Φίλιππος

[Φίλιππος @phileeppos]

@glbeaty Not sure Suez is relevant since most (all?) of these seem to be Asia bound.

[Φίλιππος @phileeppos]

Going forward I will be tracking total flows out of the Gulf of Oman and subtracting the ~2.5 mpbd Fujiarah + Oman exports to get an estimate of Hormuz flows. Why? Because most Hormuz flows are dark now, but eventually turn AIS back on or transfer to legit ships that turn AIS on

[Φίλιππος @phileeppos]

Over the last 5 days outbound:
AB Victory - bitumen - IQ
Seaway - oil (300k) - PA
Gas Nora - LPG - IN
Ocean Lily - VLCC - CN
Deepblue - oil (300k) - CN
Universal Winner - VLCC - KR

Inbound:
Astram - LPG - CN
Victory Ari - oil (300k) - IQ
Louiza - oil - CN
Grand Lady - VLCC - CN

[Φίλιππος @phileeppos]

@glbeaty Up til now I've just been assuming they're full based on MarineTraffic saying they're laden. I just spot checked a few and based on draught they're all full or close to full.

[Φίλιππος @phileeppos]

Drop back down to more normal levels today, implied hormuz flow of 2.2 million barrels yesterday, but that's enough to pull the 7 day average from 3.7 mbpd (3 mbpd quoted yesterday was due to a math error) to 4mbpd

[Φίλιππος @phileeppos]

For the past 7 days, average flows out of the gulf were 5.5 mbpd, which translates to 3 mbpd through the strait after netting out Fujairah + Oman. Notably, this average is pulled up massively by a large spike in flows over the last 3 days which saw ~6mbpd through the strait

[Φίλιππος @phileeppos]

@Rory_Johnston Of course the significance of this rests on whether this spike over the last few days is durable or just some kind of one off, but it's worth keeping an eye on

[Φίλιππος @phileeppos]

@Rory_Johnston You can also see the raw data here: https://t.co/GFIwAStxgH

[Φίλιππος @phileeppos]

@briangobosox @sidprabhu Yeah let's see if the 6mbpd is a one off or an ongoing thing. One would think the recent escalations might lead to a clampdown, but who knows how good IRGC is at preventing bribes to low level commanders lol

[Φίλιππος @phileeppos]

@briangobosox @sidprabhu FYI I started my own thread to track dark transits and the estimate I get from this methodology pretty closely matches your 2.5 to 3 mbpd guesstimate https://t.co/d4HFVXAD38

[Φίλιππος @phileeppos]

For the past 7 days, average flows out of the gulf were 5.5 mbpd, which translates to 3 mbpd through the strait after netting out Fujairah + Oman. Notably, this average is pulled up massively by a large spike in flows over the last 3 days which saw ~6mbpd through the strait

[Φίλιππος @phileeppos]

@briangobosox @sidprabhu Not clear how much volume it is, this guy estimates 1.5 to 2 mbpd based on satellite imagery. It's basically shadow tankers who can't move Iranian oil anymore repurposing themselves to get non-sanctioned oil through the Iranian corridor https://t.co/73uwHhsjzA

[Yet another commodity guy @tleilax___]

@r_walk7 @obvs___ 1.5-2 mbd of S2S vs zero a month ago

[Φίλιππος @phileeppos]

@Adibougre It's pretty easy to do manually with Marine Traffic playback because it's color coded so you can ignore most of the traffic which isn't tankers. It's really only a handful of tankers a day that exit.

[Φίλιππος @phileeppos]

This methodology will lag gold standard satellite/SAR tracking by a day or two due to transit time to get out of the gulf + time needed for ship-to-ship transfers. But over the past week it has pretty closely tracked JPM's satellite/SAR Hormuz tracker https://t.co/D06Cywy8Me

[obvs ((programmable permissionless money)) @obvs___]

@phileeppos @tleilax___ @r_walk7 Someone shared the quote from one of the trading groups that I'm in, I don't have access to the full note. This is what I have

[Φίλιππος @phileeppos]

For the past 7 days, average flows out of the gulf were 5.5 mbpd, which translates to 3 mbpd through the strait after netting out Fujairah + Oman. Notably, this average is pulled up massively by a large spike in flows over the last 3 days which saw ~6mbpd through the strait

[Φίλιππος @phileeppos]

Going forward I will be tracking total flows out of the Gulf of Oman and subtracting the ~2.5 mpbd Fujiarah + Oman exports to get an estimate of Hormuz flows. Why? Because most Hormuz flows are dark now, but eventually turn AIS back on or transfer to legit ships that turn AIS on

[Φίλιππος @phileeppos]

@Adibougre It's actually not hard. I did the last 7 days this morning and it pretty closely tracked JPM's satellite/SAR tracking of Hormuz flows. https://t.co/d4HFVXAD38

[Φίλιππος @phileeppos]

For the past 7 days, average flows out of the gulf were 5.5 mbpd, which translates to 3 mbpd through the strait after netting out Fujairah + Oman. Notably, this average is pulled up massively by a large spike in flows over the last 3 days which saw ~6mbpd through the strait

[Φίλιππος @phileeppos]

@athcanft Wow I'm an oldhead, didn't know that was a thing now lol

[Φίλιππος @phileeppos]

If this is accurate it would explain the recent price action in crude.

[obvs ((programmable permissionless money)) @obvs___]

@phileeppos @tleilax___ @r_walk7 Someone shared the quote from one of the trading groups that I'm in, I don't have access to the full note. This is what I have

[Φίλιππος @phileeppos]

@obvs___ @tleilax___ @r_walk7 That is wild if true. Did you see someone else sharing this or are you a JPM client? Any chance you can share the report or your source?

[Φίλιππος @phileeppos]

@obvs___ @tleilax___ @r_walk7 Hold on, so they are saying 12.8 million barrels exited the strait over the weekend? Or 6.4 million barrels total?