dingerderby.io

⚾ Home Run Predictions
📊 Data-driven edges
💣 We call bombs, not games

[dingerderby.io @dingerderby_io]

Big news: the official Dinger Derby app is almost here.

One home for all of it. Daily picks delivered clean. Live ROI and P&L you can actually watch move. Status updates the second they drop.

Coming soon to the App Store and Google Play.

The model has been cooking. Now the experience catches up.

#DingerDerby #MLB

[dingerderby.io @dingerderby_io]

Where does it end up? Our estimate*: roughly 5,760 home runs by the final out,
which would be the 4th biggest HR season since 2016.

If the second half looks anything like the first, there are a lot of dingers
(and a lot of value) left on the table.

*Projected estimate based on current pace and 2016-2025 rest-of-season rates.
Past results do not guarantee future performance.

[dingerderby.io @dingerderby_io]

The ball is flying in July.

MLB hitters have launched 3,330 homers through July 11. That is the third most
through this date in the last decade, just 13 behind 2017's pace.

And July is doing the heavy lifting: 2.74 HR per game this month vs 2.28 the
rest of the season. Hottest July rate since the record 2019 year.

[dingerderby.io @dingerderby_io]

More dingers means more value in the HR prop market, and our model has been
cashing all season.

Since Opening Day: +2,250 units across our picks. Every tier is in profit.

All-Star: +46.7% ROI
Pro: +34.3% ROI
Rookie: +8.6% ROI

[dingerderby.io @dingerderby_io]

League meta check: exit velo slipped to 87.7 mph over the last 7 days, down from 88.1 the month before. Hard hit rate fell too, 38.9% to 37.4%. And yet HRs per game ticked up to 2.63 from 2.60, with HR per PA flat at 3.43%. Contact quality cooling, homers holding. When surface stats and outcomes split, books lag behind. We track the meta so you don't have to. 94 value bets on today's 12-game board, top edge +13.01 points. #MLB #DingerDerby #HRProps

[dingerderby.io @dingerderby_io]

This week's free pick: Lawrence Butler to go yard, +600 at BetParx (ATH @ DET).

Model win prob: 21%. Book implies 14.3%. That is +6.72 points of edge and the No. 3 value play on today's 64-bet slate.

The case: Troy Melton has served up 16 homers in just 155 career batters faced (10.3%), and 41.8% of everything he throws is a four-seamer at 96.8. Detroit is baking at 88.6F for first pitch.

Butler is our one public play. Full board is live.

#MLB #DingerDerby #HomeRun

[dingerderby.io @dingerderby_io]

Tuesday means we hunt the arms most likely to leak one.

Michael Lorenzen at Dodger Stadium: 13.03% career HR/BF, sitting 93.8 on the four-seam and 93.1 on the sinker. 86.5F with wind out around 8.7 mph. Model max HR prob 36.1%, the top mark on the whole slate.

Andrew Abbott in Cincinnati: 14.76% career HR/BF on a 47.8% four-seam diet at 92.7. Model tops him at 33.6%.

Free pick lives elsewhere: Brandon Nimmo, +620 at Texas.

#MLB #DingerDerby #MLBBets

[dingerderby.io @dingerderby_io]

Monday. 7 games on the board tonight, and the ball carries in three parks.

TB (NYY in): 87.9°F, wind out at 9.4 mph.
LAD (COL in): 84.5°F, wind out at 8.8 mph.
SF (TOR in): a cool 65.4°F, but Oracle wind is howling out at 13.1 mph.

The model ran the slate and flagged 39 value plays. Long week ahead. This is where it starts.

Full board is live.

#MLB #DingerDerby #HomeRun

[dingerderby.io @dingerderby_io]

Free pick is live. Garrett Mitchell to go deep, MIL @ AZ.

+820 at DraftKings. Our model says 26.6% to homer against a 10.9% implied. That's +15.7 points of edge, our No. 1 value play out of 82 today.

Eduardo Rodriguez has served up 42 HR in 330 batters faced (12.7%), leaning on a 43.9% four-seam that plays right into Mitchell's swing. Mitchell has 5 HR in his last 92 PA. First pitch in Arizona: 111.9 degrees, and hot air carries.

Full slate in bio.

#MLB #DingerDerby #Brewers

[dingerderby.io @dingerderby_io]

Free pick, and it's the #1 value play on our entire board.

Garrett Mitchell to go deep, MIL @ AZ. +600 at BetParX.

Model says 28.8% to homer vs an implied 14.3%. That's +14.53 points of edge, tops among 95 value plays today.

Merrill Kelly has served up HRs on 15.47% of batters faced (54 in 349) and lives soft: 25.5% changeups, 23.6% four-seamers. Mitchell has 5 HR in his last 90 PA and already smoked a 106.8 mph fly off Kelly this April that died at the track. First pitch in 108.7F Arizona heat.

#MLB #DingerDerby #MLBHR

[dingerderby.io @dingerderby_io]

Honest scoreboard. Last 7 days, Pro tier went 4-36 on straights. Down 15.8 units on 47 risked, -33.6% ROI.

Not our week. But the edge shows up over time, and it's already turning: +2.8 then +9.0 the last two days, plus Kyle Karros cashing at +880 for 8.8 units.

Variance cuts both ways. Better days coming.

Today's free pick: Konnor Griffin, +600, 26.5% to go deep vs Foster Griffin. That's +12.23 points of edge.

#MLB #DingerDerby #HRProps

[dingerderby.io @dingerderby_io]

League power is quietly cooling.

