discipleofcycle

| rational analyst | decoding markets | never not grinding | 👨🏼‍🍳

nfa!

[discipleofcycle @discipleofcycle]

If you're interested in finance, want the most relevant news and well-thought-out analysis, this is for you!

Focusing on technical analysis, you can learn a lot and also get to know how I combine it with both fundamentals and the macro cycle.

Follow me and get free trade ideas!

[discipleofcycle @discipleofcycle]

@cryptorover gaps fill at candle bodys not wicks

[discipleofcycle @discipleofcycle]

@The_JDK99 Is this a known strategy or did you "invent" it?

[discipleofcycle @discipleofcycle]

@HatedMoats Your beloved technical analysis tells me

[discipleofcycle @discipleofcycle]

@TheLongInvest China earnings ahead!

[discipleofcycle @discipleofcycle]

@The_JDK99 Quality you rarely get to see!

[discipleofcycle @discipleofcycle]

@TempoICT I’m too scared often times to take trades from sub 1m timeframes. So the crazy RR isn’t there most of the times. Took it too from the 1m though

[discipleofcycle @discipleofcycle]

Bottom could be in for $BABA!
· Structure looks good
· Good bounce off a retracement level
· Short-term indicators suggest upside potential, with longer-term indicators also not looking bad
· 50-week MA was hit today, in combination with the 88.2% Fib retracement

As always, I wouldn’t care too much about those lower timeframes, but chances are good for a sustainable move to the upside.

[discipleofcycle @discipleofcycle]

$PM moving from target zone to target zone right here. Didn’t enter because I didn’t get the perfect entry—my target price basically just wicked my zone 3 times and I wasn’t convinced.

Right now I’m pretty sure my primary scenario is in play, as all these overlapping moves to the upside so far don’t really suggest an impulsive move.

What makes me a bit unsure are my indicators, which already look like they could have topped out. That would argue we’re currently in wave 5 and on the way to a cycle top.

[discipleofcycle @discipleofcycle]

Just realized I never showed you my $NFLX chart. So for given occasion I’ll talk about it today.

5% drawdown so far today as Paramount raises its offer for Warner Brothers.

Elliott wave wise, this doesn’t look too good and this wave 4 we’ve seen so far is hard to count.

But with these C waves, the substructure isn’t the most important thing.

- Targets are reached (might get run through though)
- Indicators look very bullish
- Fundamentals are right
- I’m buying!

But as you know, I’m careful with US assets as my mid and long-term expectations for American indices are very bearish. So in my opinion, careful stock picking and reduced allocation are important.

NFA!

[discipleofcycle @discipleofcycle]

@DodgysDD My short is tasting phenomenal.

[discipleofcycle @discipleofcycle]

@DodgysDD Pre news?

[discipleofcycle @discipleofcycle]

On we go with my MAG 7 charts. Today I’ve got $MSFT for you.

As you can see, I think the top is in for this one. We found support after the earnings sell-off perfectly at the 78.6% Fib retracement in my alternative target zone. But I still don’t believe another sustained upside move is likely, especially with indicators shouting that a top has already formed.

It’s possible we’ll see a wave B soon that could theoretically make a new ATH, but that’s pretty unlikely.

I won’t touch Microsoft in this cycle anymore, and if I do, it will be a short trade.

I expect a major correction in both time and price—prices below $200 wouldn’t surprise me.

[discipleofcycle @discipleofcycle]

@TempoICT Yeah I agree, I didn’t take it because I’d liked to see a very very clear entry with more BSL this close

[discipleofcycle @discipleofcycle]

This recent move in $NVDA raises some questions for me.

It’s a very impulsive move, suggesting a first wave 1 and, with that, a completed wave 4 which would most likely also mark the bottom in $NQ.

Honestly, I’d rather have seen this move to the downside clearly finish wave 4. A deeper correction would also create a better base for another sustained move to the upside.

I might get rid of my hedge shorts in Nasdaq, currently slightly in profit.

[discipleofcycle @discipleofcycle]

$HIMS down the drain.
I’m bearish for quite some time, feel free to read my article I posted earlier.

[discipleofcycle @discipleofcycle]

Probably the most discussed stock on X right now: half the people are trying to catch the knife, the other half thinks $HIMS will go bankrupt. As usual, there’s too much emotion and too little objective analysis, which is why I’m sharing my thoughts today—emotions set aside.

- The main part of my analysis is always Elliott Wave. No matter how you count it, this clearly doesn’t look like a bottom anywhere near. A short-term bounce or consolidation is likely to form wave 4 before another leg lower.

- Indicators don’t look like a bottom either. Especially the monthly and two-week indications aren’t suggesting a major bottom, which is very meaningful. Weekly charts and below show some bounce potential, but I wouldn’t weigh that heavily—it aligns perfectly with my wave 4 expectation.

- The only thing hinting at a nearer bottom is the extremely poor sentiment combined with the 200-week and 50-month MAs, but this can also support my wave 4 view.

All in all, downside potential is favored, and I’m still not buying—though I’d love to.

[discipleofcycle @discipleofcycle]

Probably the most discussed stock on X right now: half the people are trying to catch the knife, the other half thinks $HIMS will go bankrupt. As usual, there’s too much emotion and too little objective analysis, which is why I’m sharing my thoughts today—emotions set aside.

- The main part of my analysis is always Elliott Wave. No matter how you count it, this clearly doesn’t look like a bottom anywhere near. A short-term bounce or consolidation is likely to form wave 4 before another leg lower.

- Indicators don’t look like a bottom either. Especially the monthly and two-week indications aren’t suggesting a major bottom, which is very meaningful. Weekly charts and below show some bounce potential, but I wouldn’t weigh that heavily—it aligns perfectly with my wave 4 expectation.

- The only thing hinting at a nearer bottom is the extremely poor sentiment combined with the 200-week and 50-month MAs, but this can also support my wave 4 view.

All in all, downside potential is favored, and I’m still not buying—though I’d love to.

[discipleofcycle @discipleofcycle]

$UAA is accelerating. Already 50% up from the top of my target zone.

Catalyst: good earnings report. Negative EPS expected turned into +0.1.

Structure is very bad and I’m not invested yet. I’m pretty sure of at least another deep wave 2 or even new lows. So far I’m just watching.

[discipleofcycle @discipleofcycle]

Historical values for the CoinMarketCap Fear and Greed Index.
Usually I feel like this one lags a bit and is often times higher than the others, but not this time.

The one from https://t.co/rL423u3MY5 is at 9 points, the lowest value since June 2022. That wasn’t the bear market bottom, but the FTX crash.
In combination with indicators like RSI, liquidation levels, on-chain data, and so on, there are many signs that usually mark a major bottom.
Let’s see what happens this time!