distressed and ai

Distressed credit and AI investor

[distressed and ai @distressedai]

$sats - At $2trn for SpaceX we arrive north of $200/share

[distressed and ai @distressedai]

@nathandeanDC Seems like fnma came out with 26/27 strategic goal. Didn’t include IPO. TBH, not their decision, so surprised by price action. Clearly I’m wrong.

[distressed and ai @distressedai]

@michaelsikand That 50-70 million shares equates to roughly 9-13 days of SATS’s recent average daily trading volume (around 5.55 million shares).

[distressed and ai @distressedai]

@michaelsikand with significant volume often at the close on the last trading day before inclusion (likely March 20, 2026, assuming it’s a Friday).

[distressed and ai @distressedai]

@michaelsikand to passive indexers buying on the order of 50-70 million shares in aggregate, though the actual figure could vary based on final weighting and flows. These purchases generally occur leading up to and on the effective date,

[distressed and ai @distressedai]

@michaelsikand The exact number of shares depends on factors like the total AUM tracking the index (estimated at around $12-15 trillion), SATS’s float-adjusted weight in the index (roughly 0.05% based on its ~$30.6 billion market cap), and individual fund strategies. This typically translates

[distressed and ai @distressedai]

@michaelsikand EchoStar (SATS) is being added to the S&P 500 as part of the quarterly rebalance, effective prior to the market open on March 23, 2026. Index funds and ETFs that passively track the S&P 500 will need to purchase shares to align their holdings with the updated index.

[distressed and ai @distressedai]

@michaelsikand @transhumanica Great write up!

Can you elaborate on why Echostar wouldn’t have to pay down the debt at SATS and DISH, wouldn’t that trigger a cross default for a company that moved all sorts of assets and has a 4y look back in Colorado?

[distressed and ai @distressedai]

$IONR - Trump signs agreement on critical minerals with Australia

[distressed and ai @distressedai]

@Mike10947310 Great comment on $IONR. Thx!

At 8x 200mm of EBITDA we get 1.6bn of EV…is that not a triple from here? I guess depends on how you think about the loan draw…anyone have a view?

[distressed and ai @distressedai]

@noliquidity_ Would love that! Is there something you’re referring to, other than what we already know? Any new news?

[distressed and ai @distressedai]

@crwv - Deutsche Bank analyst Brad Zelnick placed a "Catalyst Call: Buy" on shares of CoreWeave as a short-term investment idea. The firm believes "positive factors coming together" to support upward revenue estimates over the next quarter or two for CoreWeave.

[distressed and ai @distressedai]

$CRWV - Bloomberg reports that Sam Altman and Jensen Huang will travel with President Trump to the UK next week to pledge billions in UK datacenter investments, citing sources.

CoreWeave ($CRVW) will also join the trip to announce its own UK investment.

[distressed and ai @distressedai]

@AndrewRangeley @yummyCenturyEgg What’s we think comes next? Auction for balance of assets? What the risk that Charlie buys something big…which would likely crush the stock. Also, how do we listen to the pod? Thx Andrew!!

[distressed and ai @distressedai]

@planert41 Can see $100 here on next transaction but unsure of timing and if folks take profits on this monster move

[distressed and ai @distressedai]

@planert41 I was long the SATS October $45 calls, but I’ve sold and swapped into stock

[distressed and ai @distressedai]

@planert41 Hey, great call was wondering where you’re seeing the data to support the 40% short interest all I’m seeing is 12 to 14%

Thx!!!

[distressed and ai @distressedai]

@dan_tmt $SATS: EchoStar price target raised to $67 from $28 at TD Cowen

[distressed and ai @distressedai]

@dan_tmt Nice. I don’t really indersand the LEO partnership…maybe you can elaborate?

But $58bn of assets less $23bn of net debt is 35bn for equity

Over 290mm shares = $120

Amen

I sold my Oct $45s (which I had written off to zero) and bought back stock today…LFG