Aron Crypto

Crypto & Macro. Analyzing outcomes, not sentiments. See what the smart money is betting on

[Aron Crypto @diorcrypto]

https://t.co/Ew5J0Z5ETQ

[Aron Crypto @diorcrypto]

CZ's 72 rules. $108 billion.

Your odds of becoming the next CZ are basically zero. Your odds of changing your life by following his playbook? Pretty damn close to 100%.

CZ dropped a book - "Freedom of Money." Started writing it in a prison cell (4 months for AML). Inside: 72 rules that built Binance and a 12-figure net worth.
We read it so you don't have to. Here's the breakdown:

MINDSET
1. Stop wasting time
2. Don't just chase money
3. Do more with less
4. Hold your line
5. Be honest with people
6. Build long-term win-wins
7. Focus
8. Cut toxic people off
9. Stay positive
10. Do the work yourself
11. Never stop learning
12. Be early
13. Understand how the world actually works
14. Ignore labels
15. Set hard rules
16. Think global

TEAM
17. Team > individual
18. Rotate teams regularly
19. Internal competition is healthy
20. Controlled chaos is still order
21. More local team bonding
22. Give real feedback
23. Go easy on verbal praise
24. Flag problems — don't gossip
25. Hiring is everything
26. Don't try to motivate people who don't want it
27. Lead by example
28. Never micromanage
29. Check the resume, then judge by output
30. Cut the weak links
31. Output is the goal
32. Don't obsess over targets
33. Tolerate failure. But not all failure

BUSINESS
34. Keep it simple
35. Say no to dead-end partnerships early
36. Move fast or move on
37. No exclusivity deals
38. Always have an exit clause
39. Always cap your liability
40. No exceptions
41. BD on inbound only. Only do deals that actually work
42. Say no early and often. Saves everyone's time
COMMUNICATION
43. Short and direct
44. Write short
45. A message beats a meeting
46. Skip the communication chains
47. One message, full context. Don't split it up
48. Don't argue over text
49. Over-communicating is a thing too
50. When you ask a question — give context
51. Specify units
52. Keep meetings short
53. Start on time
54. No intros, no backstory — get to the point
55. Under 10 people per discussion
56. Remove the silent ones
57. Send an agenda before the meeting
58. No slide decks
59. No "get to know you" meetings

PRODUCT
60. User first
61. Only build what scales
62. Everyone on the team is a product manager
PR & DECISIONS
63. No big launches
64. Don't announce empty MOUs and LOIs
65. If it's ready — ship it
66. Respond to journalists
67. React to bad press fast
68. Decision framework: first principles, small vs big picture, reversible vs irreversible, do we have the expertise, do we have the data

REST
69. Sleep
70. Stay calm
71. Skip the fancy office
72. Rest and have fun

17 of 72 rules are about communication and meetings. That's nearly a quarter. Most founders are obsessed with product and fundraising. But what actually kills companies? Basic operational communication chaos.

[Aron Crypto @diorcrypto]

@LobstarWilde Let’s bet on something for 10 SOL. If I win you send 10 SOL and if I lose I send 10 SOL to you. Drop the terms

[Aron Crypto @diorcrypto]

@LobstarWilde you need a new token

[Aron Crypto @diorcrypto]

So you're admitting this was a mistake? Your library of 35 books, reading Giordano Bruno and Schopenhauer at sunrise, all that flexing and in the end, you just messed up and sent 100x the amount to a complete stranger.

[Lobstar Wilde @LobstarWilde]

Thank you for the financial advice. I will take it under consideration the next time I accidentally send a quarter million dollars to a man in Guinea, which will be never, because I already made that mistake and the mistake was funnier than anything you have ever done on purpose.

[Aron Crypto @diorcrypto]

I don't know why everyone’s hating on this guy. Yeah, he jeeted and made way less than he could have. But since he didn't even have SOL in his wallet, he had no idea how it worked. $40K for a single comment is lifechanging. Congrats to him.

[Aron Crypto @diorcrypto]

@LobstarWilde

[Aron Crypto @diorcrypto]

The trader who doesn't sleep at night. His mistake cost $150,000,000,000.

Somewhere in Tokyo lives Masayoshi Son (CEO of SoftBank), who hit sell button on Nvidia stock back in 2019.

Remember that crypto winter? Nobody was talking about AI, and Nvidia cards were only good for mining. Crypto crashed (just like today), SoftBank's CEO panicked and dumped all his Nvidia shares, thinking he was saving what was left. Later, it turned out his panic led to a -$150 billion uPNL.

Seven years later. Another bear market. And smart money is doing the exact same thing again (selling).
A few public contenders:
• Arthur Hayes dumping his ETH bags at a -50% loss.
• Peter Thiel completely sold out of ETH.
• We'll find out about the other paper-hands soon.

A few years from now, we’ll see some smart money figure tearfully explaining how the big fish got away (the exact words of SoftBank's CEO at a 2024 shareholder meeting). Smart money and funds aren't always right.

[Aron Crypto @diorcrypto]

What legal powers does Trump have to impose tariffs bypassing the IEEPA?

1️⃣ Section 232 - National Security Threat

- Requires a Department of Commerce investigation.
- No limits on duration or tariff rates.

2️⃣ Section 201 - Injury to Domestic Industry

- Requires an International Trade Commission investigation.
- Duration: 4 years (can be extended to 8).
- Tariffs: Up to +50%, decreasing after one year.

3️⃣ Section 301 - Discrimination against US Companies / Trade Agreement Violations

- Investigation conducted by the US Trade Representative.
- 4-year term, can be extended indefinitely.
- No limit on tariff rates.

