JorJor

[JorJor @dimeec]

People don't change, they just eventually become who they really are

[Adam Livingston @AdamBLiv]

Nobody warns you. That's the sick part.

Nobody sits you down and says, hey, if you spend one weekend actually reading about money, you will lose the ability to enjoy anything for the rest of your life.

Your brother-in-law just mentions it at a barbecue. That's how it starts. Some guy holding a hot dog says "you should look into Bitcoin" and you laugh at him.

You laugh AT him.

You make the tulip joke. You feel superior for eleven more days.

Then it's 2:47 in the morning and you're on your fourth Saylor podcast and your wife thinks you're having an affair.

And in a way, you are.

You're cheating on your entire worldview.

ou came in to debunk it. That's the trap. Everyone comes in to debunk it. You wanted to find the flaw, dunk on your brother-in-law, and go back to your Vanguard target date fund like a respectable adult.

Instead you found out what happened in 1971 and now you can't make eye contact with your 401k.

Because here's what actually happens.

Bitcoin is cool and all, but you REALLY learn about the dollar. Bitcoin is fine, Bitcoin is twenty-one million and a schedule, you understand it in an afternoon. The dollar takes months, because every time you think you've hit the bottom of that thing there's a trapdoor.

The Fed just... prints it? And they gave how much to the banks in 2008? And the banks did WHAT with it?

And the guy who ran that got a MEDAL? You're up at 4am reading about the Cantillon effect like it's your kid's toxicology report.

Then comes the phase where you're insufferable.

Everyone goes through it, nobody admits it. You ruin Thanksgiving. You genuinely ruin it. Your aunt says turkey prices are crazy this year and you see your opening like a lion seeing a wounded gazelle.

Forty-five minutes later you're drawing the M2 money supply on a napkin and your mother is crying and your uncle is saying "it's not backed by anything" for the ninth time while his pension is backed by the promises of a government that's thirty-seven trillion in debt.

He's worried about YOUR risk profile.

He has unit bias so bad he'd rather own a whole Shiba Inu coin than a fraction of the hardest asset ever created, because his brain, poisoned by seventy years of fiat, thinks "whole thing cheap" beats "piece of thing good."

And the prices. God, the prices. You can't turn it off.

You're in the grocery store repricing eggs in sats. The eggs are getting cheaper in sats. Everything is getting cheaper in sats except your will to explain that to anyone.

You look at a house and you don't see a house, you see the number of Bitcoin it costs, and that number falling forever, and you realize the housing crisis is a measuring stick crisis, and you say this out loud at a dinner party, once, and now you're not invited to dinner parties.

Then the anger burns off and something worse arrives.

Clarity. You realize nobody is coming to fix this.

The people in charge KNOW. That's the part that breaks you. They're not stupid, they're incentivized.

The debt can't be paid, only inflated, and every serious person in a suit on television knows it, and their plan is to be dead before the invoice arrives.

So you buy. Coinbase, first time, hands shaking like you're doing something illegal, and the fee annoys you, and that annoyance is the last normal financial emotion you will ever feel.

You set up the DCA. You learn what a hardware wallet is. You write twelve words on steel like a doomsday prepper, because that's what you are now, except your bunker is math.

And then the loneliness. Nobody tells you about the loneliness. You've seen it. You can't unsee it.

And you're surrounded by people you love who are working forty years to fill a bathtub with the drain open, and when you point at the drain they get mad at YOU.

So you stop pointing. You just stack quietly, in the dark, waiting for the day one of them comes to you, at a barbecue, holding a hot dog, and says the words.

"Hey... you were into Bitcoin, right?"

And you smile. Because it's their turn in the barrel.

Welcome. Nobody warned me either.

[JorJor @dimeec]

@b_co_co Don’t listen to any of the morons replying to this arguing against having a right to know the cost breakdown. Everyday people get mega ripped off all the time because they are clueless. Always do your research when you’re spending $

[Cryptic Trades @CrypticTrades_]

It's time for an in-depth update on $BTC.

