In crypto, we often talk of 'impermanent loss' in the context of constant product swaps but ive been thinking recently about what might be the nature of 'permanent loss' and its associated hedges in comparison.
“I use AI to write like I use my calculator to do math” fundamentally misunderstands the human desire for truth seeking.
Calculator math is close-ended, with empirically correct answers. Writing is open-ended, with subjectively nuanced answers.
For all the fraudsters in crypto who cave to the doubters every cycle, people don’t give Saylor nearly enough credit for how unshakably he believes in his mission
When in doubt, just remember error correction is the beginning of infinity.
The #1 mistake I see among macro noobs is misunderstanding that the carry trade is about income ie spread differential when its about duration ie collateral multiplier
The original sin of MMT voodooism is assuming the cost of entry and exit are the same, as if people are idiots
We’ve actually already seen how this movie ends before
In fact, it was then called UST for a reason
Do you remember what the last ditch resort was when their Treasury collateral was worthless?
To buy Bitcoin
But it was too late
TLDR: Maximalists are ultimately just useful idiots, but that’s perfectly okay because our Nash equilibrium is ultimately aligned so we must always respect the game and the part we each play..
One underrated benefit of social media in the age of social investing: it makes sham companies increasingly easy to spot
You can learn a lot from studying the patterns behind amateur PR strategies by inept charlatans..
It’s generally healthy for markets to stabilize after a 3 sigma move, consolidate and then resume. A little drift lower is welcome imo.
Therefore Teddyfuse must return from golfing asap next week and then go to Martha’s Vineyard the following week, for the sake of the industry
This is another form of intergenerational theft (today’s capital gains extracting future labor gains by working age)
Stealing from the bond market wasn’t enough so they came for young peoples’ stocks
Generational liquidity traps.
You can’t underestimate some of the selling pressure of high performing risk assets are purely due to funding the next thing
I’ve seen this happen where best performing hedge funds become liquidity sources for funding others drawdowns.
While I don’t think we’re quite out of the woods just yet, we are at a point where conditional probabilities are mattering greatly again
This stage is required for models to fully digest then break, which is when volatility will expand and then and only then its full send…