Yet another commodity guy

Commodity Portfolio Manager - Systematic mid-frequency futures & options - Switzerland - Options - Quantitative trading - Data driven

[Yet another commodity guy @tleilax___]

Commodity "Widow-Maker" Trades - A comprehensive field guide

A "widow-maker" is a trade that looks attractive on paper (mean-reverting, carry-positive, statistically cheap, or seasonally obvious) but has a long, nasty left tail driven by structural asymmetries: storage/delivery mechanics, weather, political risk, illiquidity, or short-gamma dynamics. The common thread is bounded upside, unbounded downside, and a payoff profile dominated by rare but catastrophic events.

Starting a little thread.

[Yet another commodity guy @tleilax___]

A small team in Prague found ways to improve many open-source AI models token efficiency by ~40% without accuracy degradation.

Efficiency.

[BottleCapAI @BottleCapAI]

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[Yet another commodity guy @tleilax___]

Be like swisstony

[Elai @elaifresh]

most of the top gamblers on Polymarket are longshot punters that get lucky on a few huge bets

then there's this guy "swisstony" that has placed on average of one bet an hour for stretches of weeks at a time; low-risk, high-volume

he's made twelve million dollars

[Yet another commodity guy @tleilax___]

And I'm the king of England.

Would also be nice if that Bolsonaro kid could keep De Gaulle's name out of his filthy mouth.

[BRASILWIRE @BRASILWIRE]

Breaking: Fugitive Presidential loser Flávio Bolsonaro has just declared himself President of Brazil from his new home in the United States. 🤡

[Yet another commodity guy @tleilax___]

The plot thickens. That diesel will end up in Haiti or Cuba.

[Richard Blumenthal @SenBlumenthal]

I’m sending a sledgehammer message to shipping companies whose tankers are transporting illegal Russian diesel to our ports. Reverse course while there’s still time.

[BBC News (UK) @BBCNews]

Elon Musk is a 'real genius', Putin says after satellite talks with SpaceX boss https://t.co/oMj8fyrYVY

[Kate from Kharkiv @BohuslavskaKate]

According to Le Monde, citing sources, U.S. special envoy Witkoff held a tense meeting in Florida on October 9 with Budanov, head of Ukraine’s Presidential Office.

Sources claimed that Witkoff spoke to Budanov “like a child,” trying to “teach” him how to make money.

Witkoff proposed a postwar “regional prosperity plan” that included fully restoring Russian oil and gas transit to Europe through Ukrainian territory.

Witkoff argued that Ukraine would earn transit revenues while Europe would benefit from lower energy costs.

Budanov reportedly replied that Ukraine’s model is “not Belarus, but Poland,” then stepped out to call President Zelenskyy, who advised him not to show any reaction.

When the talks resumed, the Ukrainian side was shown a document outlining a U.S.-Russia diesel deal.

An irritated Witkoff reportedly said: “Accept this diesel deal and stop striking Russian oil refineries — you are putting the world at risk!”

Ukrainian participants were described as shocked, viewing the plan as creating dependency on Moscow and noting that the United States appeared to have secured nothing in return from Putin.

A source close to the delegation told Le Monde: “I have never seen the Ukrainians so stunned and alarmed after a meeting.”

Analysts contrasted the episode with the February 28, 2025 Oval Office incident, saying this one involves concrete policy decisions that could affect Ukraine’s ability to defend itself ahead of a potentially harsh winter.

https://t.co/eOmRleTQgk

[Yet another commodity guy @tleilax___]

@anonfeed123 They have stopped before in 2022

[Yet another commodity guy @tleilax___]

Second order effects. Primary aluminium smelting is unprofitable in Europe (except Scandinavia).

Stopping for the winter would reduce supplies by 200 kt at a time inventories at the LME are mostly Russian metal.

It also would free up 680 MW of baseload power in regions of Europe that have a better use for it.

[Yet another commodity guy @tleilax___]

Second order effects. Ammonia production is likely to shut down this winter due to high natural gas prices.

Watch Yara Porsgrunn plant closely.

[Yet another commodity guy @tleilax___]

You can see the blackened spot on the left of the image, and the associated flare stack being inactive.

[Yet another commodity guy @tleilax___]

Ras Tanura refinery was struck and has now stopped flaring.

[Yet another commodity guy @tleilax___]

@Randomicky The marginal producer sets the price.

[Yet another commodity guy @tleilax___]

Second order effects. Ammonia production is likely to shut down this winter due to high natural gas prices.

Watch Yara Porsgrunn plant closely.

[Yet another commodity guy @tleilax___]

Second order effects. Zinc smelters in Europe are soon shutting down because of baseload power prices.

[Yet another commodity guy @tleilax___]

@PetjaYlitalo @moisesrosado Yep they can sell the back to the grid/network at high prices if they shutdown.

[Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom]

This is what I've been hearing as well: "The US has told several Gulf Arab countries to be prepared for a short, intense military campaign after the midterms." https://t.co/ukJkDMOeHn

[Haaretz.com @haaretzcom]

🗳️Exit polls: Netanyahu opponents projected to win 70 seats, including 17 for Arab parties; PM's block projected to win 50

[Ryan Grim @ryangrim]

🚨Big scoop here with Iona Craig at @DropSiteNews:

The UAE has been covertly assisting the Houthis, also known as Ansarallah, in their war against Saudi Arabia inside Yemen https://t.co/5aAa619jJ1

[Yet another commodity guy @tleilax___]

Looks like an innocent request😇

[Φίλιππος @phileeppos]

The Petroleum University of Technology is run by Iran's Ministry of Petroleum. This is definitely a Master's student and not 3 Iranian intelligence specialists stacked in a trench coat. The Iranian regime is asking to use my data 😂

[Mark Johnston @profutures2012]

Third order effects. Germanium is primarily produced as a byproduct of zinc refining... and prices are up 260% over 3 years because, China @skrubin

$LPTH creates germanium free optics for the entire defense industry