#Bitcoin
The Big Sunday Report
BTC 7-Box Structure: All We Need to Know
Congratulations to everyone who followed us with the boxes. The 7-Box structure remains intact. Box 5 is complete, and Box 6 is now active.
This is the phase where the market stops giving clean signals to the majority and starts applying real pressure. The 60K region is the key line for now. As long as it holds, BTC can still squeeze toward 65–66K, but I would not treat that as recovery. I see it more as liquidity being cleared before the next leg lower.
This is exactly how Box 6 should behave. It is not supposed to be a straight-line collapse. It is supposed to be violent drops, sharp rallies, lower highs, failed repairs, and continuation. Bulls will think every bounce is the reversal. Bears will get squeezed hard enough to question the thesis. Then the market continues doing what the structure already mapped.
The biggest mistake right now is believing 60K is the bottom. I don’t think it is. I think 60K is the trapdoor into Box 6.
The real target is not 58K. The real target remains the CBB zone: 40–45K. CBB means Confirmed BlackRock Bottom. This is the zone where the ETF-cycle structure was seeded, where the institutional cost basis was built, and where Bitcoin needs to return before the next real expansion can begin.
That is why I am not treating 60K as the bottom. I am treating it as the door into the final phase.
Every major bear market ends with a catalyst. In 2022, it was FTX. In 2018, it was the Bitcoin Cash hash war. This cycle will likely have its own event as well. It could be a major leveraged BTC holder coming under stress, a structural issue inside an exchange, or a macro shock that nobody priced correctly.
The obvious pressure point remains the MSTR-type leveraged BTC structure. When these positions start to unwind, price usually does not move slowly. It moves suddenly, and that is what creates the final flush.
My path from here is simple. 60K can hold temporarily and give a squeeze into 65–66K. After that, I expect a lower high, a break of the white line, and a move into the 55–58K region during the June–July window.
After that, a summer relief rally can follow. But if that rally fails below 75–76K, the final markdown into 40–45K becomes the main path into September–October.
That remains my macro bottom window.
Box 6 is active. CBB remains the target.
Follow the boxes. Not the noise.
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All #Bitcoin newcomers will soon learn a very valuable lesson.
Buying the bottom is way harder than what you think.
Every day there'll be a new FUD, which will force you to wait for another dump.
Bears will start going after every company, and you'll think it's the end of the crypto market.
Last cycle, when FTX crashed, people started to FUD about Binance bankruptcy, Grayscale implosion, and USDT crash.
None of that happened, and Bitcoin pumped 8x in the next 3 years.
This time won't be any different.
THE BIG SUNDAY REPORT
BTC 7-Box Structure: The Pressure Phase
The last two weeks were about the bounce. This week is about pressure.
BTC failed to turn the reaction into repair, swept to 58.1K, the lowest print of this cycle, and sits back near 60K. The level is not the story. The phase is.
This is Box 6. Not "price lower." It is the phase after the market fails to repair, where old support turns unstable, bounces lose follow through, and the crowd keeps trying to trade the last bull market inside a damaged structure. The market that took BTC higher is not the market we are trading now.
A reaction bounce is caused by positioning. A real repair is caused by demand. BTC has shown reaction. It has not shown repair.
Two forces are now pulling against each other.
Pulling down is distribution. ETFs have been net sellers, roughly 6 billion out in 30 days. The MSTR type leveraged structure now trades below the value of its own Bitcoin, cost basis near 75.6K, more than 13 billion underwater. That supply overhang drags price toward the cost basis zone. It has not capitulated yet. That is the flush the cycle still owes.
Pulling up is liquidity. The Fed ended QT late last year and its balance sheet has been expanding again through 2026. Not QE, but the draining stopped. Global M2 is grinding higher. Liquidity leads price, and liquidity turning up while sentiment sits in extreme fear is fuel for relief rallies, not the signature of a final low.
So the screen is split. Distribution says down to 40 to 45K. Liquidity says the pressure is easing. Anyone telling you only one side is selling you a position, not analysis.
