Víctor Guerra

Equities Swing Trader. Focused on Price & Volume + Risk Management. Momentum stocks. Weekly & Daily Clean Charts.

[Víctor Guerra @DiscipleStock]

May Recap - The Nightmare Month💥

Stocks traded:

$XNDU $GTLB $CYPH $CRML $SRTA $SKM $GH $BULL $CORZ $CRCL $NVTS $RUN $MP $CCJ $PL $SOUN $AOSL $AAOI $EOSE $ARRY $AFRM* $SLNH $GLXY $BW

* Still holding.

Also in $PURR & $BLDP from prior month.

Let's see what June brings.

[Kyle Williams @traderkylec]

Let this year be a lesson of narrative follows price NOT the other way around.

January $SLV “this is a repricing higher from inflation.” “AI’s demand for silver is pushing it up.”

Silver drops off the highs, narratives nowhere to be found.

April $CAR “two funds own the entire float, there’s no way this goes down unless they sell or the company does an offering.”

Neither happened, CAR still drops 75% in days. Narrative never mentioned again.

June $SPCX “only 4% of the float is tradable. The demand for this way outweighs the supply and should take the company higher than anyone expects.”

SPCX pulls back as naturally as any stock would that runs in a similar fashion.

It doesn’t mean some of these narratives had truth and facts to them. But it doesn’t stop price action from playing itself out. Remember if price action never went up in the first place, we wouldn’t have heard a single one of those narratives.

Narrative follows price.

[Víctor Guerra @DiscipleStock]

@TedHZhang

[Clement Ang @Clement_Ang17]

https://t.co/9PTGZzXo0c

[stockbee @PradeepBonde]

That is the number one thing I look at. If a stock has choppy action I don’t want to do anything with it. Linearity is most important if you want to make money with low risk.

[Víctor Guerra @DiscipleStock]

@PradeepBonde Hi sir, is 100k+ volume on average or that day's volume? Thanks.

[stockbee @PradeepBonde]

I am half way through the new Market Wizards book, and few things stand out insane work ethics, self leadership, self belief bordering on delusion and ability to go deep once they found setup ideas.

[Richard Moglen @RichardMoglen]

The 2026 @TraderLion Conference is coming soon!

This is my favorite event of the year. 100% Free and a chance to learn directly from Market Wizards

If you've enjoyed the previous conferences please share and retweet! 🔁

Register below! 👇

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[peoplewish @Peoplewish]

The foundation of risk management is simple: never let small losses become large losses. Preventing large losses is what keeps you in the game long enough to catch the big winners.

[Ariel Hernandez @RealSimpleAriel]

Think back to all the stocks that helped push the market higher from 4/8 to 6/1:

$SNDK $MU $INTC $ARM $DELL $AMD $GOOGL $MRVL $AAPL and dozens of others.

Now show me the clean bases they've built since then.

Do they look ready to lead the market meaningfully higher right now?

And people are surprised things are choppy?

This is exactly why so many newer traders struggle. They forget that consolidation is part of the process. Stocks rarely go straight up forever. Before another sustained advance can occur, leaders often need time to digest gains, shake out weak hands, and build tight 3–7+ week bases.

Instead, many traders try to force themselves back in before that process has played out. Patience isn't always exciting, but it's often where the edge comes from.

[Víctor Guerra @DiscipleStock]

Nick just described my current situation.

* April 2025 - March 2026 → triple digit return (first time).
* Q1-2026 → $SPX down -7.3% while I kept my account small green.
* April → outperforming $SPX by double digit.
* May → out of sync, awful trading, on tilt → negative YTD.

[Nick Schmidt @NickSchmidt]

The market environment is always subtly changing and you want to get in sync with it. When I am I try to protect that feeling at all costs. Sometimes I get out of sync even in a good market.

Maybe I keep trying to trade a group too long before realizing it hasn’t been in favor. I’m late on rotation so make some sloppy buys to catch up… then market pulls back and stops me out.

That pullback is probably the great entry but I’m not going to buy because I just got stopped out from chasing. And the only reason I chased is because weeks ago I did and it worked. If I didn’t chase I would have missed the other trades.

Now I’m out of sync. It’s a bad spot to be in and my priority becomes getting back in sync.

