Division_bells

mainly tracking those booted each day under 94a. also around the world politics. and the royal stuff. not associated with anyone in parliment

[Division_bells @DivisionBellsqt]

Reminder no south aus election coverage this weekend. Clashes with nurburgring langstrecken series round 2 plus its got max verstappen in it. So will be even busier then normal.

@TimeCertainRace is where i have coverage of racing.

[Sky News @SkyNews]

Andy Burnham is meeting Labour MPs to "win their confidence" as their next prime minister, former Labour deputy leader Harriet Harman has revealed

https://t.co/RXeI5TxJeg

[Tom Harwood @tomhfh]

If he becomes Prime Minister, Andy Burnham will be the first Cantabrigian to hold the post since Stanley Baldwin, who left office in 1937.

By contrast every single university educated Prime Minister since then has been an Oxonian, save for Gordon Brown (Edinburgh).

[Jessica Elgot @jessicaelgot]

Two very big dates around this period:

- 7th July is Nato summit which Starmer looks likely to attend - and by which we need the Defence Investment Plan

- 22 July is the EU reset summit in Brussels. Will this be PM Andy Burnham?

[Tom Harwood @tomhfh]

9th July noms open.

New leader by the summer recess.

Starmer to remain as PM until contest complete.

[Tom Harwood @tomhfh]

Nominations complete 16th July.

IF contested, the leadership election will last the summer, completing before Parliament returns on 1st September.

IF only one candidate, this statement implies we could have a new Prime Minister in 24 days’ time.

[Paul Brand @PaulBrandITV]

BREAKING: Sir Keir Starmer resigns as Prime Minister.

“The question my party is asking now is whether I am best placed to lead us into the next general election. I have heard the answer of my parliamentary party to that question - and I accept that answer with good grace.”

[Politics UK @PolitlcsUK]

According to The Guardian, Cabinet ministers say Starmer will outline a resignation timetable - likely keeping him in post until the autumn - outside No 10 tomorrow morning

The paper reports Starmer and his inner circle began work on drafts of a resignation speech on Saturday

[Politics UK @PolitlcsUK]

🚨 BREAKING: Keir Starmer is expected to address the nation tomorrow morning

[Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️ @LeftieStats]

If Keir Starmer resigns on Monday, he would become the shortest-serving Labour Prime Minister since Ramsay MacDonald's brief 256-day premiership in 1924.

Starmer's tenure (717 days) would rank alongside that of Anthony Eden (644 days) and Rishi Sunak (619 days).

[Politics UK @PolitlcsUK]

According to The Observer, who is closely plugged into No 10, Starmer now accepts that his time has run out as the majority of Labour MPs now back Andy Burnham

Senior Labour figures believe a "clear statement" could come as early as Monday

[Politics UK @PolitlcsUK]

🚨 BREAKING: Keir Starmer is officially set to resign as Prime Minister

Several media reports say he'll outline a resignation timetable on Monday after consulting with his wife and family today

[Beth Rigby @BethRigby]

ANALYSIS: The walls are closing in on a Starmer as his predicament begins to hit home after Burnham’s blistering win. PM is at Chequers weighing up his options. What the cabinet and MPs do in next 72 hours critical. A snapshot of where we’re at https://t.co/b31loW58iH

[Beth Rigby @BethRigby]

Where are we at as we go into the weekend after a remarkable and consequential week in British politics?

For now, all is quiet. Andy Burnham has been whisked away from the front line to spend the weekend with his family, while Keir Starmer has gone to Chequers to reflect on his future with his family.

Senior party figures tell me not to expect any public interventions of top Labour figures this weekend, but there is of course a huge amount going on - and the next few days are going to be critical: As one Burnham ally put it to be on Friday, the Prime Minister can have a dignified exit or a bloody one, but the die is cast, Burnham is going to become the Prime Minister

What’s going on for Keir Starmer? He has been adamant that he would fight any contest, and that is what he repeated when he faced the cameras on Friday, but one of those who have had conversations with him tell me that behind closed doors he is it beginning to hit home that he might have to give way, as a growing number of the cabinet and his MPs indicate that he no longer has their support.