This will be one of the MOST IMPORTANT threads you're going to read right now on Bitcoin, so make sure you check it out.

In my previous update, I highlighted that the most likely outcome was a final corrective Wave C on the low-timeframes before an eventual reversal to the upside.

This is exactly what we're currently seeing, as Bitcoin has just formed new lows today, dropping as low as $58K.

Because of this, I'm now starting to become more bullish on the low-timeframes.

This is the first time in weeks that I've taken a more decisive bullish stance, as I've started scaling out of the hedges I took following the breakdown below the high-timeframe support range aligning with the early-April 2025 lows at $77K.

I've started rotating that capital back into my spot holdings and re-accumulating in order to position for a reversal to the upside.

On the high-timeframes, this is something I've done multiple times. I hedge when key technical breakdowns take place, then scale out of those hedges once the price reaches major high-timeframe support ranges, and then repeat the process again.

It wasn't perfect, and I wasn't trying to predict the exact bottom. The goal was simply to protect my capital, mitigate downside risk, and gradually increase my spot position over time to position myself for an eventual reversal to the upside on the high-timeframes.

Now it's time to objectively discuss what comes next.

In my view, further downside remains the most likely outcome on the low-timeframes towards the high-timeframe support range at $55K-$56K, where I believe a more durable bottoming formation is likely to develop and where the corrective Wave C I've covered in prior updates is likely to complete.

"But Luca, if you expect more downside, why are you buying now?"

Because I don't care about perfectly timing the bottom.

I care about accumulating assets that I believe will be worth significantly more in the coming months and years.

I believe Bitcoin will be trading above current levels 12 months from now, and with a major high-timeframe support range sitting near the current price, I believe the risk-reward setup is becoming really good, with relatively limited downside compared to the potential upside.

But let's move away from the "bullish hopium" some of you may call, and let's look at the objective data.

Looking at liquidation data, we can see that on an 8% move either higher or lower, there are currently roughly five times more shorts than longs.

That tells us that most of the long liquidation has already took place and that the market is now heavily positioned on the bearish side.

But anyone can look at a liquidation chart.

The real alpha is in the Velo data.

That's where a very interesting setup is developing.

First, while the price has been falling, Open Interest has continued moving higher.

For those unfamiliar, Open Interest measures the total amount of open perpetual positions, so both longs and shorts.

At first glance, you could argue that these are simply desperate bulls doubling down on their longs to avoid liquidations.

But that's where Funding Rates become important, as they measure the ratio between longs and shorts.

Funding Rates have continued moving lower while Open Interest has increased.

That tells us that these are not aggressive longs entering the market.

They're aggressive shorts.

Bears are doubling down on their positions and betting on a continuation lower.

And while they may be right in the short term, I believe they will be very wrong on the mid-term.

But that's not even the most interesting part.

The most important confluence is coming from Spot Volume.

When we look at the price action over the last couple of days, every major downside wick that marked a local bottom also aligned with a spike in Spot Volume.

And that means buying pressure.

The type of buying pressure that only larger players can create on the low-timeframes.

While retail investors have been capitulating over the last couple of months, whales and institutional investors appear to be absorbing that sell pressure.

And this is where my broader thesis comes into play.

I believe that the series of rising wedges and untapped lows that have repeatedly developed on the low-timeframes have been part of a process designed to create an artificial counterparty.

This is a thesis I've discussed before.

In fact, I covered this exact same concept back in April of last year when Bitcoin formed a major bottom.

That thesis helped me identify the reversal and begin scaling out of hedges while rotating capital back into spot holdings, the same thing I'm doing right now.

This is the thread I shared at the time:
https://t.co/XQbySirHXJ

Today, we're seeing a very similar structure.

A series of untapped lows developing on the low-timeframes, followed by liquidation cascades that liquidate impatient investors and specifically retail traders.

The difference is that this cycle has taken much longer to play out.

For those unfamiliar with these concepts, let me explain.

