まさ＠株勉強中 @dhalsimtwi - Twitter Profile

Japan has done something no other big economy has managed. Its debt-to-GDP ratio is falling — from a peak of 229% to 204% — and it didn't repay a thing. Its debt actually rose 11% over those five years. The method has a name most people never hear: financial repression. The idea is simple. Keep interest rates below inflation. That's the entire policy. Think about what a government earns and what it pays. It earns taxes. Taxes are a slice of everything bought, sold and earned in the country, so when inflation pushes up prices and wages, collections rise automatically. Same tax rates, bigger numbers. What it pays is interest on old debt. If the central bank pins rates down while inflation runs, that cost barely moves. So the government's income climbs year after year while its debt bill stays flat. Hold that gap open long enough and the ratio has to come down. No spending cuts, no repayment. Just time. Japan ran exactly this. In 2023, inflation was 3.3% and the Bank of Japan's policy rate was still negative — below zero. Over five years the economy in yen terms grew 20% while debt grew 11%. The ratio fell on its own. There is a loser, and it isn't foreigners. It's the Japanese saver, whose deposit earned nothing while prices rose 3% a year. The gap between what savers should have earned and what they got is precisely what the government kept. A tax nobody voted on. Now the catch. This only works if you control your creditors. Japan does. The Bank of Japan holds 48% of its government's bonds; Japanese banks, insurers and pension funds hold most of the rest. Foreigners hold 8%. When Tokyo suppresses rates, its own institutions absorb the loss. And they stay. America can't. Foreigners own 31% of US public debt — $9.2 trillion. When Washington let inflation run in 2021-22, the trick began working there too: debt fell from 133% of GDP to 119%. Then the foreign holders did what captive ones can't. They sold, and demanded more to stay. The 10-year yield crossed 5% in October 2023, the highest since 2007. Higher rates on every new bond wiped out the gains, which defeats the entire purpose. The ratio is back at 126% and climbing. So the one number that decides who can run this play isn't debt-to-GDP at all. It's the net international investment position — what a country owns abroad minus what foreigners own of it. Japan: plus ¥562 trillion, the savings of decades. America: minus $21 trillion. The first country owes itself. The second owes the world. Views are personal. Not investment advice.

hsinha1445's tweet photo. Japan has done something no other big economy has managed. Its debt-to-GDP ratio is falling — from a peak of 229% to 204% — and it didn't repay a thing. Its debt actually rose 11% over those five years.

The method has a name most people never hear: financial repression.

The idea is simple. Keep interest rates below inflation. That's the entire policy.

Think about what a government earns and what it pays. It earns taxes. Taxes are a slice of everything bought, sold and earned in the country, so when inflation pushes up prices and wages, collections rise automatically. Same tax rates, bigger numbers.

What it pays is interest on old debt. If the central bank pins rates down while inflation runs, that cost barely moves.

So the government's income climbs year after year while its debt bill stays flat. Hold that gap open long enough and the ratio has to come down. No spending cuts, no repayment. Just time.

Japan ran exactly this. In 2023, inflation was 3.3% and the Bank of Japan's policy rate was still negative — below zero. Over five years the economy in yen terms grew 20% while debt grew 11%. The ratio fell on its own.

There is a loser, and it isn't foreigners. It's the Japanese saver, whose deposit earned nothing while prices rose 3% a year. The gap between what savers should have earned and what they got is precisely what the government kept. A tax nobody voted on.

Now the catch. This only works if you control your creditors.

Japan does. The Bank of Japan holds 48% of its government's bonds; Japanese banks, insurers and pension funds hold most of the rest. Foreigners hold 8%. When Tokyo suppresses rates, its own institutions absorb the loss. And they stay.

America can't. Foreigners own 31% of US public debt — $9.2 trillion. When Washington let inflation run in 2021-22, the trick began working there too: debt fell from 133% of GDP to 119%. Then the foreign holders did what captive ones can't. They sold, and demanded more to stay. The 10-year yield crossed 5% in October 2023, the highest since 2007. Higher rates on every new bond wiped out the gains, which defeats the entire purpose. The ratio is back at 126% and climbing.

So the one number that decides who can run this play isn't debt-to-GDP at all. It's the net international investment position — what a country owns abroad minus what foreigners own of it. Japan: plus ¥562 trillion, the savings of decades. America: minus $21 trillion. The first country owes itself. The second owes the world.

Views are personal. Not investment advice.

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まさ＠株勉強中 @dhalsimtwi

8 days ago

この程度の言い訳しかできないのか… いろんな意味でひろゆき氏はおしまいだね。本当に失望した

ひろゆき

@hirox246

8 days ago

中能登の株式会社made in Japanは「日本の技術を世に出す」指針でやってます。一般論として、技術のある日本の会社が、円安で外国から買い叩かれるリスクが発生してると考えています。そこで、技術のある日本の会社に投資・広報する取組みを開始しました。

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dhalsimtwi retweeted

上條景介@D³（旧ダイン）社長

@kamijovi

9 days ago

マッチングアプリ「with」を生んだイグニスと関連会社が破産。実は2週間前から噂は聞いていたが、負債総額297億円、創業者の銭錕さんも自己破産とのことで、想像以上に規模が大きい。恐らくイグニスでの上場益や、withをベインキャピタルに売却した際の譲渡益も、すべて吹き飛んだ模様だ。債権者がいる話なので軽々しく肯定はできないが、同じ経営者として、ここまでフルベットして事業ができる性格は羨ましいし、尊敬する。きっと何年か後には、また復活するだろう。

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まさ＠株勉強中 @dhalsimtwi

9 days ago

@eleeeeeeeeeeees 裏山　5000円下さい自分も明日から招き猫通います

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まさ＠株勉強中 @dhalsimtwi

9 days ago

イグニス破産か… いろいろな夢をみていた銘柄。あれから五年とは驚く

ありゃりゃ

@aryarya

9 days ago

あのイグニスとパルスも同時に破産しているなお、同時に破産開始決定を受けたのは以下の2社。・（株）イグニス（TSRコード:138350884、法人番号:4010001216152、渋谷区）・パルス（株）（TSRコード:022976949、法人番号:4011001113554、渋谷区）

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まさ＠株勉強中 @dhalsimtwi

10 days ago

グニ、さすがに今日は一服かな

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まさ＠株勉強中 @dhalsimtwi

10 days ago

めちゃくちゃあった含み損がすごいい勢いで減り始めたのであわてて損出し

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dhalsimtwi retweeted

かりん@株

@karin_kabu

11 days ago

半導体製造装置系の銘柄、昨日もアドテス、ディスコ、東京エレクなど本命どころはかなり堅調な推移🥰メモリ系が軟調な時でも製造装置系はそこそこ底堅い時多い気がする。レーザーテックも決算直後の下落から急停止、反発してますね。半導体製造装置関連株のまとめ記事は割と最近全面リニューアルして、めちゃくちゃ長いけどぜひ読んでみて！ https://t.co/Eeky9GUssF