The wrong way to go about it is to keep placing sloppy trades focusing on getting my account back to highs. Sloppy random trades are going to give sloppy random results and at the point you can start to spiral or just stay stuck.

The right way to go about it is to slow down wait for top tier entries or don’t take it at all. If any position has been frustrating and taking up mental space get rid of it.

Last year I felt out of sync so just blew out all my positions to refresh and think clearly from scratch.

To get back into a rhythm you have to slow down and be intentional with your decisions. It’s easy to get stuck feeling behind and in a rush to catch up but trading from that pov you are at a disadvantage before you even place a trade.

[The Factor Report @PeterLBrandt]

Something I cannot quite understand

Why people take losing trades personally

The markets don't know you. They have no idea who you are. They could care less what your hopes, fears and aspirations are. The markets are totally cold. Unfeeling

So why take a losing trade personally

Probably because you have misplaced assumptions and expectations. You assume the market cares about you enough to offer a profit. Your expectations are falsely placed

When I enter a trade I expect it to be a loser. I assume it will be a loser. This way I take risk management seriously

I know my trading stats. Over 200 trades I can come within a 10% on my estimate of ROR, win rate, PF, etc

But on any given trade or series of trades I do not have a clue. I may think I know where a market is going, but in reality I have no idea

So why would I take a loss personally. A trade is nothing more than a datum point in a series of data points subject to random probability theory. A loss is not a personal indictment

[CJ @IntlSpeculator]

So true, watch fewer stocks.

From Gil Morales:

"I used to work with Bill O'Neil. He would have one screen, one monitor screen with about 20 quotes on it. Three index quotes and maybe 15 or so stock quotes, and they would all be in huge type maybe you know an inch and a half high on his screen and his whole take was that you didn't really need to look at so much. You only needed to know which were the big stocks, and he was very good at picking that out... so what I try to do is I try to look at as little as possible"

[Víctor Guerra @DiscipleStock]

@TaPlot Some of the things that I've learned from you:

"No big red volume bars on right side of chart".
"Low risk entries".
"Trading near the danger zone".
"Volume drying up".
"RSNHBP".
"Do what works for YOU".

And many others.

Your volume indicator has helped me a lot. Thanks sir!

[Víctor Guerra @DiscipleStock]

$CECO in RS phase and flagging. Tight day.

[The Factor Report @PeterLBrandt]

Putting profitability into perspective

Two things for all retail traders to remember

1. Less than two in 1,000 retail traders will put in huge numbers (100%-plus) year after year in the future
2. The very best professional investors/traders (the Stan Druckenmillers of the world) average only slightly more than 40% per year

Yet, some schmuck wants you to believe they did 300% last month

[Investment Wisdom @InvestingCanons]

Stanley Druckenmiller:

“Life goes in streaks. And like a hitter in baseball, sometimes a money manager is seeing the ball and sometimes they're not.”

When investors are down, they tend to get aggressive to win it back. Druckenmiller: “One of my most important jobs as a money manager was to understand whether I was hot or cold...”

“In my opinion, when you're cold, you should be trying for bunts.”

[Ariel Hernandez @RealSimpleAriel]

From some of the responses I keep getting on my posts, and from the general market commentary on X. It seems as if everyone has burned it into their mind that every small dip/pullback is buyable. That behavior is usually rewarded early after a correction and follow through day. Not at the very start of a correction/consolidation.

[Víctor Guerra @DiscipleStock]

And the COT data shows that Large Speculators are net short the Nasdaq — the highest short positioning since April 2023.

That period was followed by strong results:

April +0.04%
May +5.80%
June +6.59%
July +4.05%

[Christian Flanders @CFlanders7]

Never seen this before. Huge drop in NAAIM with market at all time highs.

[Víctor Guerra @DiscipleStock]

Theme leaders have been reigniting their groups on big catalysts lately (usually earnings):

$RKLB (ER) → $LUNR, $FLY, $PL, $BKSY
$DOCN (ER) → $AKAM, $OSS, $RNG
$CRCL (ER) → $COIN, $GLXY, $SLNH, $ASST

Next candidate:
$USAR (ER tomorrow) → $CRML, $MP, $TMQ, $NB, $UAMY, $IDR