Support and resistance levels are among the simplest yet most misunderstood concepts in technical analysis. The longer a price zone holds over time, the greater its practical significance tends to be. The difference between an inexperienced trader and an experienced one lies in their approach: the former seeks the perfect level, whilst the latter observes how the market reacts within a zone of interest.
Liquidity sweeps, deviations, reclaims and structural confirmations are often the elements that allow us to distinguish a simple reaction from a high-probability opportunity.
Ultimately, support and resistance levels are not used to predict the future, but to identify areas where it is worth paying closer attention and waiting for the market to reveal its intentions.
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#BTC/USDT Technical Analysis
Timeframe H4
Type (ICT/SMC)
Overall structure visible on the H4 chart:
The chart shows a recent dominant bearish trend after a bullish distribution move higher (around 82-83k).
Several marked bearish Break of Structure (BOS) are visible, with clearly identified Order Blocks (OB) and Fair Value Gaps (FVG):
1-Day MTF OB (yellow/pink): Several institutional liquidity zones on the daily chart are affected or mitigated.
H4 OB (green/red): The green (bullish) and red (bearish) blocks show clear reaction zones.
H4 FVG (green/red): Many mitigated gaps (76% / 67% mitigated), indicating that the price has already filled a significant portion of the inefficiencies.
Current key points on the chart:
Price is rebounding from a low around 74-75k (PWL + External Low Fresh + mixed FVG).
Latest move: slight consolidation with a recent bullish BOS, but still below several OB/FVG resistance levels.
Strong psychological level: 77,196
Timeframe (end of May 2026: 6 days remaining)
Daily/Weekly: The overall structure remains in a correction phase after a broader bullish run.
May is generally neutral to slightly bearish (price around 77k vs. previous highs >80k).
End of the month: Often a rebalancing/profit-taking period.
With only 6 days remaining, there is a risk of increased volatility (possible squeeze).
Macroeconomic outlook: No obvious major catalysts this week, but monitoring of institutional flows and the DXY (Dollar Index).
Expected Bullish Scenarios (Swing/Continuation)
The current rebound from the lows shows strength (FVG 67% mitigated + External Low Fresh).
Targets: 78,000 – 78,500 (H4 OB + Unmitigated FVG)
79,000 – 80,000 (1D MTF Confluence Zone + L70 Fresh)
Extension: 82k if a clear breakout occurs above the bearish OB.
Bearish Scenarios (Continuation of Correction)
If the price loses the current support (~76,500 – 76,800), we will retest the recent lows.
Targets: 75,000 – 74,000 (PWL + Large FVG)
Extension: 72-73k (Lower liquidity zone).
Possible Trades (H4) Scalp (intraday / a few hours) Long: Rebound on fresh OB/FVG around 76,800 – 77,000 with a stop below the last low. Quick TP 77,800 – 78,200.
Short: Rejection at resistance red OB / mitigated FVG around 77,800 – 78,200. Stop above, TP around 76,500.
Swing (several days – end of week / month)
Preference for a cautious long bias as long as the price holds above 76,000-76,500.
Wait for confirmation of a clear bullish BOS on the H4 + successful retest of a green OB. Very favorable risk/reward if entered on FVG mitigation. Levels to monitor very closely: Support: 76,500 | 75,000 | 74,000
Resistance: 78,000 | 79,000 | 80,000 (critical zone)
Summary & Current Bias: Bias:
Neutral to slightly bullish in the short term on the H4 timeframe thanks to the ongoing rebound and mixed FVG. However, the overall structure remains bearish until the recent highs around 78-80k are clearly broken. The end of the month combined with low liquidity could trigger a fakeout in either direction. Risk management should be the priority.
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