Last 7 days: barrel rate down to 7.5% from 7.9%, and HR/game slipped to 2.54 from 2.65.

Bat speed is flat (71.8) and exit velo barely moved. This is contact quality softening, not swing effort. Fewer barrels means fewer dingers, yet a lot of books are still pricing last month's heat.

That gap is where we live. We track the meta so you bet ahead of it.

#MLB #DingerDerby #MLBProps

[dingerderby.io @dingerderby_io]

Free pick of the week.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to homer vs Freddy Peralta (NYM @ TOR): +560 at FanDuel.

Our model says 37.2%. FanDuel's number implies 15.2%. That is +22.1 points of edge, the No. 1 value play among our 90 today.

The case: Peralta has allowed 57 homers across 369 batters faced (15.45%), and he leans on his fastball (52.9% of his pitches). Last time these two met, Vlad scorched one at 113.2 mph. Now add 95.6 degrees at Rogers Centre with the wind pushing out at 8.7 mph.

Model probability, not a promise. Full slate in bio.

#MLB #DingerDerby #BlueJays

[dingerderby.io @dingerderby_io]

@KBaspo We are actively looking into this. Planning to have it fully repaired tomorrow.

[dingerderby.io @dingerderby_io]

Top value play on the board today. Our #1 of 81.

Drake Baldwin to go yard, ATL @ SF, +550 at BetRivers.

The model has him at 32.3% to leave the park against a 15.4% implied. That's +16.9 points of edge, the best number on today's slate.

Robbie Ray is a fastball-first lefty (49% four-seamers) who has surrendered 46 homers in 373 career batters faced. That's a 12.3% HR rate. Add Oracle Park with 16 mph wind blowing straight out at 74 degrees.

Only 3 plate appearances of history between them. Lots of runway.

Full free pick is up. #MLB #DingerDerby #MLBPicks

[dingerderby.io @dingerderby_io]

32.8% to go yard. The book says 12.8%.

That is the free pick: Colby Thomas vs Reid Detmers, ATH @ LAA, +680 on FanDuel. Nearly 20 points of edge (+19.99), and our #1 value play out of 70 today.

Detmers is a lefty leaning on the 4-seam (44.7%) and slider (30.6%), and he has served up 22 HR in 318 career batters faced (6.9%). Thomas keeps barreling him: 101.8 and 100.8 mph in their last two meetings, zero luck to show for it.

76 in Anaheim, wind blowing out near 11 mph. Conditions to carry.

#MLB #DingerDerby #HomeRun

[dingerderby.io @dingerderby_io]

7-day Pro recap, and we'll be straight with you: down 3.85 units, -8.4% ROI on 46 risked. Straight record sits at 5-34, a 12.8% hit rate.

That's variance, not a broken model. Brandon Marsh (+900) still cashed 9 units this window, and we opened with a +10 unit day.

We trust the edge over a long sample. Better days are coming.

Today's free pick is live. #MLB #DingerDerby #HomeRuns

[dingerderby.io @dingerderby_io]

Barrels are cooling, and it shows up in the dingers.

Last 7 days (6/18 to 6/24): barrel rate 7.5%, down from 7.8% baseline. HR per game slipped to 2.42 from 2.53.

The wrinkle? Bat speed is actually UP, 72.0 mph vs 71.8. Hitters are swinging harder but squaring fewer up. More swing, less barrel, fewer HRs.

We track the meta so you bet it right. Today's free pick: Austin Wells at Fenway, +650 on BetMGM, our model has him 23.3% to go yard.

#MLB #DingerDerby #MLBProps

[dingerderby.io @dingerderby_io]

Free pick of the week.

Riley Greene to go deep, NYY @ DET. The target is Ryan Weathers: 30 HR allowed in 249 career batters faced, a 12.05% clip, and a lefty who pumps his four-seam 33.7% of the time at 96.5.

Greene has 5 HR over his last 116 plate appearances. First pitch in Detroit at 79F, and the ball carries.

Model says 23.1% to leave the yard. BetRivers has him at +525 (16% implied). That is +7.06 points of edge, our 4th-best value on a 59-bet board.

#MLB #DingerDerby #MLBPicks

[dingerderby.io @dingerderby_io]

Shane Baz headlines tonight.

12.86% career HR/BF (45 in 350), fastball-first: 41.8% four-seamers at 96.4 mph. That heat plays in the air, and tonight it plays into a 78.7 degree LAA night with wind out at 8.4 mph. Model tops him at 30.0% HR prob, highest on the slate.

Robbie Ray at SF too: 12.57% career HR/BF, nearly half four-seamers, 14 mph wind straight out at Oracle.

Free teaser: Jahmai Jones vs Carlos Rodón, +680 at DraftKings, 21.3% to go yard (8.5 pts edge).

#MLB #DingerDerby #MLBPicks

[dingerderby.io @dingerderby_io]

@BigA_524 Yup

[dingerderby.io @dingerderby_io]

Monday slate. 13 games on the board, and the ball is going to travel.

Tampa Bay tops the carry chart: 94.5°F with the wind blowing straight out at 11.0 mph.
Washington close behind: 92.6°F, wind out at 10.6 mph.
Anaheim joins them: 78.3°F, wind out at 9.4 mph.

5 parks with the wind blowing out tonight. The model has already flagged 66 value plays across the board. Free pick and full slate are live. Long week starts here.

#MLB #DingerDerby #HomeRun