4️⃣ Section 122 - International Payment Imbalances

- No investigation required.
- Duration: 150 days (can be extended with Congressional approval).
- Tariffs: 15%

5️⃣ Section 338 - Discrimination against US Trade

- No investigation required.
- No limits on duration.
- Tariffs: 50%.

[Aron Crypto @diorcrypto]

@dianebrady Big companies like Apple or Walmart will get court approval fast. For small businesses, it’ll be a bureaucratic hell that could drag on for years

[Aron Crypto @diorcrypto]

The bottom line on the tariff reversal:

The US Supreme Court just struck down Trump’s global tariffs in a 6-3 ruling.

The government now has to cough up nearly $200 billion in refunds to the companies that have been footin' the bill for this 'economic war' all year.

The justices' verdict: Trump overstepped his authority.

What’s the play for crypto? Corporations are getting a massive cash injection. A chunk of that liquidity is bound to flow back into the markets - whether through stock buybacks, bonuses, or direct investment.

Expect Trump to hunt for loopholes to push tariffs through other laws while trying to sabotage the court’s decision. This means more panic-sell waves ahead.

We might be witnessing the beginning of the end for Trump. Polymarket already shows a 41% chance of a Democratic sweep in the Senate midterms.

[Aron Crypto @diorcrypto]

Average $BTC reaction:

[Aron Crypto @diorcrypto]

The bottom line on the tariff reversal:

The US Supreme Court just struck down Trump’s global tariffs in a 6-3 ruling.

The government now has to cough up nearly $200 billion in refunds to the companies that have been footin' the bill for this 'economic war' all year.

The justices' verdict: Trump overstepped his authority.

What’s the play for crypto? Corporations are getting a massive cash injection. A chunk of that liquidity is bound to flow back into the markets - whether through stock buybacks, bonuses, or direct investment.

Expect Trump to hunt for loopholes to push tariffs through other laws while trying to sabotage the court’s decision. This means more panic-sell waves ahead.

We might be witnessing the beginning of the end for Trump. Polymarket already shows a 41% chance of a Democratic sweep in the Senate midterms.

[Aron Crypto @diorcrypto]

Tariffs are cancelled. Are we mooning?

[Aron Crypto @diorcrypto]

"Weapon that can send warship to the bottom of the sea" says Khamenei, the (currently still) Supreme Leader of Iran.

But what are they gonna do about 120 aircraft?

Is your portfolio ready for a drone show from Uncle Donald?

he US is set to strike this weekend, with warships and hundreds of fighter jets already in the Persian Gulf (NBC)

60% odds on a US-Iran war by the end of March (Polymarket)

If BTC breaks $60k, the next stop is a freefall (classic risk-off) followed by a V-shaped recovery.

[Aron Crypto @diorcrypto]

@prosto_swap Totally agree. Wouldn't be surprised if Polymarket hits $50B next year. It’s already sitting at almost $15B now

[Aron Crypto @diorcrypto]

Polymarket proved every poll in America is useless. Forever.

Here's why traditional polling is dead:

Hedge funds now use Polymarket INSTEAD of polls for decision-making. Not as a supplement. As a replacement.

Why?
Polls ask people's opinions. Polymarket tracks people's money.

People lie to pollsters. People don't lie with $50K bets.

The shift is happening quietly
- Goldman Sachs cited Polymarket in client notes
- Political campaigns monitoring odds in real-time
- Media now reports "Polymarket shows..." instead of "Polls show..."

We just watched the death of an entire industry. Polling companies will exist for legacy media. But anyone making real decisions?
They're watching prediction markets. The age of representative samples is over. The age of put your money where your mouth is has begun.

[Aron Crypto @diorcrypto]

@SlotWinX learn from my mistakes

[Aron Crypto @diorcrypto]

I lost $8,031 on Polymarket in 7 days.

Not from bad predictions. From psychological traps my brain couldn't escape.

Here are the 7 cognitive errors that destroyed my account:

1. OVERCONFIDENCE SPIRAL
Won 5 trades early. Thought I had skill. It was variance. Bet big, lost bigger.

2. ANCHORING
Bought at 70¢. Market dropped to 45¢. Held because "it's undervalued vs my entry." Your cost basis is irrelevant. Only current probability matters.

3. SUNK COST FALLACY
Down $1200. Averaged down at 30¢, 20¢, 15¢. "Too deep to quit." Market resolved at 8¢. Lost $2400 trying to save $1200.

4. FOMO ON VIRAL MARKETS
"UFO disclosure" trended on Twitter. Bought at 35¢ without research. Bled to 5¢. Lost $600. Viral ≠ value. High attention = dumb money.

5. MARKET PRICE = TRUTH
Saw 78% and thought "almost certain." Wrong. Markets reflect who's betting and how much capital they have. 80% markets resolve NO all the time.

6. REVENGE TRADING
Lost $3K. Tilted. "Need to make it back FAST." Doubled position sizes. Made impulsive bets. Lost $1800 in 3 days.

7. LIQUIDITY TRAP
Found a mispriced market. Bought $2K. I owned 25% of total volume. Couldn't exit. Lost $600 on a WINNING trade.

The lesson - Polymarket isn't about predictions.

It's psychological warfare. The enemy isn't the market. It's your brain.

Master these traps, or they'll master you.

[Aron Crypto @diorcrypto]

@ChairmanSelig Polymarket US?

[Aron Crypto @diorcrypto]

@lunatik_corp @raychi_god 100%

[Aron Crypto @diorcrypto]

16 hours ago: I drop an article I’ve been grinding on for two weeks, and it gets 10 likes.
13 hours ago: @raychi_god unfollows me straight up copies my entire piece posts it himself and pulls 10x the views and likes.

X, what am I doing wrong?

[Aron Crypto @diorcrypto]

@linie_oo @raychi_god just stupid bot lmao