As @HarrietHarman, put it to me & @RuthDavidsonPC our Electoral Dysfunction podcast today, “the herd isn’t moving, it is stampeding...the parliamentary Labour Party have made a decision that they’re not hanging around with Keir Starmer.”

“We don’t want a situation where cabinet ministers are resigning to try and push Keir Starmer out,” says Harman. “One MP who's been a real big Keir-Starmer supporter, who's now signed up for Andy Burnham, said to me that he doubts there's even 30 MPs now who actually believe it's possible for Keir Starmer to stay, not that they necessarily don’t want him to stay, but they just feel it’s over"

The scale of Burnham’s victory - much bigger than anticipated - has sealed the deal with many MPs who are now convinced that Burnham is the one that will help Labour keep Reform off its heartlands and save the party from another terrible set of election results next May. “The idea that we can beat Reform has gripped the party,” said one senior figure.

“The notion is settling that Andy is the only hope, and members are excited that there’s a change their areas won’t be taken over by Reform,” says one senior source.

There is little appetite for a leadership race on the Burnham side or the wider party. Starmer has publicly warned that it will tear the party apart, while one cabinet minister told me it would be “awful” to get to a place where the Prime Minister and rivals tear pieces out of each other in public, trashing the Labour government and destroying Starmer’s legacy. Wes Streeting has been very vocal about the need for one and saying he will run. Others whisper that it might be that he and Burnham do a deal. There are lots of ifs and buts in all of this....

I’m told by party insiders that when it comes to MPs, “probably the majority” want the PM to stand down by party conference, while a “sizeable number” of cabinet colleagues are privately telling the PM he needs to set out a timetable. Heidi Alexander, the transport secretary, was the latest to do so on Friday.

The Prime Minister told me last week that he would speak to Burnham after the weekend, while Burnham’s team also want a meeting between the two men next week. Many in the party hope that Starmer and Burnham might come to an agreement and arrange something between them.

There is a lot of upset and sadness amongst those around the Prime Minister, as the walls close in and Starmer’s departure becomes more inevitable. “I feel a sense of bereavement,” said one loyalist. “But it hasn’t worked out. I never thought we’d be here two years in.”

For my part, having interviewed the PM on his future a number of times, I think he would like to fight on if he could and his allies point out to me that “the PM’s agency in this shouldn’t be underestimated”. He has built a £100,000 war chest to fight a contest and has key staff and a leadership website ready to go.

But if Starmer does not have enough support in his cabinet or his parliamentary party night he conclude that he cannot fight on? That’s why what the cabinet, senior ministers and Labour MPs do in the coming days is so critical.

[Politics UK @PolitlcsUK]

🚨 BREAKING: Keir Starmer is now considering resigning after Cabinet Ministers called for him to step down

He'll come to a decision with his wife and family over the weekend

[@thetimes]

[Beth Rigby @BethRigby]

“The herd isn’t moving. It’s stampeding”

[Division_bells @DivisionBellsqt]

@samlutd Agreed. But i like the way they break down the informal votes. Which aus did that.

[Paul Brand @PaulBrandITV]

Andy Burnham:

“Everyone knows politics isn’t working. Tonight could - just could - be the turning point. From here on I will give everything I have got to make it so.”

“I say this to my party… This is a final chance to change. We must act upon it.”

[Britain Elects @BritainElects]

✅ BURNHAM IN

Makerfield by-election result:

LAB: 54.8% (+9.6)
REF: 34.5% (+2.7)
RST: 6.8% (+6.8)
CON: 2.2% (-8.7)
GRN: 0.7% (-3.7)
LDEM: 0.4% (-6.4)

[Tom Harwood @tomhfh]

MAKERFIELD BY ELECTION RESULT

Burnham: 24,937
Reform: 15,696
Restore: 3,111
Conservative: 997
Green: 308
Lib Dem: 163
Binface: 95
Loony: 45
Ind: 37
Rejoin EU: 35
Libertarian: 18
Climate: 18
Ind: 18
Ind: 8

[PARLY @PARLYapp]

Congratulations to @AndyBurnhamGM the new MP for Makerfield