I think India has completely misread the biggest economic shift of the last decade.
Unfortunately the Government of India has failed. Not marginally. Not partially. It has failed in a big way.
For years we have been told that India is the fastest-growing large economy in the world. That our demographics are unmatched. That our consumption story is intact. That global investors cannot ignore us.
Yet look at what has actually happened.
Over the last 4–5 years the world witnessed one of the biggest reallocations of capital in modern history.
Trillions of dollars moved.
The US attracted capital into AI. Taiwan became the semiconductor capital of the world. South Korea became a key beneficiary of the memory and AI boom. Vietnam emerged as a manufacturing destination. Singapore strengthened its position as Asia's capital hub. UAE became a magnet for global entrepreneurs and family offices.
And India?
India largely watched from the sidelines while continuing to sell the same consumption story.
The numbers tell the story.
Net FDI inflows into India have fallen sharply from their peak years.
Private equity activity has slowed materially.
Venture capital funding is a fraction of what it was during the 2021 cycle.
Foreign investors have been net sellers for prolonged periods.
And despite all this there seems to be very little introspection within the system..
Instead every explanation sounds familiar.
"It's a global issue."
"It's temporary."
"It's an AI bubble."
"It's because of interest rates."
At some point we need to stop explaining away reality.
Capital does not care about narratives.
Capital follows opportunity.
And we failed to create enough of it.
China built manufacturing ecosystems that are still decades ahead of us. America built the world's most powerful innovation engine. Taiwan built the semiconductor backbone of the digital economy.
India built compliance.
Ask any foreign investor.
They worry about:
* tax uncertainty
* regulatory complexity
* currency depreciation
* capital movement restrictions
* compliance burden
* endless approvals
These are not ideological issues. These are execution failures.
What makes this even more worrying is that India continues to depend heavily on a consumption-led growth model.
But where does that consumption come from?
A large part comes from:
* salaried professionals
* IT employees
* financial services
* real estate-linked employment
* urban middle class spending
Now look at what AI is doing.
Whether people like it or not this is no longer a passing theme.
It is already reshaping hiring.
It is already reshaping productivity.
It is already changing how businesses think about incremental headcount.
If India misses this wave as well then the consequences will not be limited to the IT sector.
The ripple effects could hit:
* housing demand
* automobiles
* travel
* entertainment
* premium consumption
* retail spending
The second-order impact may be larger than the first-order impact.
And yet where is the urgency?
Where is the national AI mission at scale?
Where are the world-class research incentives?
Where are the regulatory reforms to attract global capital?
Where is the accountability from bureaucrats who have repeatedly missed these shifts?
The most dangerous assumption being made today is that demographics will save India.
Demographics are not an advantage by default.
They are only an advantage if jobs are created faster than aspirations.
Otherwise demographics become pressure.
And pressure eventually becomes unrest.
The world is moving faster than at any point in modern history.
The uncomfortable truth is that India is not competing against its own past anymore.
India is competing against countries that are moving with far greater speed and urgency.
The next 3 years will decide whether India becomes a genuine economic superpower or remains a country endlessly talking about its potential.
Potential does not attract capital. Execution does.
Somewhere in this article is a prayer that residents and commoners be spared of the inconvenience of VIP movement. That’s not too much to ask sir @CMOTamilnadu
TRUMP PRAISES MODI TO THE SKIES.
"..He's a very tough negotiator... You look at this man. I'll give you a lesson. He's the most beautiful-looking man. He looks so nice, like an angel. But actually, he's as tough as he is a killer... But he looks so good. So he gets you by surprise. But there are a few people like this. People say he's such a nice man. I said he's very tough. He's a tough trader, and he loves the Indian people, but he also loves the USA. We had 'Howdy Modi' in Houston. The stadium was full... We'll be going to India sometime in the future."
In all this noise and speculation, remember one thing: MODI WILL OUTLAST TRUMP.
And most likely, the Indian PM will outlast the next US President as well.
Most world leaders are playing rapid chess. Modi has a lot of time for moves.
India’s IT ministry banned Telegram for one week because some users shared leaked exam questions.
This punishes 150M+ ordinary Telegram users in India — not the insiders who leaked the exam materials.
And the ban hasn't stopped anything. The leaks just moved to other apps.
@KartiPC@NTA_Exams You should also shut down all the shopping malls since there might be a theft in one of them. And close the roads because I heard someone was speeding.
The price of four persons 3AC from Howrah to Bangalore ticket is ₹29500
Named premium tatkal
Normal fare 1500 rupees
Amrit Kaal fare 7500 rupees
Loot machale loot machale loot................
Telegram will be blocked in India till June 22 for NEET exam. This is a great move because it was Telegram which was responsible for paper setting and leaks. If still paper leaks, next option is to block Internet in India.
With everybody writing to @CMOTamilNadu, I thought I too will add to his inbox - A Letter to Our Chief Minister - Madras Heritage and Carnatic Music https://t.co/cCcBgXFVWz
Glad to see Diya Mirza has finally identified the culprit for climate change. Non-historians should not speak on history, but everyone should speak on science.
Iran has rubbed America’s nose on the ground and emerged Victorious. Israel Tamed. China remains a Towering Giant. Pakistan has emerged in Diplomatic Centerstage. India currently is useful for arranging or attending events and organising dance to welcome foreign leaders