expect to see significant climbs in DGPT points by Eveliina Salonen, Jen Allen, and Macie Velediaz (especially if they participate in playoff events).

Model expects that Kona Panis and Rebecca Cox may need to up their play to hold onto their DGPT Championship spots.

(3/4)