@GavMcCracken You should be thankful. Trump will keep shiposting about a peace deal until a barrel of oil costs -$10/bbl. Then just buy 3x levered calls on oil spot price when the SPR is a week from empty. Free money
No one wanted mass immigration, in any of our countries.
But almost immediately following WWII, in every one of our countries, the legal framework was put in place to remove country restrictions on immigration.
Following that there was a global psyop to brainwash everyone into thinking that racism was worse than murder.
Following that policies were put into place to crash fertility. The pill, no fault divorce, women in the workplace, overpopulation propaganda, etc.
Following that, when the demographic crunch from the missing babies kicked in, and all the white boomers and their daughters were good and mindraped, the floodgates were thrown open, everywhere, all at once.
You will never convince me that this "just happened".
@Osinttechnical >Be Iran
>Sign MOU
>Take your time opening up the strait
>Wait for israel to bomb Lebanon
>”You violated the agreement”
>Stall negotiations like Mindy in the SpongeBob movie
>Keep the strait closed until the world is out of oil
>Don’t sue for peace
>World capitulates
>Win
@AkkadSecretary I agree with the premise. He’s been correct over the past 40 years. But the fact that people are now starting to say this has me worried about equity valuations
The Last Barrel Thesis:
The marginal cost of production is usually the free market way oil prices are set. But since the Hormuz crisis began, the free market for oil has not operated. The marginal free market barrel has been replaced temporarily by an artificial last barrel supplier.
Why do I say artificial: because marginal seller of oil is currently price insensitive (the SPR). This is why oil prices have not rallied sustainably beyond $100. The market first needs to consume the SPRs last barrels.
Only then will commercial price sensitive buyers become the last barrels once again and true price discovery begin. Only then will we see demand destruction, a recession, short term collapse below marginal oil production costs, and gradual stabilization at the new marginal $80-$100 floor.
The market cannot look through the SPR sales as they have temporarily messed up oil price formation. Some in the market think that even if the last barrel of SPR is drained we will see further govt action (price controls, export controls, seizure of commercial inventories) that will drag out this last barrel interference in market prices for much longer.
The challenge will be that governments interfering in market prices usually ends in economic disaster.
First a little pre-crisis (Jan 2026) history. The marginal cost of oil moved from around $60 to roughly $90 WTI, and here’s why:
@zerohedge Man who’s shitposting saved the stock market from a >20% correction from the ongoing Hormuz crisis is now suprised when stocks aren’t going up on good jobs data