This was, believe it or not, a Take Two, but it was also one of the best visits I've had w/@adamtaggart in years. There's no counting out the American consumer (at least in the aggregate) but boy are there mounting pressures at the bottom 90% of that K. Share your thoughts freely
Are those worried about a consumer-driven slowdown, or perhaps even recession, too pessimistic?
Or, is there greater danger lying beneath the surface data than most are aware of
Danielle @DiMartinoBooth answers for us
WATCH: https://t.co/Eq9rv5fYnS
Hot cocoa in July?
Maybe it’s because the rest of commodities complex melted
Euro area CPI printed this morning at -0.1% MoM. Coming to America?
(Perhaps Lagarde & Warsh can politely stick to the weather on stage this morning)
About that supercycle @ChinaBeigeBook@SoberLook
As JOLTING as JOLTS headline was, recall we’re talking efficacy of @BLS_gov data.
Like NFP & U3, the response rate is in the toilet (technical term) & data conflict w/real-world alternatives
Given Quit Rate, at least Warsh won’t have to worry about wage inflation on stage today
PS. Not in @ChallengerGray June data:
All that AI spending is EXPENSIVE!
Mr. Softie @Microsoft to cut ~2.5% of overall workforce of about 220,000, or ~5,500.
“News comes as the almost-$3 trillion company has committed to spending $190 billion on AI infrastructure.”
@DowJones
“Openings-hires gap from ~1.98M last May to 2.42M (opposite of healthy conversion).
Quits also fell to 3.065M from 3.287M, w/Quit Rate stuck at 1.9% (workers are not acting like opportunity abundant).
Openings bounced, but flows say employers cautious & workers less confident.”
May openings were 7.594M versus 7.310M a year ago, but hires fell to 5.170M from 5.328M. Private hires fell to 4.811M from 4.988M, and the private hires rate dropped to 3.5% from 3.7%. That means the openings number improved while actual hiring deteriorated. The openings to hires gap widened from about 1.98M last May to 2.42M now, which is the opposite of healthy conversion.
Quits also fell to 3.065M from 3.287M, with the quits rate stuck at 1.9%, showing workers are not acting like opportunity is abundant. Construction openings rose, but construction hires fell and layoffs jumped month over month. Wholesale openings rose, but wholesale hires fell. Real estate openings rose, but real estate hires fell from 74K to 51K year over year. Small firms also showed weaker hires and quits. So openings bounced, but the actual labor flow data says employers are cautious and workers are less confident.
Boomerang incoming? AI chief driver @ChallengerGray cuts: “Tech remains epicenter of this year’s cuts. AI is dominant force as companies restructuring around it, automating roles & reallocating budgets toward new capabilities”
Ex-DOGE total cuts, 1st half -6%YoY v -43% headline.
Employers who laid off workers citing AI are already starting to regret it
Companies are rapidly changing their minds that artificial intelligence can “do it all” by rehiring employees to propel their businesses forward, as investors fret over the longevity of the ongoing AI boom happening in the financial markets.
Automaker Ford is one of the latest companies to reverse course. It is reportedly re-employing hundreds of experienced human engineers to work on quality issues automated systems couldn’t address. “Artificial intelligence is a fantastic tool, but it’s only as good as the information you use to train it,” Charles Poon, Ford’s vice president of vehicle hardware engineering, told the media. (CNBC)
Goodbye selling season. You were quite the disappointment…instead unseasonal, early-stage delinquency arrived on the scene
➕a review of the housing bill awaiting Trump’s signature and a Fed paper on levered bets in the Treasury market
https://t.co/whRRdeuzrx
Source: ICE
1185 Georgia St Vancouver, BC, Canada
Sold for $74M, a 45% haircut from its purchase price of $135M in 2022.
147K Square Feet Built 1985
-CoStar / Vancouver Market
#commercialrealestate
🚨 Neyland Networks files for chapter 11 to restructure wireless assets
NEYLAND NETWORKS LLC
📊 Assets: $1B-$10B | Liabilities: $10B-$50B | Creditors: 10,001-25,000 | Industry: Telecommunications and Media Streaming Distribution | District: Southern District of Texas
Chapter 11 – Filing Summary
_____________________________________________
Southern District of Texas • June 30, 2026
Neyland Networks LLC, a Englewood, CO-based telecommunications and media streaming distribution company, filed for chapter 11 protection on June 30, 2026 in the Southern District of Texas.
As of June 2026, the company serves as the corporate parent of DISH Wireless L.L.C. and is focused on a court-supervised restructuring involving the divestiture of spectrum assets to AT&T and SpaceX. The filing follows a period of operational shifts where the company abandoned its 5G network build-out and defaulted on wireless infrastructure leases starting in late 2025.
Key Details
_____________________________________________
– Spectrum asset divestiture value of $40B in 2026 [Source: SBA Towers II LLC (2026)]
– Workforce reduction of 500 employees in 2025 [Source: EchoStar Corporation (2025)]
– Defaulted on wireless site lease payments since December 2025 [Source: SBA Towers II LLC (2026)]
– Abandoned 5G network build-out progress in 2025 [Source: FCC Inquiry (2026)]
⚖️ Professionals
_____________________________________________
Debtor's Counsel: White & Case LLP
#Bankruptcy #Chapter11 #Telecom
*Data from court filings & verified sources. All sources should require independent verification. Not financial advice.
https://t.co/EP07pQ033j
@TheGovtHatesU@thoughtfulmoney A) LISTENING EARS -- I fully explain why markets are up IF YOU LISTEN
B) That has SQUAT to do with the economy
C) Afraid I won't be able to hear your reply...BYE.
To the points of @jimiuorio & @barryknapp I’d say that biggest drivers of Fed Hoovering up 40% of mortgages, locking in multitudes w/low rate mortgages, influx of buyers & a policy rate that puts smaller builders at a competitive disadvantage EXACERBATED by the factors you cite.
@jimiuorio@DiMartinoBooth GFC, COVID, and deportations all led to new construction inflation. Affordability went down w rising property taxes & insurance. Static wages in the same period. boomers aren't downsizing. Student loan debt weighs down affordability. Many factors contribute.
'The Risks Have Changed': Why Brookfield Is Selling Its Washington D.C.-Area Office Properties
Brookfield paid $150M for the 3 Bethesda Metro Center leasehold in 2011.
Last month, it sold for $20M, an 87% haircut.
The Washington Metropolitan Transit Authority owns the ground.
368,000 Square Feet Built 1985
#commercialrealestate
https://t.co/Ws0IifrMT3