That 40 to 45K zone is the CBB. It is where the ETF cycle cost basis was built, and where a deeper reset makes sense if summer repair fails. Galaxy's model agrees. Only 4 of 13 historical bottom signals have fired, and the strongest, price below cost basis and a capitulation flush, have not happened.
Every cycle ends with an event. FTX in 2022. The hash war in 2018. The thing everyone assumed was solid is the thing that cracks, and the crack is what clears the market. This cycle has not had its event yet, and the obvious pressure point is the one we keep naming. The MSTR structure is underwater on its own stack, the premium gone. That does not unwind quietly. When a forced holder delevers, price gaps, because forced selling does not wait for clean levels.
And the part most people get backwards. The final flush is not just a price event, it is a belief event. The last leg down has to make Bitcoin look dead, turn the headlines from buy the dip to it's over, make the people who held through everything finally give up. That disbelief is not the risk to the bottom. It is the requirement for it. Bottoms are built on the moment the crowd stops caring. We are not there yet.
This is why we run the two lows framework. The summer low sets up a relief rally, and liquidity is the fuel for it. Reclaim 75 to 76K with real acceptance and the bull case wins, 40 to 45K comes off the table, and we say so without ego. Fail below 75 to 76K and the final markdown into 40 to 45K becomes the path into September to October. One level decides it.
For alts, simple. When BTC sits in a pressure phase, alt strength is fragile. Higher beta names can bounce fast, but if BTC loses structure, correlation takes over and green candles become liquidity traps. The question is not what is pumping. It is what holds structure while BTC is weak. That is how the next cycle's leaders reveal themselves, during the stress, not the clean bull phase.
The job now is not to guess the next candle. It is to classify the phase. Reacting, repairing, distributing, flushing, or building a base. The honest answer is still reaction and pressure, not repair.
The market is not dead. A dead market has no bid. An unhealthy market has bounces that cannot hold. That is where BTC is.
BTC Monthly Box Update
This is the move we have been waiting for.
We have been saying for days that the bounce into 66K–68K was not full repair. It was the lower-high test inside Box 6.
Now the chart is confirming it.
The sequence is clean:
59K sweep played out.
63K–64K reaction target was reached.
66K–68K decision zone was tested.
Price failed to build acceptance.
The lower-high rejection is now confirmed.
BTC is now moving into the Jun 20–27 second-low attempt window.
This is why we did not chase the bounce.
The market made the move look safe, pulled late longs in after the retest, then rejected the repair zone. Those longs are now being cleared as price moves back toward the base.
That is Box 6 behavior.
The method behind this was not guessing the candle. It was reading the phase.
Bearish big structure.
Reaction bounce into resistance.
Lower-high timing window.
Liquidity below price.
Failed acceptance at the repair zone.
When timing, level, and reaction align, the box gives the path before the move becomes obvious.
Where we are now:
BTC is no longer in the bounce phase.
It is now in the downside confirmation phase.
Price is testing the 59K–60K base again. This level matters because it was the first reaction zone after the sweep. If buyers cannot defend it cleanly now, the deeper June–July liquidity path opens.
Key levels:
59K–60K: current base retest
58K: first downside sweep
56K–57K: main June–July liquidity target
54K: extension risk if 56K–57K fails
Upside levels:
63K–63.5K: first reclaim level
64K–65K: reaction resistance
66K–68K: failed decision zone
70K–72.5K: reassessment only if reclaimed cleanly
Base case from here:
If BTC fails to reclaim 63K–63.5K and stays heavy below 64K, the path remains toward 58K first, then 56K–57K.
A bounce from 59K–60K can happen, but unless it reclaims the broken levels, it is only another reaction, not repair.
Final read:
The monthly box is playing out.
Box 5 is complete.
Box 6 is active.
The lower-high has rejected.
The second-low attempt is now active.
56K–57K remains the main liquidity target if 59K–60K fails cleanly.
We have been calling this structure before the move.
Respect the box. Ignore the crowd.
SPX6900 0.50$ —>0.55$ next week👀!