Let's say you're a market maker.

Every time you want to buy, you need someone willing to sell. If nobody wants to sell at the current price, the price moves higher until sellers appear.

But that's not what you want.

You don't want to buy high. You want to buy low.
So the first step is creating fear.

You make people believe the market is dead. You make them chase other opportunities that appear stronger in the short term. You make them question the positions they accumulated near the bottom.

That's the easy part.

And we've seen exactly that over the last couple of months, with crypto massively underperforming equities.

This is something I'll cover in an upcoming thread on liquidity rotation, so stay tuned for that.
The harder part is engineering liquidity.

In other words, creating an artificial counterparty.
Because if some participants still refuse to sell, you need a mechanism that forces them to sell.

That's where liquidation cascades and untapped lows come into play.

Whenever a series of untapped lows develops, a large amount of liquidity begins to accumulate underneath them, as many traders place their stop-losses below the nearest swing low.

The more untapped lows there are, the larger the pool of downside liquidity becomes.

And a stop-loss from a long position is ultimately a forced sell order.

Those forced sell orders become the liquidity that larger participants can absorb.

In anticipation of bearish headlines, which repeatedly emerge around Trump's announcements, market makers build these liquidity pools because they provide the fuel needed for accumulation.

This is why I see a very strong correlation between the current environment and what happened last year before Bitcoin went on to make new all-time highs.

So because of this, I remain bullish on $BTC at these levels and because of this, I have started to re-accumulate $BTC.

[JorJor @dimeec]

@DeathyDL There is too much team fighting and rotations are way too easy. There needs to be punishment for (bad rotations) where if you rotate for no reason, you get behind. Currently, you can run around the map with no reason and not get punished… 0 strategy involved

[JorJor @dimeec]

@DeathyDL I like this idea. The game is stale. I like macro, and as of now, deadlock feels like an arena style fighter game instead of a MOBA.
They could make urn worth less, make walkers worth significantly more, slow movement speed across the whole map (characters, zipline speed, etc).

[Topz @tophz_]

Game of Thrones set the bar so high that nothing I’ve watched since has come close. Am I missing a series that can actually compete?

[JorJor @dimeec]

@nottellingyou73 Then post your short position if you’re that confident instead of rattling on here. Back your words up or don’t post at all no one cares what you think if you can’t back it up

[JorJor @dimeec]

@PeterSchiff What is the reason you want BTC to fail so bad? Is it because you’re in Gold?

[JorJor @dimeec]

@fineokay_ This was a great patch

[JorJor @dimeec]

@fineokay_ Hmm sounds like the urn needs reworked completely..

[JorJor @dimeec]

@Weak3n @BIackEyeSMITE Seeing this is the smite community dear lord is it cringe lol can’t imagine wanting to be apart of that. Everyone is like an actual child and soft as fuck😂

[JorJor @dimeec]

@rattecs Drones

[JorJor @dimeec]

@GeneticSaber Game legit blows rn lol i want it to be good

[JorJor @dimeec]

Child sacrifice is still happening in 2026 it’s now just made to look “normal” through abortion. All this is is modern child sacrifice. Sick world knowing so many people have been convinced abortion is acceptable and not murder

[Reddit Lies @reddit_lies]

God help us...

[Tad Anac @anac_tad]

@bluewmist i've been at rock bottom many times in my life

i thought of life as waves on the ocean

up's & downs

me rising & falling with em

storms brew
& you think you'll die

you fall.. & sink
but we are like corks
& have to rise

eventually the storm subsides

enjoy the ride

😎

[Rep. Anna Paulina Luna @RepLuna]

Maybe not a popular take but I am calling for this guy to be pardoned. Unless the DOJ plans on going after all the crooks in congress currently insider trading, this is simply skewed justice. There is no “justice” when guys like this get the book thrown at him yet members are illegally profiting every day.

I don’t agree with what he did and he should be required to disgorge all the profits however, unless the DOJ plans on doing Congress next, this is not justice.

[BuBBliK @k1rallik]

> be Elon Musk
> 1971. South Africa. nobody cares
> bullied so bad you end up in the hospital
> dad calls you worthless on the way home
> 12 years old. write a game. sell it for $500
> move to Canada alone at 18
> Stanford accepts you. quit after 2 days
> sleep on a couch. build Zip2. sell for $22M
> build PayPal. sell for $180M
> spend every dollar on rockets and electric cars
> 2008. both companies nearly dead. same week
> last launch. last dollar. it works
> land rockets on drone ships in the ocean
> put humans back in space for America
> buy Twitter for $44B. everyone says you're insane

the boy who slept on a couch is now the richest human being on the planet. $840 billion. no one in history has ever come close

[JorJor @dimeec]

@SSGELLEON This is 100% true, I never even came close to enjoying Smite 2 the way I loved Smite 1

[Nic0le @nicole_clash]

“Why would we let AI take our jobs and rely on the government?”

What people don’t realize is, AI is GOING to take your jobs, most of them. It’s already starting.

And unless the government is willing to SHOOT every single person that uses AI (unrealistic), most traditional jobs will be more efficiently done by an AI or an automation.

It is incredibly naive to think that “bombing the data centers” will stop the progression. You can shut down all the major AI labs today and it would barely make a difference.

I can go on and on about why yes, the AI and the robots are in fact coming for your jobs. If you knew what I knew, you would believe me.

For the purpose of this argument, let’s just assume that I am right, that AI is going to take the majority of jobs.

When people lose their jobs, most people are gonna be royally fucked. They have rent to pay, kids to take care of. Food, water, etc. We need the government to step in. The alternative is, people die. Or they resort to stealing, looting, etc.

“But if the government pays everyone, that’s communism/ socialism!”

Wrong. If the government shuts down the free market, and gave everyone food water and shelter, that would be communism.

It is infinitely better for the government to give people cash than raw resources. It lets the average person have the purchasing power to shape the free market.

Why is the distinction important?

Because the beauty of capitalism is, it pushes innovation and surfaces the best products to consumers. It lets the average person be able to start their own business.

For example, suddenly there are more artists in the world. More musicians. More game developers. The people having cash in their hands means that they can use it to support their favorite art, music, games.

“I doubt the government is actually gonna pay people, they’re corrupt and evil.”

Yes, the government is corrupt. But what you have to realize is, even the government has incentives.

When AI increases the efficiency of every single company, there will be more taxes collected from the corporations (see below tweet).

It is in the government’s best interest to reinvest that money back into the economy in the form of UBI/ UHI.

Most people who are against what I’m saying, and what @elonmusk said, assumes that the choice is between

“AI taking our jobs and we rely on the government.” vs “We keep our jobs.”

That is not what the choice is though. The real question is, what should the government do to make this brutal transition period the least painful as possible?

It gets very very nuanced, but it absolutely has to start with the government giving people cash. That is the only way.

The alternative is a communist police state with people starving, dying, looting, and rioting. And absolutely no one, not even the government, wants that.

[Penny2x @imPenny2x]

99% of people really do not understand abundance as Elon describes it.

The fundamental reason is that they don’t understand compound growth.

Same people who would probably pick 1 million dollars today over a penny that doubles in value every day for 30 days.

It’s a bad choice by the way. You lose out on millions.

Imagine if that doubling object was a labor producing robot instead of a penny.

Compounding labor. It’s actually crazy if you try and wrap your mind around it.

So Elon mentions Universl High Income and the midwits flip a lid.

“The elites won’t share”

You don’t get it. They won’t need to share. They will make everything so cheap, it is effectively free.

Charities will have immense resources to distribute.

Unfathomable intelligence will exist to help optimize production and distribution.

An unfathomably large labor pool will exist that operates on solar power exclusively.

The public work projects that are erected will be unseen before levels of breathtaking.

I think we are incredibly blessed to steward this new age of abundance.

Can you see it now?

Can you see the future?