We know something that you don’t know!✍️
@TwineXpicks ⏳
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three days ago we mapped BTC for the month - levels, windows, the whole thing
since then it's printed line by line:
— 59.5K low held at the base zone ✅
— 63-64K first target tagged ✅
— price now pressing into 66-67K, the exact zone I flagged for the lower high
nothing improvised. it's tracking the map
now the part that matters: 66-67K is the decision point. clean rejection here and the structure rolls over into late June. that's the call I'm watching live
VIP had this earlier, with the entries and invalidation for every leg. the public map is already printing — check it yourself 👇
https://t.co/5WpHwdgsy8
BTC Update - the next two weeks mapped
this is the close-up view of where we are. the bounce we called is playing out. here's the full window breakdown for what's ahead so you know exactly what to watch
Jun 10-13: base decision zone at 59-60K. invalidation is a daily close below 59K. so far it held
Jun 13-18: reaction bounce window. first target 63-64K, possible extension into 66-67K. this is where we are right now, price is reacting exactly on schedule
Jun 16-23: lower-high and distribution window. key resistance at 66-67K, stronger repair test if it pushes to 70-72.5K. this is where the bounce most likely tops and rolls over
Jun 20-27: second low attempt. expected range 56-60K if the bounce fails
Jun 24-Jul 7: deeper structural low window. main target 56-57K with extension risk toward 54K. this is the big one, where the cycle work points to the next major low. invalidation here is a clean close and acceptance above 66-67K, and fully dead if price reclaims and holds 70-72.5K. a wick into resistance doesn't count, only a close that holds
the read: we're in the bounce phase. enjoy it for what it is, a reaction, not a reversal. the 66-67K zone is where we expect the lower high. every level above is exit liquidity. the structure still points lower into late June and early July
we let the bounce show its hand, watch 66-67K for rejection, and keep our eyes on the deeper low window. nothing about this changes the bigger picture, the bear isn't done
@TwineXpicks
https://t.co/ztGHYQNxZT
BTC Update - the next two weeks mapped
this is the close-up view of where we are. the bounce we called is playing out. here's the full window breakdown for what's ahead so you know exactly what to watch
Jun 10-13: base decision zone at 59-60K. invalidation is a daily close below 59K. so far it held
Jun 13-18: reaction bounce window. first target 63-64K, possible extension into 66-67K. this is where we are right now, price is reacting exactly on schedule
Jun 16-23: lower-high and distribution window. key resistance at 66-67K, stronger repair test if it pushes to 70-72.5K. this is where the bounce most likely tops and rolls over
Jun 20-27: second low attempt. expected range 56-60K if the bounce fails
Jun 24-Jul 7: deeper structural low window. main target 56-57K with extension risk toward 54K. this is the big one, where the cycle work points to the next major low. invalidation here is a clean close and acceptance above 66-67K, and fully dead if price reclaims and holds 70-72.5K. a wick into resistance doesn't count, only a close that holds
the read: we're in the bounce phase. enjoy it for what it is, a reaction, not a reversal. the 66-67K zone is where we expect the lower high. every level above is exit liquidity. the structure still points lower into late June and early July
we let the bounce show its hand, watch 66-67K for rejection, and keep our eyes on the deeper low window. nothing about this changes the bigger picture, the bear isn't done
@TwineXpicks
https://t.co/ztGHYQNxZT
14th–18th is the local bounce window.
63K–64K first.
66K–67K if it extends.
The trap is calling that repair too early.
Real risk comes after, during Jun 16–23, where a lower-high rejection can send BTC back toward 56K–57K liquidity.
$BTC
With the 14th approaching, paying close attention to the narrative will be crucial in assessing what is likely to unfold over the remainder of this month.
If a bullish narrative emerges, a reversal after the 14th becomes likely.
Of course, this is simply based on a pattern that has been repeating over the past 10 months.
Initial rejection from the range lows confirmed.
Looks like bulls want to have another go at it though.
LTF higher low into attempt number two.
Reject there again, and we likely roll over into a new cascade downwards.
$BTC